Série B Brasil 2026 Promotion Race
Brasileirão Série B 2026
Every Série B team ranked by their live promotion probability — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Promotion Race — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 36.7% |
| 2 | Fortaleza | 30.8% |
| 3 | São Bernardo | 27.5% |
| 4 | Criciúma | 27.4% |
| 5 | Juventude | 27.1% |
| 6 | Ceará | 26.1% |
| 7 | Sport | 25.9% |
| 8 | Náutico | 22.7% |
| 9 | Operário-PR | 21.9% |
| 10 | Botafogo-SP | 19.1% |
| 11 | Novorizontino | 18.7% |
| 12 | Avaí | 18.7% |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 18.5% |
| 14 | Atlético-GO | 15.4% |
| 15 | Ponte Preta | 15.2% |
| 16 | Goiás | 15.2% |
| 17 | Cuiabá | 14.4% |
| 18 | Londrina | 9.7% |
| 19 | CRB | 4.5% |
| 20 | América-MG | 4.4% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 6
About This Race
The top four teams in Série B earn direct promotion to the Brasileirão. This live model shows the full standings sorted by promotion probability.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the promotion places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Brasileirão Série B 2026 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.