Serie A 26/27 — Round 3 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 13.9% |
| 2 |  Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 11.4% |
| 3 |  Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 11.0% |
| 4 |  Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 9.3% |
| 5 |  Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 8.9% |
| 6 |  Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 7.4% |
| 7 |  Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 6.8% |
| 8 |  Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 6.4% |
| 9 |  Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 4.7% |
| 10 |  Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 4.0% |
| 11 |  Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 3.0% |
| 12 |  Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 2.8% |
| 13 |  Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 2.5% |
| 14 |  Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 1.8% |
| 15 |  Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 1.2% |
| 16 |  Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 1.2% |
| 17 |  Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 1.1% |
| 18 |  Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 1.0% |
| 19 |  Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 0.9% |
| 20 |  Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 0.6% |
Probability of access to the Champions League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 34.5% |
| 2 | Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 29.7% |
| 3 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 29.1% |
| 4 | Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 25.9% |
| 5 | Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 25.3% |
| 6 | Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 21.7% |
| 7 | Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 20.4% |
| 8 | Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 19.5% |
| 9 | Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 15.5% |
| 10 | Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 13.3% |
| 11 | Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 10.8% |
| 12 | Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 10.5% |
| 13 | Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 9.6% |
| 14 | Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 7.6% |
| 15 | Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 5.0% |
| 16 | Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 5.0% |
| 17 | Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 4.9% |
| 18 | Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 4.6% |
| 19 | Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 4.3% |
| 20 | Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 2.9% |
Probability of access to the Europa League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 14.1% |
| 2 | Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 13.9% |
| 3 | Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 13.8% |
| 4 | Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 13.6% |
| 5 | Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 13.5% |
| 6 | Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 13.0% |
| 7 | Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 12.9% |
| 8 | Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 12.8% |
| 9 | Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 11.5% |
| 10 | Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 10.9% |
| 11 | Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 9.6% |
| 12 | Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 9.4% |
| 13 | Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 9.3% |
| 14 | Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 8.0% |
| 15 | Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 6.1% |
| 16 | Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 6.0% |
| 17 | Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 6.0% |
| 18 | Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 5.7% |
| 19 | Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 5.6% |
| 20 | Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 4.3% |
Probability of access to the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 5.9% |
| 2 | Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 5.9% |
| 3 | Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 5.9% |
| 4 | Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 5.8% |
| 5 | Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 5.8% |
| 6 | Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 5.8% |
| 7 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 5.7% |
| 8 | Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 5.6% |
| 9 | Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 5.6% |
| 10 | Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 5.4% |
| 11 | Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 5.3% |
| 12 | Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 5.3% |
| 13 | Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 5.3% |
| 14 | Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 4.7% |
| 15 | Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 3.9% |
| 16 | Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 3.8% |
| 17 | Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 3.8% |
| 18 | Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 3.8% |
| 19 | Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 3.8% |
| 20 | Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 3.0% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 34.8% |
| 2 | Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 28.7% |
| 3 | Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 28.3% |
| 4 | Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 28.1% |
| 5 | Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 27.8% |
| 6 | Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 27.6% |
| 7 | Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 18.9% |
| 8 | Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 15.0% |
| 9 | Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 14.9% |
| 10 | Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 11 | Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 11.4% |
| 12 | Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 13 | Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 14 | Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 6.8% |
| 15 | Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 6.6% |
| 16 | Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 17 | Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 18 | Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 19 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 20 | Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
Round 3 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Roma#1Win: 11.4%UCL: 29.7%UEL: 13.8%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 4.0% | 3 | 9 | 11% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
2 | Inter#2Win: 11.0%UCL: 29.1%UEL: 14.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 4.0% | 3 | 9 | 11% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
3↑3 | Lazio#3Win: 13.9%UCL: 34.5%UEL: 13.9%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 2.8% | 3 | 9 | 14% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 3% |
4↓1 | Milan#4Win: 6.4%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 13.0%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 6.9% | 3 | 7 | 6% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
5↓1 | Juventus#5Win: 8.9%UCL: 25.3%UEL: 13.5%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 3 | 7 | 9% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 5% |
6↑2 | Como#6Win: 9.3%UCL: 25.9%UEL: 13.6%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 5.0% | 3 | 7 | 9% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 5% |
7↑2 | Frosinone#7Win: 7.4%UCL: 21.7%UEL: 12.9%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.6% | 3 | 6 | 7% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
8↓3 | Atalanta#8Win: 6.8%UCL: 20.4%UEL: 12.8%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 6.8% | 3 | 6 | 7% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
9↑3 | Cagliari#9Win: 4.7%UCL: 15.5%UEL: 11.5%ECL: 5.8%Releg: 9.1% | 3 | 6 | 5% | 16% | 12% | 6% | 9% |
10↑1 | Sassuolo#10Win: 4.0%UCL: 13.3%UEL: 10.9%ECL: 5.6%Releg: 11.4% | 3 | 4 | 4% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 11% |
11↓4 | Udinese#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.6%UEL: 9.3%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 15.0% | 3 | 4 | 3% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 15% |
12↓2 | Napoli#12Win: 3.0%UCL: 10.8%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.3% | 3 | 3 | 3% | 11% | 10% | 5% | 14% |
13↑1 | Torino#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 7.6%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 4.7%Releg: 18.9% | 3 | 3 | 2% | 8% | 8% | 5% | 19% |
14↓1 | Lecce#14Win: 2.8%UCL: 10.5%UEL: 9.4%ECL: 5.3%Releg: 14.9% | 3 | 3 | 3% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 15% |
15↑2 | Parma#15Win: 0.9%UCL: 4.3%UEL: 5.6%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.3% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 28% |
16↑2 | Monza#16Win: 0.6%UCL: 2.9%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 35% |
17↓2 | Bologna#17Win: 1.0%UCL: 4.6%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 27.6% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 28% |
18↑1 | Venezia#18Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.9%Releg: 27.8% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 28% |
19↓3 | Genoa#19Win: 1.2%UCL: 5.0%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.1% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 28% |
20 | Fiorentina#20Win: 1.1%UCL: 4.9%UEL: 6.0%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 28.7% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 29% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Venezia#18Winner: 1.2%Champions League Groups: 5.0%Europe League Groups: 6.0%Conference League Qualifying: 3.9%Relegation: 27.8%6:45 PMFiorentina#20Winner: 1.1%Champions League Groups: 4.9%Europe League Groups: 6.0%Conference League Qualifying: 3.8%Relegation: 28.7%
6:45 PMFiorentina#20Winner: 1.1%Champions League Groups: 4.9%Europe League Groups: 6.0%Conference League Qualifying: 3.8%Relegation: 28.7%2%
90%
Genoa#19Winner: 1.2%Champions League Groups: 5.0%Europe League Groups: 6.1%Conference League Qualifying: 3.8%Relegation: 28.1%1:00 PMFrosinone#7Winner: 7.4%Champions League Groups: 21.7%Europe League Groups: 12.9%Conference League Qualifying: 5.8%Relegation: 6.6%
1:00 PMFrosinone#7Winner: 7.4%Champions League Groups: 21.7%Europe League Groups: 12.9%Conference League Qualifying: 5.8%Relegation: 6.6%26%
46%
Lecce#14Winner: 2.8%Champions League Groups: 10.5%Europe League Groups: 9.4%Conference League Qualifying: 5.3%Relegation: 14.9%1:00 PMMonza#16Winner: 0.6%Champions League Groups: 2.9%Europe League Groups: 4.3%Conference League Qualifying: 3.0%Relegation: 34.8%
1:00 PMMonza#16Winner: 0.6%Champions League Groups: 2.9%Europe League Groups: 4.3%Conference League Qualifying: 3.0%Relegation: 34.8%2%
91%
Como#6Winner: 9.3%Champions League Groups: 25.9%Europe League Groups: 13.6%Conference League Qualifying: 5.9%Relegation: 5.0%4:30 PMParma#15Winner: 0.9%Champions League Groups: 4.3%Europe League Groups: 5.6%Conference League Qualifying: 3.8%Relegation: 28.3%
4:30 PMParma#15Winner: 0.9%Champions League Groups: 4.3%Europe League Groups: 5.6%Conference League Qualifying: 3.8%Relegation: 28.3%24%
49%
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Roma's UCL probability dropped from 56.2% to 29.7% (-26.5%).
- ↓Monza's Releg probability dropped from 47.2% to 34.8% (-12.4%).
- ↑Como's UCL probability climbed from 13.7% to 25.9% (+12.2%).
- ↓Frosinone's UCL probability dropped from 33.2% to 21.7% (-11.5%).
- ↑Cagliari's UCL probability climbed from 4% to 15.5% (+11.5%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Serie A 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Serie A 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Serie A 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Roma currently have the highest title probability at 11%. With 35 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Serie A 26/27?
- Monza currently faces the highest relegation risk at 35%, followed by Fiorentina at 29%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Serie A 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Serie A 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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