Serie A 26/27 — Round 5 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 16.5% |
| 2 |  Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 12.9% |
| 3 |  Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 12.4% |
| 4 |  Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 9.0% |
| 5 |  Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 8.4% |
| 6 |  Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 8.0% |
| 7 |  Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 7.9% |
| 8 |  Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 7.6% |
| 9 |  Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 3.5% |
| 10 |  Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 3.4% |
| 11 |  Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 2.5% |
| 12 |  Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 2.4% |
| 13 |  Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 1.4% |
| 14 |  Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 0.8% |
| 15 |  Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 0.8% |
| 16 |  Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 0.8% |
| 17 |  Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 0.5% |
| 18 |  Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 0.5% |
| 19 |  Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 0.4% |
| 20 |  Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 0.3% |
Probability of access to the Champions League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 39.6% |
| 2 | Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 33.7% |
| 3 | Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 33.3% |
| 4 | Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 26.3% |
| 5 | Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 24.7% |
| 6 | Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 24.1% |
| 7 | Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 23.8% |
| 8 | Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 23.4% |
| 9 | Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 12.7% |
| 10 | Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 12.6% |
| 11 | Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 9.8% |
| 12 | Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 9.5% |
| 13 | Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 5.8% |
| 14 | Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 4.0% |
| 15 | Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 3.9% |
| 16 | Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 3.9% |
| 17 | Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 2.5% |
| 18 | Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 2.4% |
| 19 | Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 2.2% |
| 20 | Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 1.7% |
Probability of access to the Europa League group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 15.1% |
| 2 | Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 15.0% |
| 3 | Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 14.9% |
| 4 | Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 14.7% |
| 5 | Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 14.6% |
| 6 | Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 14.5% |
| 7 | Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 14.4% |
| 8 | Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 14.3% |
| 9 | Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 11.4% |
| 10 | Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 11.3% |
| 11 | Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 10.1% |
| 12 | Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 9.6% |
| 13 | Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 7.3% |
| 14 | Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 5.8% |
| 15 | Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 5.8% |
| 16 | Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 5.8% |
| 17 | Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 4.2% |
| 18 | Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 4.1% |
| 19 | Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 3.8% |
| 20 | Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 3.2% |
Probability of access to the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 6.4% |
| 2 | Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 6.3% |
| 3 | Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 6.3% |
| 4 | Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 6.2% |
| 5 | Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 6.2% |
| 6 | Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 6.0% |
| 7 | Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 6.0% |
| 8 | Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 5.9% |
| 9 | Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 5.7% |
| 10 | Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 5.7% |
| 11 | Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 5.5% |
| 12 | Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 5.4% |
| 13 | Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 4.6% |
| 14 | Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 4.1% |
| 15 | Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 4.1% |
| 16 | Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 4.0% |
| 17 | Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 3.2% |
| 18 | Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 3.0% |
| 19 | Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 2.8% |
| 20 | Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 2.5% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 40.8% |
| 2 | Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 34.8% |
| 3 | Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 34.4% |
| 4 | Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 31.3% |
| 5 | Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 6 | Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 23.8% |
| 7 | Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 23.6% |
| 8 | Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 19.9% |
| 9 | Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 13.4% |
| 10 | Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 11.9% |
| 11 | Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 12 | Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 13 | Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 14 | Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 15 | Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 16 | Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 17 | Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 18 | Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 19 | Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 20 | Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 1.4% |
Round 5 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Roma#1Win: 12.9%UCL: 33.7%UEL: 14.9%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 2.0% | 5 | 13 | 13% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
2 | Inter#2Win: 12.4%UCL: 33.3%UEL: 15.1%ECL: 5.9%Releg: 2.1% | 5 | 13 | 12% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
3↑1 | Lazio#3Win: 16.5%UCL: 39.6%UEL: 14.6%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 1.4% | 5 | 13 | 17% | 40% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
4↑1 | Cagliari#4Win: 9.0%UCL: 26.3%UEL: 15.0%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 2.9% | 5 | 12 | 9% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% |
5↑1 | Milan#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 23.4%UEL: 14.4%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.9% | 5 | 11 | 8% | 23% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
6↑2 | Juventus#6Win: 8.0%UCL: 24.1%UEL: 14.5%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.9% | 5 | 10 | 8% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 4% |
7↑2 | Frosinone#7Win: 8.4%UCL: 24.7%UEL: 14.7%ECL: 6.3%Releg: 3.8% | 5 | 10 | 8% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 4% |
8↓5 | Como#8Win: 7.9%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 14.3%ECL: 6.4%Releg: 3.9% | 5 | 10 | 8% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 4% |
9↑1 | Napoli#9Win: 3.4%UCL: 12.7%UEL: 11.3%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.0% | 5 | 7 | 3% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 9% |
10↓3 | Sassuolo#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 12.6%UEL: 11.4%ECL: 6.0%Releg: 9.1% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 13% | 11% | 6% | 9% |
11 | Atalanta#11Win: 2.5%UCL: 9.8%UEL: 10.1%ECL: 5.7%Releg: 11.9% | 5 | 6 | 3% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 12% |
12 | Lecce#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 9.5%UEL: 9.6%ECL: 5.5%Releg: 13.4% | 5 | 6 | 2% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 13% |
13 | Udinese#13Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.6% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 24% |
14 | Torino#14Win: 0.8%UCL: 4.0%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 23.8% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 24% |
15↑1 | Parma#15Win: 0.8%UCL: 3.9%UEL: 5.8%ECL: 4.0%Releg: 24.2% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 24% |
16↑1 | Monza#16Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.4%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 3.2%Releg: 31.3% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 31% |
17↓2 | Fiorentina#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 5.8%UEL: 7.3%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 19.9% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 20% |
18 | Bologna#18Win: 0.4%UCL: 2.2%UEL: 3.8%ECL: 2.8%Releg: 34.4% | 5 | 2 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 34% |
19 | Genoa#19Win: 0.5%UCL: 2.5%UEL: 4.1%ECL: 3.0%Releg: 34.8% | 5 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 35% |
20 | Venezia#20Win: 0.3%UCL: 1.7%UEL: 3.2%ECL: 2.5%Releg: 40.8% | 5 | 0 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 41% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Genoa#19Winner: 0.5%Champions League Groups: 2.5%Europe League Groups: 4.1%Conference League Qualifying: 3.0%Relegation: 34.8%1:00 PMFiorentina#17Winner: 1.4%Champions League Groups: 5.8%Europe League Groups: 7.3%Conference League Qualifying: 4.6%Relegation: 19.9%
1:00 PMFiorentina#17Winner: 1.4%Champions League Groups: 5.8%Europe League Groups: 7.3%Conference League Qualifying: 4.6%Relegation: 19.9%22%
51%
Como#8Winner: 7.9%Champions League Groups: 23.8%Europe League Groups: 14.3%Conference League Qualifying: 6.4%Relegation: 3.9%10:30 AMRoma#1Winner: 12.9%Champions League Groups: 33.7%Europe League Groups: 14.9%Conference League Qualifying: 5.7%Relegation: 2.0%
10:30 AMRoma#1Winner: 12.9%Champions League Groups: 33.7%Europe League Groups: 14.9%Conference League Qualifying: 5.7%Relegation: 2.0%30%
44%
Lazio#3Winner: 16.5%Champions League Groups: 39.6%Europe League Groups: 14.6%Conference League Qualifying: 5.4%Relegation: 1.4%1:00 PMMonza#16Winner: 0.5%Champions League Groups: 2.4%Europe League Groups: 4.2%Conference League Qualifying: 3.2%Relegation: 31.3%
1:00 PMMonza#16Winner: 0.5%Champions League Groups: 2.4%Europe League Groups: 4.2%Conference League Qualifying: 3.2%Relegation: 31.3%52%
23%
Lecce#12Winner: 2.4%Champions League Groups: 9.5%Europe League Groups: 9.6%Conference League Qualifying: 5.5%Relegation: 13.4%1:00 PMBologna#18Winner: 0.4%Champions League Groups: 2.2%Europe League Groups: 3.8%Conference League Qualifying: 2.8%Relegation: 34.4%
1:00 PMBologna#18Winner: 0.4%Champions League Groups: 2.2%Europe League Groups: 3.8%Conference League Qualifying: 2.8%Relegation: 34.4%5%
83%
After Round 5: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Venezia's Releg probability dropped from 68.3% to 40.8% (-27.5%).
- ↓Roma's UCL probability dropped from 58.1% to 33.7% (-24.4%).
- ↑Lazio's UCL probability climbed from 22.9% to 39.6% (+16.7%).
- ↑Juventus's UCL probability climbed from 7.6% to 24.1% (+16.5%).
- ↑Bologna's Releg probability climbed from 18.6% to 34.4% (+15.8%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Serie A 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Serie A 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Serie A 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Roma currently have the highest title probability at 13%. With 33 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Serie A 26/27?
- Venezia currently faces the highest relegation risk at 41%, followed by Genoa at 35%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Serie A 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Serie A 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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