Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?

Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Belgium currently have the highest title probability at 13%. With 8 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.

How does CupChances calculate FIFA World Cup 2026 probabilities?

Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.

How often are the FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions updated?

Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

FIFA World Cup 2026

Preview edition

Expected champion

Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.

Belgium12.8%→

Group standings

Current rankings inside each group, plus each team's knockout probability.

Group A

#	Team	Knockout
1	Czech Republic	78.6%
2	Mexico	92.1%
3	South Africa	55.2%
4	South Korea	17.2%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group B

#	Team	Knockout
1	Bosnia and Herzegovina	53.5%
2	Canada	71.0%
3	Qatar	58.5%
4	Switzerland	87.0%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group C

#	Team	Knockout
1	Brazil	94.4%
2	Haiti	30.9%
3	Morocco	75.7%
4	Scotland	63.1%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group D

#	Team	Knockout
1	Australia	81.6%
2	Paraguay	75.9%
3	Turkey	81.6%
4	United States	23.6%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group E

#	Team	Knockout
1	Curaçao	65.7%
2	Ecuador	87.2%
3	Germany	95.4%
4	Ivory Coast	24.6%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group F

#	Team	Knockout
1	Japan	65.6%
2	Netherlands	84.6%
3	Sweden	68.7%
4	Tunisia	59.2%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group G

#	Team	Knockout
1	Belgium	94.7%
2	Egypt	84.9%
3	Iran	22.4%
4	New Zealand	59.8%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group H

#	Team	Knockout
1	Cape Verde	24.3%
2	Saudi Arabia	64.9%
3	Spain	93.8%
4	Uruguay	90.0%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group I

#	Team	Knockout
1	France	93.2%
2	Iraq	37.7%
3	Norway	64.0%
4	Senegal	80.4%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group J

#	Team	Knockout
1	Algeria	71.7%
2	Argentina	95.4%
3	Austria	71.1%
4	Jordan	40.1%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group K

#	Team	Knockout
1	Colombia	83.3%
2	DR Congo	20.7%
3	Portugal	91.2%
4	Uzbekistan	57.4%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group L

#	Team	Knockout
1	Croatia	83.2%
2	England	91.7%
3	Ghana	42.0%
4	Panama	48.5%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Jun 11

Mexico#7Winner: 5.4%Final: 11.7%Semifinals: 21.7%Quarterfinals: 41.3%Round of 16: 65.8%Knockout Stage: 92.1%Group Stage Exit: 7.9%

7:00 PM

South Africa#32Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.6%Semifinals: 1.9%Quarterfinals: 7.1%Round of 16: 20.4%Knockout Stage: 55.2%Group Stage Exit: 44.8%

Jun 12

South Korea#42Final: 0.1%Semifinals: 0.3%Quarterfinals: 1.3%Round of 16: 4.7%Knockout Stage: 17.2%Group Stage Exit: 82.8%

2:00 AM

Czech Republic#20Winner: 0.9%Final: 2.8%Semifinals: 7.1%Quarterfinals: 20.1%Round of 16: 42.7%Knockout Stage: 78.6%Group Stage Exit: 21.4%

Canada#27Winner: 0.5%Final: 1.5%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 14.6%Round of 16: 32.7%Knockout Stage: 71.0%Group Stage Exit: 29.0%

7:00 PM

Bosnia and Herzegovina#33Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.7%Semifinals: 2.2%Quarterfinals: 8.1%Round of 16: 21.0%Knockout Stage: 53.5%Group Stage Exit: 46.5%

Jun 13

United States#43Final: 0.1%Semifinals: 0.3%Quarterfinals: 1.2%Round of 16: 4.8%Knockout Stage: 23.6%Group Stage Exit: 76.4%

1:00 AM

Paraguay#29Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.5%Semifinals: 4.0%Quarterfinals: 10.9%Round of 16: 25.9%Knockout Stage: 75.9%Group Stage Exit: 24.1%

Qatar#30Winner: 0.3%Final: 1.0%Semifinals: 3.0%Quarterfinals: 10.3%Round of 16: 24.6%Knockout Stage: 58.5%Group Stage Exit: 41.5%

7:00 PM

Switzerland#14Winner: 2.1%Final: 5.1%Semifinals: 11.4%Quarterfinals: 29.2%Round of 16: 52.4%Knockout Stage: 87.0%Group Stage Exit: 13.0%

Brazil#2Winner: 12.0%Final: 18.1%Semifinals: 29.3%Quarterfinals: 48.0%Round of 16: 71.4%Knockout Stage: 94.4%Group Stage Exit: 5.6%

10:00 PM

Morocco#19Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.8%Semifinals: 7.2%Quarterfinals: 16.3%Round of 16: 39.6%Knockout Stage: 75.7%Group Stage Exit: 24.3%

Jun 14

Haiti#44Final: 0.2%Semifinals: 0.7%Quarterfinals: 2.4%Round of 16: 9.6%Knockout Stage: 30.9%Group Stage Exit: 69.1%

1:00 AM

Scotland#31Winner: 0.3%Final: 0.9%Semifinals: 3.1%Quarterfinals: 8.9%Round of 16: 26.1%Knockout Stage: 63.1%Group Stage Exit: 36.9%

Australia#18Winner: 1.0%Final: 3.1%Semifinals: 6.9%Quarterfinals: 15.9%Round of 16: 32.8%Knockout Stage: 81.6%Group Stage Exit: 18.4%

4:00 AM

Turkey#24Winner: 0.6%Final: 2.0%Semifinals: 5.4%Quarterfinals: 13.5%Round of 16: 30.3%Knockout Stage: 81.6%Group Stage Exit: 18.4%

Germany#5Winner: 5.6%Final: 11.1%Semifinals: 21.8%Quarterfinals: 34.9%Round of 16: 62.1%Knockout Stage: 95.4%Group Stage Exit: 4.6%

5:00 PM

Curaçao#36Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.4%Semifinals: 1.4%Quarterfinals: 4.9%Round of 16: 18.1%Knockout Stage: 65.7%Group Stage Exit: 34.3%

Netherlands#8Winner: 4.9%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 18.3%Quarterfinals: 34.2%Round of 16: 56.4%Knockout Stage: 84.6%Group Stage Exit: 15.4%

8:00 PM

Japan#17Winner: 1.4%Final: 3.6%Semifinals: 8.3%Quarterfinals: 18.6%Round of 16: 36.1%Knockout Stage: 65.6%Group Stage Exit: 34.4%

FIFA World Cup 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?: Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Belgium currently have the highest title probability at 13%. With 8 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
How does CupChances calculate FIFA World Cup 2026 probabilities?: Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions updated?: Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.