Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?

Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, France currently have the highest title probability at 12%. With 3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.

How does CupChances calculate FIFA World Cup 2026 probabilities?

Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.

How often are the FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions updated?

Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

FIFA World Cup 2026 — June 13, 2026

Updated at 6/13/26, 10:40 PM

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway in the United States, Mexico and Canada, with a record 48 teams competing for the trophy. CupChances runs millions of Monte Carlo simulations after every match to track each team's live odds of winning the title, reaching the final, and advancing out of the group stage.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup features 48 teams across 12 groups (A–L), with the top 2 from each group plus the 8 best third-place teams advancing to a round of 32. The tournament runs June 11 – July 19, 2026 across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.

Expected champion

Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.

France12.4%→

SIMULATOR

Reorder teams in each group, then click any match to fix the result. CupChances probabilities are used by default.

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Group standings

Current rankings inside each group, plus each team's knockout probability.

Group A

#	Team	P	GD	Knockout
1	Mexico	3	2	98.2%
2	South Korea	3	1	38.5%
3	Czech Republic	0	-1	62.1%
4	South Africa	0	-2	39.4%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group B

#	Team	P	Knockout
1	Switzerland	1	91.7%
2	Canada	1	64.1%
3	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1	57.9%
4	Qatar	1	53.4%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group C

#	Team	P	GD	Knockout
1	Scotland	3	1	66.1%
2	Brazil	1	0	91.1%
3	Morocco	1	0	85.6%
4	Haiti	0	-1	29.4%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group D

#	Team	P	GD	Knockout
1	United States	3	3	98.2%
2	Turkey	0	0	70.0%
3	Australia	0	0	56.3%
4	Paraguay	0	-3	30.0%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group E

#	Team	Knockout
1	Germany	96.0%
2	Ecuador	87.6%
3	Curaçao	68.6%
4	Ivory Coast	20.9%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group F

#	Team	Knockout
1	Netherlands	88.5%
2	Tunisia	64.7%
3	Sweden	64.1%
4	Japan	60.9%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group G

#	Team	Knockout
1	Belgium	96.5%
2	Egypt	80.9%
3	New Zealand	66.2%
4	Iran	18.9%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group H

#	Team	Knockout
1	Spain	94.7%
2	Uruguay	91.3%
3	Saudi Arabia	65.6%
4	Cape Verde	21.6%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group I

#	Team	Knockout
1	France	94.7%
2	Senegal	76.6%
3	Norway	69.4%
4	Iraq	35.0%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group J

#	Team	Knockout
1	Argentina	95.4%
2	Austria	71.2%
3	Algeria	66.8%
4	Jordan	47.2%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group K

#	Team	Knockout
1	Portugal	93.1%
2	Colombia	88.5%
3	Uzbekistan	52.5%
4	DR Congo	17.2%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Group L

#	Team	Knockout
1	England	92.8%
2	Croatia	80.0%
3	Panama	53.1%
4	Ghana	43.8%

Knockout: top 32 oddsWinner: sorted on detail page

Results

Sat, Jun 13

Qatar1 – 1Switzerland

Brazil1 – 1Morocco

Haiti0 – 1Scotland

Fri, Jun 12

Canada1 – 1Bosnia and Herzegovina

United States4 – 1Paraguay

Thu, Jun 11

Mexico2 – 0South Africa

South Korea2 – 1Czech Republic

What Changed — June 13, 2026

↑United States's Knockout probability climbed from 24.2% to 98.2% (+74%).
↓Paraguay's Knockout probability dropped from 76.1% to 30% (-46.1%).
↓Australia's Knockout probability dropped from 81.3% to 56.3% (-25%).
↓Turkey's Knockout probability dropped from 81.6% to 70% (-11.6%).
↓Sweden's Round of 16 probability dropped from 38.2% to 26.8% (-11.4%).

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Jun 14

Australia#26Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.5%Semifinals: 3.1%Quarterfinals: 7.8%Round of 16: 16.5%Knockout Stage: 56.3%Group Stage Exit: 43.7%

4:00 AM

Turkey#23Winner: 0.6%Final: 2.1%Semifinals: 4.4%Quarterfinals: 10.5%Round of 16: 21.9%Knockout Stage: 70.0%Group Stage Exit: 30.0%

Germany#4Winner: 9.2%Final: 16.5%Semifinals: 27.5%Quarterfinals: 39.0%Round of 16: 68.7%Knockout Stage: 96.0%Group Stage Exit: 4.0%

5:00 PM

Curaçao#34Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.6%Semifinals: 1.7%Quarterfinals: 5.3%Round of 16: 20.5%Knockout Stage: 68.6%Group Stage Exit: 31.4%

Netherlands#7Winner: 5.3%Final: 9.8%Semifinals: 15.9%Quarterfinals: 32.5%Round of 16: 56.3%Knockout Stage: 88.5%Group Stage Exit: 11.5%

8:00 PM

Japan#21Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.8%Semifinals: 5.4%Quarterfinals: 12.9%Round of 16: 24.5%Knockout Stage: 60.9%Group Stage Exit: 39.1%

Ivory Coast#43Final: 0.1%Semifinals: 0.3%Quarterfinals: 1.0%Round of 16: 4.9%Knockout Stage: 20.9%Group Stage Exit: 79.1%

11:00 PM

Ecuador#17Winner: 1.4%Final: 3.9%Semifinals: 8.4%Quarterfinals: 16.2%Round of 16: 45.5%Knockout Stage: 87.6%Group Stage Exit: 12.4%

Jun 15

Sweden#19Winner: 1.2%Final: 3.2%Semifinals: 6.2%Quarterfinals: 14.4%Round of 16: 26.8%Knockout Stage: 64.1%Group Stage Exit: 35.9%

2:00 AM

Tunisia#22Winner: 0.7%Final: 2.2%Semifinals: 4.3%Quarterfinals: 11.6%Round of 16: 24.3%Knockout Stage: 64.7%Group Stage Exit: 35.3%

Spain#11Winner: 3.2%Final: 5.6%Semifinals: 12.6%Quarterfinals: 25.7%Round of 16: 60.3%Knockout Stage: 94.7%Group Stage Exit: 5.3%

4:00 PM

Cape Verde#44Semifinals: 0.1%Quarterfinals: 0.6%Round of 16: 2.9%Knockout Stage: 21.6%Group Stage Exit: 78.4%

Belgium#2Winner: 11.4%Final: 16.1%Semifinals: 30.7%Quarterfinals: 40.0%Round of 16: 70.0%Knockout Stage: 96.5%Group Stage Exit: 3.5%

7:00 PM

Egypt#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 4.6%Quarterfinals: 9.3%Round of 16: 25.0%Knockout Stage: 80.9%Group Stage Exit: 19.1%

Saudi Arabia#37Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.4%Semifinals: 1.7%Quarterfinals: 5.6%Round of 16: 19.7%Knockout Stage: 65.6%Group Stage Exit: 34.4%

10:00 PM

Uruguay#16Winner: 1.5%Final: 3.2%Semifinals: 8.6%Quarterfinals: 19.7%Round of 16: 51.1%Knockout Stage: 91.3%Group Stage Exit: 8.7%

Jun 16

Iran#46Semifinals: 0.2%Quarterfinals: 0.5%Round of 16: 2.4%Knockout Stage: 18.9%Group Stage Exit: 81.1%

1:00 AM

New Zealand#45Final: 0.2%Semifinals: 1.2%Quarterfinals: 3.1%Round of 16: 12.8%Knockout Stage: 66.2%Group Stage Exit: 33.8%

France#1Winner: 12.4%Final: 18.5%Semifinals: 26.8%Quarterfinals: 34.5%Round of 16: 67.4%Knockout Stage: 94.7%Group Stage Exit: 5.3%

7:00 PM

Senegal#15Winner: 1.7%Final: 4.0%Semifinals: 7.6%Quarterfinals: 13.6%Round of 16: 36.2%Knockout Stage: 76.6%Group Stage Exit: 23.4%

FIFA World Cup 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?: Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, France currently have the highest title probability at 12%. With 3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
How does CupChances calculate FIFA World Cup 2026 probabilities?: Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions updated?: Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.