2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 4 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC#1Win: 22.0%Promo: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Releg: 0.7% | 22.0% |
| 2 |  Nürnberg#2Win: 14.7%Promo: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.6% | 14.7% |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 11.6%Promo: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Releg: 2.4% | 11.6% |
| 4 |  Kaiserslautern#4Win: 7.6%Promo: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Releg: 3.5% | 7.6% |
| 5 |  Magdeburg#5Win: 6.7%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Releg: 4.6% | 6.7% |
| 6 |  FC Heidenheim#6Win: 6.5%Promo: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Releg: 4.7% | 6.5% |
| 7 |  Bochum#8Win: 6.2%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Releg: 4.9% | 6.2% |
| 8 |  Osnabrück#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Releg: 6.9% | 4.1% |
| 9 |  Bielefeld#9Win: 3.6%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 8.7% | 3.6% |
| 10 |  Cottbus#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.2% | 3.4% |
| 11 |  Hannover 96#12Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Releg: 9.5% | 3.4% |
| 12 |  Greuther Fürth#11Win: 3.3%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.4% | 3.3% |
| 13 |  St. Pauli#13Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Releg: 11.9% | 2.5% |
| 14 |  Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Releg: 17.8% | 1.3% |
| 15 |  Holstein Kiel#15Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Releg: 21.3% | 1.0% |
| 16 |  Karlsruher SC#16Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Releg: 21.9% | 1.0% |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98#18Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Releg: 27.3% | 0.8% |
| 18 |  Braunschweig#17Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Releg: 33.8% | 0.4% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 22.0%Promo: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Releg: 0.7% | 37.0% |
| 2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 14.7%Promo: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.6% | 26.6% |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 11.6%Promo: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Releg: 2.4% | 22.3% |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 7.6%Promo: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Releg: 3.5% | 15.7% |
| 5 | Magdeburg#5Win: 6.7%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Releg: 4.6% | 14.1% |
| 6 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 6.5%Promo: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Releg: 4.7% | 13.6% |
| 7 | Bochum#8Win: 6.2%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Releg: 4.9% | 13.1% |
| 8 | Osnabrück#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Releg: 6.9% | 9.1% |
| 9 | Bielefeld#9Win: 3.6%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 8.7% | 8.1% |
| 10 | Cottbus#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.2% | 7.6% |
| 11 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 3.3%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.4% | 7.6% |
| 12 | Hannover 96#12Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Releg: 9.5% | 7.5% |
| 13 | St. Pauli#13Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Releg: 11.9% | 5.9% |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Releg: 17.8% | 3.4% |
| 15 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Releg: 21.3% | 2.5% |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC#16Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Releg: 21.9% | 2.5% |
| 17 | Darmstadt 98#18Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Releg: 27.3% | 2.1% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#17Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Releg: 33.8% | 1.2% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 22.0%Promo: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Releg: 0.7% | 11.6% |
| 2 | Nürnberg#2Win: 14.7%Promo: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.6% | 10.2% |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 11.6%Promo: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Releg: 2.4% | 9.6% |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 7.6%Promo: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Releg: 3.5% | 8.1% |
| 5 | Magdeburg#5Win: 6.7%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Releg: 4.6% | 7.5% |
| 6 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 6.5%Promo: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Releg: 4.7% | 7.2% |
| 7 | Bochum#8Win: 6.2%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Releg: 4.9% | 7.1% |
| 8 | Osnabrück#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Releg: 6.9% | 5.6% |
| 9 | Bielefeld#9Win: 3.6%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 8.7% | 5.1% |
| 10 | Cottbus#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.2% | 4.8% |
| 11 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 3.3%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.4% | 4.8% |
| 12 | Hannover 96#12Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Releg: 9.5% | 4.7% |
| 13 | St. Pauli#13Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Releg: 11.9% | 4.0% |
| 14 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Releg: 17.8% | 2.6% |
| 15 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Releg: 21.3% | 2.1% |
| 16 | Karlsruher SC#16Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Releg: 21.9% | 2.0% |
| 17 | Darmstadt 98#18Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Releg: 27.3% | 1.8% |
| 18 | Braunschweig#17Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Releg: 33.8% | 1.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braunschweig#17Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Releg: 33.8% | 33.8% |
| 2 | Darmstadt 98#18Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Releg: 27.3% | 27.3% |
| 3 | Karlsruher SC#16Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Releg: 21.9% | 21.9% |
| 4 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Releg: 21.3% | 21.3% |
| 5 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Releg: 17.8% | 17.8% |
| 6 | St. Pauli#13Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Releg: 11.9% | 11.9% |
| 7 | Hannover 96#12Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Releg: 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 8 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 3.3%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 9 | Cottbus#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.2% | 9.2% |
| 10 | Bielefeld#9Win: 3.6%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 8.7% | 8.7% |
| 11 | Osnabrück#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Releg: 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 12 | Bochum#8Win: 6.2%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 13 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 6.5%Promo: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Releg: 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 14 | Magdeburg#5Win: 6.7%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Releg: 4.6% | 4.6% |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 7.6%Promo: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Releg: 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 16 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 11.6%Promo: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Releg: 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 17 | Nürnberg#2Win: 14.7%Promo: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 18 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 22.0%Promo: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Releg: 0.7% | 0.7% |
Round 4 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Hertha BSC#1Win: 22.0%Promo: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Releg: 0.7% | 4 | 12 | 22% | 37% | 12% | 1% |
2↓1 | Nürnberg#2Win: 14.7%Promo: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Releg: 1.6% | 4 | 10 | 15% | 27% | 10% | 2% |
3 | VfL Wolfsburg#3Win: 11.6%Promo: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Releg: 2.4% | 4 | 8 | 12% | 22% | 10% | 2% |
4↑1 | Kaiserslautern#4Win: 7.6%Promo: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Releg: 3.5% | 4 | 8 | 8% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
5↓1 | Magdeburg#5Win: 6.7%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Releg: 4.6% | 3 | 6 | 7% | 14% | 8% | 5% |
6↑2 | FC Heidenheim#6Win: 6.5%Promo: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Releg: 4.7% | 3 | 6 | 7% | 14% | 7% | 5% |
7↑5 | Osnabrück#7Win: 4.1%Promo: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Releg: 6.9% | 3 | 6 | 4% | 9% | 6% | 7% |
8↑1 | Bochum#8Win: 6.2%Promo: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Releg: 4.9% | 4 | 6 | 6% | 13% | 7% | 5% |
9↓2 | Arminia Bielefeld#9Win: 3.6%Promo: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Releg: 8.7% | 3 | 4 | 4% | 8% | 5% | 9% |
10 | Energie Cottbus#10Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.2% | 4 | 4 | 3% | 8% | 5% | 9% |
11↓5 | Greuther Fürth#11Win: 3.3%Promo: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Releg: 9.4% | 4 | 4 | 3% | 8% | 5% | 9% |
12↓1 | Hannover 96#12Win: 3.4%Promo: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Releg: 9.5% | 4 | 4 | 3% | 8% | 5% | 10% |
13↑1 | St. Pauli#13Win: 2.5%Promo: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Releg: 11.9% | 4 | 3 | 3% | 6% | 4% | 12% |
14↓1 | Dynamo Dresden#14Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Releg: 17.8% | 4 | 3 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 18% |
15 | Holstein Kiel#15Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Releg: 21.3% | 3 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 2% | 21% |
16 | Karlsruher SC#16Win: 1.0%Promo: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Releg: 21.9% | 3 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 2% | 22% |
17↑1 | Eintracht Braunschweig#17Win: 0.4%Promo: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Releg: 33.8% | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 34% |
18↓1 | Darmstadt 98#18Win: 0.8%Promo: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Releg: 27.3% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 27% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Nürnberg#2Winner: 14.7%Promotion: 26.6%Playoff: 10.2%Relegation: 1.6%4:30 PMHannover 96#12Winner: 3.4%Promotion: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Relegation: 9.5%
4:30 PMHannover 96#12Winner: 3.4%Promotion: 7.5%Playoff: 4.7%Relegation: 9.5%61%
18%
Darmstadt 98#18Winner: 0.8%Promotion: 2.1%Playoff: 1.8%Relegation: 27.3%4:30 PMBielefeld#9Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Relegation: 8.7%
4:30 PMBielefeld#9Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 8.1%Playoff: 5.1%Relegation: 8.7%60%
19%
Braunschweig#17Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 1.2%Playoff: 1.1%Relegation: 33.8%11:00 AMDynamo Dresden#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Relegation: 17.8%
11:00 AMDynamo Dresden#14Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 3.4%Playoff: 2.6%Relegation: 17.8%46%
32%
Magdeburg#5Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Relegation: 4.6%11:00 AMKaiserslautern#4Winner: 7.6%Promotion: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Relegation: 3.5%
11:00 AMKaiserslautern#4Winner: 7.6%Promotion: 15.7%Playoff: 8.1%Relegation: 3.5%47%
27%
Bochum#8Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 13.1%Playoff: 7.1%Relegation: 4.9%11:00 AMGreuther Fürth#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 9.4%
11:00 AMGreuther Fürth#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 9.4%24%
52%
St. Pauli#13Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 5.9%Playoff: 4.0%Relegation: 11.9%6:30 PMVfL Wolfsburg#3Winner: 11.6%Promotion: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Relegation: 2.4%
6:30 PMVfL Wolfsburg#3Winner: 11.6%Promotion: 22.3%Playoff: 9.6%Relegation: 2.4%11%
73%
Karlsruher SC#16Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 2.5%Playoff: 2.0%Relegation: 21.9%11:30 AMCottbus#10Winner: 3.4%Promotion: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 9.2%
11:30 AMCottbus#10Winner: 3.4%Promotion: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 9.2%99%
0%
FC Heidenheim#6Winner: 6.5%Promotion: 13.6%Playoff: 7.2%Relegation: 4.7%11:30 AMHolstein Kiel#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Relegation: 21.3%
11:30 AMHolstein Kiel#15Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 2.5%Playoff: 2.1%Relegation: 21.3%72%
12%
Osnabrück#7Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 9.1%Playoff: 5.6%Relegation: 6.9%11:30 AMHertha BSC#1Winner: 22.0%Promotion: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Relegation: 0.7%
11:30 AMHertha BSC#1Winner: 22.0%Promotion: 37.0%Playoff: 11.6%Relegation: 0.7%17%
63%
Greuther Fürth#11Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 7.6%Playoff: 4.8%Relegation: 9.4%4:30 PMMagdeburg#5Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Relegation: 4.6%
4:30 PMMagdeburg#5Winner: 6.7%Promotion: 14.1%Playoff: 7.5%Relegation: 4.6%After Round 4: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Nürnberg's Promo probability dropped from 89.5% to 26.6% (-62.9%).
- ↓Karlsruher SC's Releg probability dropped from 80.6% to 21.9% (-58.7%).
- ↓Darmstadt 98's Releg probability dropped from 56.9% to 27.3% (-29.6%).
- ↑Dynamo Dresden's Releg probability climbed from 0% to 17.8% (+17.8%).
- ↓Hertha BSC's Playoff probability dropped from 28.6% to 11.6% (-17%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
2. Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Hertha BSC currently have the highest title probability at 22%. With 30 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the 2. Bundesliga 26/27?
- Braunschweig currently faces the highest relegation risk at 34%, followed by Darmstadt 98 at 27%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate 2. Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the 2. Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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