Santos#8 · 41 pts' 2-1 victory over São Paulo#10 · 36 pts on October 2 significantly impacted their championship probabilities. The win elevated Santos#8 · 41 pts' chances of qualifying for the Copa Libertadores from 3.0% to 5.9% and their overall Libertadores qualification probability to 19.7%. This result underscores their upward trend in the competition, moving them closer to securing a spot in one of South America's most prestigious tournaments.
Conversely, São Paulo#10 · 36 pts's prospects dimmed following the loss. Their likelihood of reaching the Libertadores has decreased to a mere 0.5%, while their probability of qualifying for the preliminary stages dropped from 6.9% to 3.3%. Additionally, their chances for a spot in the Copa Sulamericana also took a hit, falling to 63.6%. This reflects a downward trajectory, placing them at risk of missing out on international competition next season.
The implications of this match extend to the relegation battle as well. São Paulo#10 · 36 pts now faces a 3.1% probability of relegation, up from 1.7%, which, although still low, indicates an increasing need for vigilance to stay clear of the drop zone.
As we advance into the final stretch of the Brasileirão, the focus will be on how Santos#8 · 41 pts capitalizes on this victory to strengthen their position in the Libertadores race, while São Paulo#10 · 36 pts must regroup to secure their Sulamericana spot and stave off any relegation threat.