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Brazil Knockout Chances 2026 — 91.9%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #3 · 1 MP

How far can Brazil go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Brazil's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

Brazil FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
10.9%
Winner
8.1%
Group Stage Exit
#3
Position
D
Last 1 matches
Brazil are the clear favourites for Knockout at 91.9%, currently ranked 3rd — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Brazil are 3rd in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 1 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 91.9% chance of knockout — with 86 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 1 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Brazil have recorded 1 draw. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their knockout probability, Brazil's winner chance currently stands at 10.9%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Brazil's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 10.9%
  • Final: 16.4%
  • Semifinals: 28.6%
  • Quarterfinals: 45.7%
  • Round of 16: 69.7%
  • Knockout: 91.9%
  • Group Stage Exit: 8.1%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Belgium Winner ChancesFrance Final ChancesArgentina Semifinals ChancesGermany Quarterfinals ChancesUnited States Quarterfinals ChancesEngland Quarterfinals ChancesNetherlands Quarterfinals Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Brazil#3Winner: 10.9%Final: 16.4%Semifinals: 28.6%Quarterfinals: 45.7%Round of 16: 69.7%Knockout: 91.9%Group Stage Exit: 8.1%12:30 AMHaiti#43Semifinals: 0.1%Quarterfinals: 0.6%Round of 16: 2.6%Knockout: 10.5%Group Stage Exit: 89.5%
Scotland#22Winner: 0.7%Final: 1.9%Semifinals: 6.1%Quarterfinals: 16.8%Round of 16: 42.4%Knockout: 88.0%Group Stage Exit: 12.0%10:00 PMBrazil#3Winner: 10.9%Final: 16.4%Semifinals: 28.6%Quarterfinals: 45.7%Round of 16: 69.7%Knockout: 91.9%Group Stage Exit: 8.1%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-06-13Brazil#3Winner: 10.9%Final: 16.4%Semifinals: 28.6%Quarterfinals: 45.7%Round of 16: 69.7%Knockout: 91.9%Group Stage Exit: 8.1%1 - 1Morocco#17Winner: 1.5%Final: 3.4%Semifinals: 9.2%Quarterfinals: 21.3%Round of 16: 47.5%Knockout: 85.7%Group Stage Exit: 14.3%