The World Cup's knockout stage wasted no time delivering drama. Germany#74 · 6 pts and Paraguay#94 · 4 pts needed a penalty shootout to settle their Round of 32 tie after 90 minutes ended 1-1, and it was Paraguay#94 · 4 pts who held their nerve, winning the shootout 4-3. Germany#74 · 6 pts arrived at the match with an 8.9% chance of winning the tournament and a strong 79.5% shot at reaching the Round of 16, but in a single-elimination match there is no next round to make amends: they are out of the World Cup. Paraguay#94 · 4 pts, given just a 0.1% chance of glory before kickoff, are through instead.
Brazil#68 · 7 pts had a more straightforward night, beating Japan#81 · 5 pts 2-1 to keep their own title push alive. The result is no surprise for a side that carried a healthy 15% chance of winning it all into the match, the best of any team left in their half of the bracket. For Japan#81 · 5 pts, who had been given a 35% shot at reaching the Round of 16, the tournament ends here.
The day's other shock came from Netherlands#67 · 7 pts vs Morocco#72 · 7 pts, level at 1-1 after 90 minutes before Morocco#72 · 7 pts won the shootout 3-2. The Dutch had entered as clear favorites in the tie, sitting on an 82.4% chance of reaching the Round of 16 and a 5.2% shot at the title, but penalties showed no mercy. Morocco#72 · 7 pts, given just a 1% chance of winning the World Cup beforehand, are the ones moving on.
Three results, one lesson repeated: in the knockout stage, today's underdog is tomorrow's quarter-finalist, and there are no second chances for the team that loses. Paraguay#94 · 4 pts, Brazil#68 · 7 pts and Morocco#72 · 7 pts now turn their attention to the Round of 16, where the bracket only gets tougher from here.