Championship 26/27 — Round 6 of 46
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Brom#1Win: 10.9%Promo: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.9% | 10.9% |
| 2 |  Southampton#2Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Releg: 4.9% | 7.5% |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough#7Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Releg: 4.7% | 7.5% |
| 4 |  Swansea City#4Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 7.4% |
| 5 |  Bristol City#8Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Releg: 4.9% | 7.4% |
| 6 |  West Ham#3Win: 7.3%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.8%Releg: 4.9% | 7.3% |
| 7 |  QPR#5Win: 6.9%Promo: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Releg: 4.9% | 6.9% |
| 8 |  Charlton#6Win: 6.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Releg: 5.5% | 6.1% |
| 9 |  Millwall#9Win: 5.8%Promo: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Releg: 6.3% | 5.8% |
| 10 |  Wolverhampton#12Win: 5.0%Promo: 10.2%Playoff: 19.9%Releg: 7.6% | 5.0% |
| 11 |  Norwich City#10Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Releg: 8.2% | 4.0% |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd#11Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.3%Playoff: 17.9%Releg: 8.4% | 4.0% |
| 13 |  Watford#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 15.5%Releg: 11.1% | 3.0% |
| 14 |  Portsmouth#17Win: 2.6%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Releg: 12.8% | 2.6% |
| 15 |  Wrexham#14Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.4%Releg: 12.8% | 2.4% |
| 16 |  Birmingham#15Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Releg: 13.2% | 2.4% |
| 17 |  Stoke City#16Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.3%Playoff: 13.7%Releg: 13.2% | 2.4% |
| 18 |  Lincoln#19Win: 2.0%Promo: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Releg: 16.1% | 2.0% |
| 19 |  Blackburn#18Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Releg: 20.2% | 1.3% |
| 20 |  Cardiff#20Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 24.1% | 0.9% |
| 21 |  Bolton#21Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.3% | 0.9% |
| 22 |  Derby County#22Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.5% | 0.9% |
| 23 |  Burnley#23Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 28.7% | 0.7% |
| 24 |  Preston#24Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 29.1% | 0.7% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Brom#1Win: 10.9%Promo: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.9% | 19.8% |
| 2 | Southampton#2Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Releg: 4.9% | 14.3% |
| 3 | Middlesbrough#7Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Releg: 4.7% | 14.3% |
| 4 | Swansea City#4Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 14.2% |
| 5 | West Ham#3Win: 7.3%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.8%Releg: 4.9% | 14.1% |
| 6 | Bristol City#8Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Releg: 4.9% | 14.1% |
| 7 | QPR#5Win: 6.9%Promo: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Releg: 4.9% | 13.4% |
| 8 | Charlton#6Win: 6.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Releg: 5.5% | 12.0% |
| 9 | Millwall#9Win: 5.8%Promo: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Releg: 6.3% | 11.7% |
| 10 | Wolverhampton#12Win: 5.0%Promo: 10.2%Playoff: 19.9%Releg: 7.6% | 10.2% |
| 11 | Norwich City#10Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Releg: 8.2% | 8.4% |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd#11Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.3%Playoff: 17.9%Releg: 8.4% | 8.3% |
| 13 | Watford#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 15.5%Releg: 11.1% | 6.4% |
| 14 | Portsmouth#17Win: 2.6%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Releg: 12.8% | 5.8% |
| 15 | Stoke City#16Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.3%Playoff: 13.7%Releg: 13.2% | 5.3% |
| 16 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.4%Releg: 12.8% | 5.2% |
| 17 | Birmingham#15Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Releg: 13.2% | 5.2% |
| 18 | Lincoln#19Win: 2.0%Promo: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Releg: 16.1% | 4.3% |
| 19 | Blackburn#18Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Releg: 20.2% | 3.1% |
| 20 | Cardiff#20Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 24.1% | 2.3% |
| 21 | Bolton#21Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.3% | 2.2% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.5% | 2.2% |
| 23 | Burnley#23Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 28.7% | 1.7% |
| 24 | Preston#24Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 29.1% | 1.7% |
Chances of participation in the playoff phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Brom#1Win: 10.9%Promo: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.9% | 27.1% |
| 2 | Middlesbrough#7Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Releg: 4.7% | 24.1% |
| 3 | West Ham#3Win: 7.3%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.8%Releg: 4.9% | 23.8% |
| 4 | Southampton#2Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Releg: 4.9% | 23.7% |
| 5 | Bristol City#8Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Releg: 4.9% | 23.6% |
| 6 | Swansea City#4Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 23.5% |
| 7 | QPR#5Win: 6.9%Promo: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Releg: 4.9% | 23.2% |
| 8 | Charlton#6Win: 6.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Releg: 5.5% | 22.5% |
| 9 | Millwall#9Win: 5.8%Promo: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Releg: 6.3% | 21.5% |
| 10 | Wolverhampton#12Win: 5.0%Promo: 10.2%Playoff: 19.9%Releg: 7.6% | 19.9% |
| 11 | Norwich City#10Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Releg: 8.2% | 18.6% |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd#11Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.3%Playoff: 17.9%Releg: 8.4% | 17.9% |
| 13 | Watford#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 15.5%Releg: 11.1% | 15.5% |
| 14 | Portsmouth#17Win: 2.6%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Releg: 12.8% | 14.5% |
| 15 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.4%Releg: 12.8% | 14.4% |
| 16 | Birmingham#15Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Releg: 13.2% | 14.1% |
| 17 | Stoke City#16Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.3%Playoff: 13.7%Releg: 13.2% | 13.7% |
| 18 | Lincoln#19Win: 2.0%Promo: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Releg: 16.1% | 12.0% |
| 19 | Blackburn#18Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Releg: 20.2% | 9.7% |
| 20 | Cardiff#20Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 24.1% | 8.2% |
| 21 | Bolton#21Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.3% | 7.8% |
| 22 | Derby County#22Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.5% | 7.8% |
| 23 | Burnley#23Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 28.7% | 6.5% |
| 24 | Preston#24Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 29.1% | 6.5% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Preston#24Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 29.1% | 29.1% |
| 2 | Burnley#23Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 28.7% | 28.7% |
| 3 | Derby County#22Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.5% | 25.5% |
| 4 | Bolton#21Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.3% | 25.3% |
| 5 | Cardiff#20Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 24.1% | 24.1% |
| 6 | Blackburn#18Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Releg: 20.2% | 20.2% |
| 7 | Lincoln#19Win: 2.0%Promo: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Releg: 16.1% | 16.1% |
| 8 | Birmingham#15Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Releg: 13.2% | 13.2% |
| 9 | Stoke City#16Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.3%Playoff: 13.7%Releg: 13.2% | 13.2% |
| 10 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.4%Releg: 12.8% | 12.8% |
| 11 | Portsmouth#17Win: 2.6%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Releg: 12.8% | 12.8% |
| 12 | Watford#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 15.5%Releg: 11.1% | 11.1% |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd#11Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.3%Playoff: 17.9%Releg: 8.4% | 8.4% |
| 14 | Norwich City#10Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Releg: 8.2% | 8.2% |
| 15 | Wolverhampton#12Win: 5.0%Promo: 10.2%Playoff: 19.9%Releg: 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 16 | Millwall#9Win: 5.8%Promo: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Releg: 6.3% | 6.3% |
| 17 | Charlton#6Win: 6.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Releg: 5.5% | 5.5% |
| 18 | Southampton#2Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 19 | West Ham#3Win: 7.3%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.8%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 20 | QPR#5Win: 6.9%Promo: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 21 | Bristol City#8Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Releg: 4.9% | 4.9% |
| 22 | Swansea City#4Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 23 | Middlesbrough#7Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Releg: 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 24 | West Brom#1Win: 10.9%Promo: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.9% | 2.9% |
Round 6 of 46
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | PO | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑4 | West Bromwich Albion#1Win: 10.9%Promo: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Releg: 2.9% | 6 | 13 | 11% | 20% | 27% | 3% |
2↑6 | Southampton#2Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Releg: 4.9% | 6 | 11 | 8% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
3↑6 | West Ham#3Win: 7.3%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.8%Releg: 4.9% | 6 | 11 | 7% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
4↓3 | Swansea City#4Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Releg: 4.8% | 6 | 11 | 7% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
5↓2 | Queens Park Rangers#5Win: 6.9%Promo: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Releg: 4.9% | 6 | 11 | 7% | 13% | 23% | 5% |
6 | Charlton Athletic#6Win: 6.1%Promo: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Releg: 5.5% | 6 | 11 | 6% | 12% | 23% | 6% |
7↓5 | Middlesbrough#7Win: 7.5%Promo: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Releg: 4.7% | 5 | 10 | 8% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
8↓4 | Bristol City#8Win: 7.4%Promo: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Releg: 4.9% | 5 | 10 | 7% | 14% | 24% | 5% |
9↓2 | Millwall#9Win: 5.8%Promo: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Releg: 6.3% | 5 | 9 | 6% | 12% | 22% | 6% |
10↑3 | Norwich City#10Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Releg: 8.2% | 6 | 9 | 4% | 8% | 19% | 8% |
11↑5 | Sheffield United#11Win: 4.0%Promo: 8.3%Playoff: 17.9%Releg: 8.4% | 6 | 9 | 4% | 8% | 18% | 8% |
12↓2 | Wolverhampton#12Win: 5.0%Promo: 10.2%Playoff: 19.9%Releg: 7.6% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 10% | 20% | 8% |
13↑6 | Watford#13Win: 3.0%Promo: 6.4%Playoff: 15.5%Releg: 11.1% | 6 | 8 | 3% | 6% | 16% | 11% |
14↓2 | Wrexham#14Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.4%Releg: 12.8% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 14% | 13% |
15↓4 | Birmingham City#15Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Releg: 13.2% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 14% | 13% |
16↓2 | Stoke City#16Win: 2.4%Promo: 5.3%Playoff: 13.7%Releg: 13.2% | 6 | 7 | 2% | 5% | 14% | 13% |
17↓2 | Portsmouth#17Win: 2.6%Promo: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Releg: 12.8% | 5 | 6 | 3% | 6% | 15% | 13% |
18↓1 | Blackburn Rovers#18Win: 1.3%Promo: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Releg: 20.2% | 6 | 5 | 1% | 3% | 10% | 20% |
19↓1 | Lincoln#19Win: 2.0%Promo: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Releg: 16.1% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 4% | 12% | 16% |
20↑2 | Cardiff#20Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Releg: 24.1% | 6 | 4 | 1% | 2% | 8% | 24% |
21 | Bolton#21Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.3% | 6 | 4 | 1% | 2% | 8% | 25% |
22↓2 | Derby County#22Win: 0.9%Promo: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Releg: 25.5% | 6 | 4 | 1% | 2% | 8% | 26% |
23↑1 | Burnley#23Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 28.7% | 6 | 3 | 1% | 2% | 7% | 29% |
24↓1 | Preston North End#24Win: 0.7%Promo: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Releg: 29.1% | 6 | 3 | 1% | 2% | 7% | 29% |
WinPromoPlayoffReleg
Next matches
Southampton#2Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 14.3%Playoff: 23.7%Relegation: 4.9%11:00Bristol City#8Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Relegation: 4.9%
11:00Bristol City#8Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 14.1%Playoff: 23.6%Relegation: 4.9%97%
0%
Bolton#21Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Relegation: 25.3%08:30Cardiff#20Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Relegation: 24.1%
08:30Cardiff#20Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.3%Playoff: 8.2%Relegation: 24.1%30%
42%
Blackburn#18Winner: 1.3%Promotion: 3.1%Playoff: 9.7%Relegation: 20.2%11:00Millwall#9Winner: 5.8%Promotion: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Relegation: 6.3%
11:00Millwall#9Winner: 5.8%Promotion: 11.7%Playoff: 21.5%Relegation: 6.3%36%
35%
Middlesbrough#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 14.3%Playoff: 24.1%Relegation: 4.7%11:00Norwich City#10Winner: 4.0%Promotion: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Relegation: 8.2%
11:00Norwich City#10Winner: 4.0%Promotion: 8.4%Playoff: 18.6%Relegation: 8.2%33%
40%
Preston#24Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Relegation: 29.1%11:00Lincoln#19Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Relegation: 16.1%
11:00Lincoln#19Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 4.3%Playoff: 12.0%Relegation: 16.1%7%
80%
West Brom#1Winner: 10.9%Promotion: 19.8%Playoff: 27.1%Relegation: 2.9%08:30QPR#5Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Relegation: 4.9%
08:30QPR#5Winner: 6.9%Promotion: 13.4%Playoff: 23.2%Relegation: 4.9%45%
28%
Derby County#22Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 2.2%Playoff: 7.8%Relegation: 25.5%08:30Birmingham#15Winner: 2.4%Promotion: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Relegation: 13.2%
08:30Birmingham#15Winner: 2.4%Promotion: 5.2%Playoff: 14.1%Relegation: 13.2%6%
80%
Charlton#6Winner: 6.1%Promotion: 12.0%Playoff: 22.5%Relegation: 5.5%11:00Portsmouth#17Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Relegation: 12.8%
11:00Portsmouth#17Winner: 2.6%Promotion: 5.8%Playoff: 14.5%Relegation: 12.8%52%
21%
Swansea City#4Winner: 7.4%Promotion: 14.2%Playoff: 23.5%Relegation: 4.8%11:00Burnley#23Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Relegation: 28.7%
11:00Burnley#23Winner: 0.7%Promotion: 1.7%Playoff: 6.5%Relegation: 28.7%32%
39%
After Round 6: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Southampton's Promo probability dropped from 38.8% to 14.3% (-24.5%).
- ↓Portsmouth's Releg probability dropped from 28.4% to 12.8% (-15.6%).
- ↓Preston's Releg probability dropped from 44.4% to 29.1% (-15.3%).
- ↑Sheffield Utd's Playoff probability climbed from 6.8% to 17.9% (+11.1%).
- ↓Millwall's Playoff probability dropped from 31.6% to 21.5% (-10.1%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Championship 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Playoff:
Championship 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Championship 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, West Brom currently have the highest title probability at 11%. With 40 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Championship 26/27?
- Preston currently faces the highest relegation risk at 29%, followed by Burnley at 29%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Championship 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Championship 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions