Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 22 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Criciúma#1Win: 45.6%Promo: 85.5% | 45.6% |
| 2 |  Juventude#2Win: 17.5%Promo: 61.6% | 17.5% |
| 3 |  Vila Nova#3Win: 9.8%Promo: 46.7%Releg: 0.2% | 9.8% |
| 4 |  Fortaleza#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 36.9%Releg: 0.3% | 6.4% |
| 5 |  Operário-PR#5Win: 4.7%Promo: 30.1%Releg: 0.5% | 4.7% |
| 6 |  Sport#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 27.3%Releg: 0.8% | 3.9% |
| 7 |  Novorizontino#7Win: 3.3%Promo: 24.1%Releg: 1.1% | 3.3% |
| 8 |  Athletic Club#8Win: 2.5%Promo: 21.5%Releg: 1.4% | 2.5% |
| 9 |  CRB#9Win: 2.1%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 10 |  Goiás#10Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.7%Releg: 2.8% | 1.4% |
| 11 |  Atlético-GO#11Win: 1.2%Promo: 12.4%Releg: 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 12 |  São Bernardo#12Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.5%Releg: 6.2% | 0.6% |
| 13 |  Botafogo-SP#13Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.4%Releg: 6.4% | 0.6% |
| 14 |  Cuiabá#14Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.1%Releg: 10.9% | 0.3% |
| 15 |  Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.2%Releg: 17.9% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciúma#1Win: 45.6%Promo: 85.5% | 85.5% |
| 2 | Juventude#2Win: 17.5%Promo: 61.6% | 61.6% |
| 3 | Vila Nova#3Win: 9.8%Promo: 46.7%Releg: 0.2% | 46.7% |
| 4 | Fortaleza#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 36.9%Releg: 0.3% | 36.9% |
| 5 | Operário-PR#5Win: 4.7%Promo: 30.1%Releg: 0.5% | 30.1% |
| 6 | Sport#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 27.3%Releg: 0.8% | 27.3% |
| 7 | Novorizontino#7Win: 3.3%Promo: 24.1%Releg: 1.1% | 24.1% |
| 8 | Athletic Club#8Win: 2.5%Promo: 21.5%Releg: 1.4% | 21.5% |
| 9 | CRB#9Win: 2.1%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.7% | 17.8% |
| 10 | Goiás#10Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.7%Releg: 2.8% | 13.7% |
| 11 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 1.2%Promo: 12.4%Releg: 3.1% | 12.4% |
| 12 | São Bernardo#12Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.5%Releg: 6.2% | 7.5% |
| 13 | Botafogo-SP#13Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.4%Releg: 6.4% | 7.4% |
| 14 | Cuiabá#14Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.1%Releg: 10.9% | 4.1% |
| 15 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.2%Releg: 17.9% | 2.2% |
| 16 |  Ceará#16Promo: 0.8%Releg: 31.7% | 0.8% |
| 17 |  Avaí#17Promo: 0.3%Releg: 47.3% | 0.3% |
| 18 |  Londrina#18Promo: 0.1%Releg: 70.0% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.1% | 99.1% |
| 2 |  América-MG#19Releg: 98.5% | 98.5% |
| 3 | Londrina#18Promo: 0.1%Releg: 70.0% | 70.0% |
| 4 | Avaí#17Promo: 0.3%Releg: 47.3% | 47.3% |
| 5 | Ceará#16Promo: 0.8%Releg: 31.7% | 31.7% |
| 6 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.2%Releg: 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 7 | Cuiabá#14Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.1%Releg: 10.9% | 10.9% |
| 8 | Botafogo-SP#13Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.4%Releg: 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 9 | São Bernardo#12Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.5%Releg: 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 10 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 1.2%Promo: 12.4%Releg: 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 11 | Goiás#10Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.7%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 12 | CRB#9Win: 2.1%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 13 | Athletic Club#8Win: 2.5%Promo: 21.5%Releg: 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 14 | Novorizontino#7Win: 3.3%Promo: 24.1%Releg: 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 15 | Sport#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 27.3%Releg: 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 16 | Operário-PR#5Win: 4.7%Promo: 30.1%Releg: 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 17 | Fortaleza#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 36.9%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 18 | Vila Nova#3Win: 9.8%Promo: 46.7%Releg: 0.2% | 0.2% |
Round 22 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Criciúma#1Win: 45.6%Promo: 85.5% | 22 | 43 | 46% | 86% | — |
2 | Juventude#2Win: 17.5%Promo: 61.6% | 22 | 39 | 18% | 62% | — |
3↑2 | Vila Nova#3Win: 9.8%Promo: 46.7%Releg: 0.2% | 22 | 37 | 10% | 47% | 0% |
4↓1 | Fortaleza#4Win: 6.4%Promo: 36.9%Releg: 0.3% | 22 | 36 | 6% | 37% | 0% |
5↓1 | Operário-PR#5Win: 4.7%Promo: 30.1%Releg: 0.5% | 22 | 35 | 5% | 30% | 1% |
6↑4 | Sport#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 27.3%Releg: 0.8% | 22 | 35 | 4% | 27% | 1% |
7↓1 | Novorizontino#7Win: 3.3%Promo: 24.1%Releg: 1.1% | 22 | 34 | 3% | 24% | 1% |
8↑3 | Athletic Club#8Win: 2.5%Promo: 21.5%Releg: 1.4% | 22 | 34 | 3% | 22% | 1% |
9↓2 | CRB#9Win: 2.1%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.7% | 22 | 33 | 2% | 18% | 2% |
10↓2 | Goiás#10Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.7%Releg: 2.8% | 22 | 32 | 1% | 14% | 3% |
11↓2 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 1.2%Promo: 12.4%Releg: 3.1% | 22 | 32 | 1% | 12% | 3% |
12 | São Bernardo#12Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.5%Releg: 6.2% | 22 | 30 | 1% | 8% | 6% |
13 | Botafogo-SP#13Win: 0.6%Promo: 7.4%Releg: 6.4% | 22 | 30 | 1% | 7% | 6% |
14↑1 | Cuiabá#14Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.1%Releg: 10.9% | 22 | 29 | 0% | 4% | 11% |
15↓1 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.2%Releg: 17.9% | 22 | 27 | 0% | 2% | 18% |
16 | Ceará#16Promo: 0.8%Releg: 31.7% | 22 | 25 | — | 1% | 32% |
17↑1 | Avaí#17Promo: 0.3%Releg: 47.3% | 22 | 23 | — | 0% | 47% |
18↓1 | Londrina#18Promo: 0.1%Releg: 70.0% | 22 | 20 | — | 0% | 70% |
19 | América-MG#19Releg: 98.5% | 22 | 11 | — | — | 99% |
20 | Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.1% | 22 | 10 | — | — | 99% |
WinPromoReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Londrina#18Promotion: 0.1%Relegation: 70.0%10:30 PMAtlético-GO#11Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 3.1%
10:30 PMAtlético-GO#11Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 12.4%Relegation: 3.1%38%
38%
Náutico#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.2%Relegation: 17.9%12:30 AMCeará#16Promotion: 0.8%Relegation: 31.7%
12:30 AMCeará#16Promotion: 0.8%Relegation: 31.7%45%
26%
Goiás#10Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 13.7%Relegation: 2.8%12:35 AMJuventude#2Winner: 17.5%Promotion: 61.6%
12:35 AMJuventude#2Winner: 17.5%Promotion: 61.6%30%
40%
Fortaleza#4Winner: 6.4%Promotion: 36.9%Relegation: 0.3%10:30 PMSão Bernardo#12Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 6.2%
10:30 PMSão Bernardo#12Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 7.5%Relegation: 6.2%59%
19%
26%
48%
65%
15%
Cuiabá#14Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 4.1%Relegation: 10.9%11:30 PMOperário-PR#5Winner: 4.7%Promotion: 30.1%Relegation: 0.5%
11:30 PMOperário-PR#5Winner: 4.7%Promotion: 30.1%Relegation: 0.5%26%
44%
Botafogo-SP#13Winner: 0.6%Promotion: 7.4%Relegation: 6.4%12:30 AMCriciúma#1Winner: 45.6%Promotion: 85.5%
12:30 AMCriciúma#1Winner: 45.6%Promotion: 85.5%54%
23%
Athletic Club#8Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 21.5%Relegation: 1.4%10:30 PMCRB#9Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 17.8%Relegation: 1.7%
10:30 PMCRB#9Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 17.8%Relegation: 1.7%46%
25%
57%
19%
After Round 22: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Avaí's Releg probability dropped from 75.7% to 47.3% (-28.4%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Promo probability dropped from 72.9% to 46.7% (-26.2%).
- ↑Operário-PR's Promo probability climbed from 8.4% to 30.1% (+21.7%).
- ↑Ceará's Releg probability climbed from 15.5% to 31.7% (+16.2%).
- ↓Sport's Promo probability dropped from 42.9% to 27.3% (-15.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Criciúma currently have the highest title probability at 46%. With 16 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Ponte Preta currently faces the highest relegation risk at 99%, followed by América-MG at 99%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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