Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 31 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova#1Win: 43.2%Promo: 90.9% | 43.2% |
| 2 |  Juventude#2Win: 27.7%Promo: 85.5% | 27.7% |
| 3 |  Novorizontino#3Win: 12.4%Promo: 64.7% | 12.4% |
| 4 |  Criciúma#4Win: 6.7%Promo: 51.1% | 6.7% |
| 5 |  Fortaleza#5Win: 6.1%Promo: 46.7% | 6.1% |
| 6 |  Atlético-GO#6Win: 3.3%Promo: 37.9% | 3.3% |
| 7 |  CRB#7Win: 0.3%Promo: 9.1% | 0.3% |
| 8 |  Operário-PR#8Win: 0.2%Promo: 6.7% | 0.2% |
| 9 |  Sport#9Win: 0.1%Promo: 4.2% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova#1Win: 43.2%Promo: 90.9% | 90.9% |
| 2 | Juventude#2Win: 27.7%Promo: 85.5% | 85.5% |
| 3 | Novorizontino#3Win: 12.4%Promo: 64.7% | 64.7% |
| 4 | Criciúma#4Win: 6.7%Promo: 51.1% | 51.1% |
| 5 | Fortaleza#5Win: 6.1%Promo: 46.7% | 46.7% |
| 6 | Atlético-GO#6Win: 3.3%Promo: 37.9% | 37.9% |
| 7 | CRB#7Win: 0.3%Promo: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 8 | Operário-PR#8Win: 0.2%Promo: 6.7% | 6.7% |
| 9 | Sport#9Win: 0.1%Promo: 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 10 |  Cuiabá#10Promo: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 11 |  São Bernardo#11Promo: 1.3% | 1.3% |
| 12 |  Goiás#12Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 13 |  Náutico#13Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 14 |  Athletic Club#14Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  América-MG#19Releg: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Ponte Preta#20Releg: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Londrina#18Releg: 93.2% | 93.2% |
| 4 |  Avaí#17Releg: 82.9% | 82.9% |
| 5 |  Botafogo-SP#16Releg: 20.7% | 20.7% |
| 6 |  Ceará#15Releg: 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 7 | Athletic Club#14Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8 | Náutico#13Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 9 | Goiás#12Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 31 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Vila Nova#1Win: 43.2%Promo: 90.9% | 31 | 57 | 43% | 91% | — |
2 | Juventude#2Win: 27.7%Promo: 85.5% | 31 | 56 | 28% | 86% | — |
3↑1 | Novorizontino#3Win: 12.4%Promo: 64.7% | 31 | 54 | 12% | 65% | — |
4↑1 | Criciúma#4Win: 6.7%Promo: 51.1% | 31 | 53 | 7% | 51% | — |
5↓2 | Fortaleza#5Win: 6.1%Promo: 46.7% | 31 | 53 | 6% | 47% | — |
6 | Atlético-GO#6Win: 3.3%Promo: 37.9% | 31 | 52 | 3% | 38% | — |
7 | CRB#7Win: 0.3%Promo: 9.1% | 31 | 48 | 0% | 9% | — |
8 | Operário-PR#8Win: 0.2%Promo: 6.7% | 31 | 48 | 0% | 7% | — |
9 | Sport#9Win: 0.1%Promo: 4.2% | 31 | 47 | 0% | 4% | — |
10 | Cuiabá#10Promo: 1.7% | 31 | 46 | — | 2% | — |
11↑1 | São Bernardo#11Promo: 1.3% | 31 | 45 | — | 1% | — |
12↓1 | Goiás#12Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.1% | 31 | 42 | — | 0% | 0% |
13↑1 | Náutico#13Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.2% | 31 | 42 | — | 0% | 0% |
14↓1 | Athletic Club#14Promo: 0.1%Releg: 0.3% | 31 | 42 | — | 0% | 0% |
15 | Ceará#15Releg: 2.5% | 31 | 39 | — | — | 3% |
16 | Botafogo-SP#16Releg: 20.7% | 31 | 35 | — | — | 21% |
17 | Avaí#17Releg: 82.9% | 31 | 30 | — | — | 83% |
18 | Londrina#18Releg: 93.2% | 31 | 28 | — | — | 93% |
19 | América-MG#19Releg: 100.0% | 31 | 17 | — | — | 100% |
20 | Ponte Preta#20Releg: 100.0% | 31 | 13 | — | — | 100% |
WinPromoReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
42%
29%
84%
3%
8%
73%
45%
27%
51%
23%
33%
37%
22%
51%
After Round 31: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Atlético-GO's Promo probability climbed from 16.6% to 37.9% (+21.3%).
- ↑Criciúma's Promo probability climbed from 31.6% to 51.1% (+19.5%).
- ↓Fortaleza's Promo probability dropped from 63.5% to 46.7% (-16.8%).
- ↓Sport's Promo probability dropped from 11.5% to 4.2% (-7.3%).
- ↓Juventude's Promo probability dropped from 92.5% to 85.5% (-7%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Vila Nova currently have the highest title probability at 43%. With 7 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Ponte Preta at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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