Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 27 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventude#1Win: 33.3%Promo: 83.4% | 33.3% |
| 2 |  Novorizontino#2Win: 27.4%Promo: 77.4% | 27.4% |
| 3 |  Fortaleza#3Win: 12.2%Promo: 58.5% | 12.2% |
| 4 |  Criciúma#4Win: 11.9%Promo: 57.4% | 11.9% |
| 5 |  Vila Nova#5Win: 8.6%Promo: 45.4% | 8.6% |
| 6 |  Operário-PR#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 22.3% | 2.4% |
| 7 |  Atlético-GO#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 20.5% | 2.0% |
| 8 |  CRB#8Win: 1.3%Promo: 16.8% | 1.3% |
| 9 |  Sport#10Win: 0.3%Promo: 5.9%Releg: 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 10 |  Cuiabá#9Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.2%Releg: 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 11 |  Náutico#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.1%Releg: 1.8% | 0.1% |
| 12 |  Goiás#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 2.0% | 0.1% |
| 13 |  São Bernardo#14Win: 0.1%Promo: 1.8%Releg: 3.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude#1Win: 33.3%Promo: 83.4% | 83.4% |
| 2 | Novorizontino#2Win: 27.4%Promo: 77.4% | 77.4% |
| 3 | Fortaleza#3Win: 12.2%Promo: 58.5% | 58.5% |
| 4 | Criciúma#4Win: 11.9%Promo: 57.4% | 57.4% |
| 5 | Vila Nova#5Win: 8.6%Promo: 45.4% | 45.4% |
| 6 | Operário-PR#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 22.3% | 22.3% |
| 7 | Atlético-GO#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 20.5% | 20.5% |
| 8 | CRB#8Win: 1.3%Promo: 16.8% | 16.8% |
| 9 | Sport#10Win: 0.3%Promo: 5.9%Releg: 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 10 | Cuiabá#9Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.2%Releg: 0.7% | 4.2% |
| 11 | Goiás#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 2.0% | 2.8% |
| 12 | Náutico#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.1%Releg: 1.8% | 2.1% |
| 13 | São Bernardo#14Win: 0.1%Promo: 1.8%Releg: 3.3% | 1.8% |
| 14 |  Athletic Club#12Promo: 1.5%Releg: 2.8% | 1.5% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 2 |  América-MG#19Releg: 99.4% | 99.4% |
| 3 |  Londrina#18Releg: 90.1% | 90.1% |
| 4 |  Avaí#17Releg: 44.8% | 44.8% |
| 5 |  Ceará#16Releg: 27.8% | 27.8% |
| 6 |  Botafogo-SP#15Releg: 26.5% | 26.5% |
| 7 | São Bernardo#14Win: 0.1%Promo: 1.8%Releg: 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 8 | Athletic Club#12Promo: 1.5%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 9 | Goiás#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 10 | Náutico#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.1%Releg: 1.8% | 1.8% |
| 11 | Cuiabá#9Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.2%Releg: 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 12 | Sport#10Win: 0.3%Promo: 5.9%Releg: 0.7% | 0.7% |
Round 27 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Juventude#1Win: 33.3%Promo: 83.4% | 27 | 50 | 33% | 83% | — |
2↑1 | Novorizontino#2Win: 27.4%Promo: 77.4% | 27 | 49 | 27% | 77% | — |
3↑2 | Fortaleza#3Win: 12.2%Promo: 58.5% | 27 | 47 | 12% | 59% | — |
4↓2 | Criciúma#4Win: 11.9%Promo: 57.4% | 27 | 47 | 12% | 57% | — |
5↓1 | Vila Nova#5Win: 8.6%Promo: 45.4% | 26 | 44 | 9% | 45% | — |
6↑1 | Operário-PR#6Win: 2.4%Promo: 22.3% | 27 | 43 | 2% | 22% | — |
7↑1 | Atlético-GO#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 20.5% | 27 | 43 | 2% | 21% | — |
8↓2 | CRB#8Win: 1.3%Promo: 16.8% | 27 | 42 | 1% | 17% | — |
9↑4 | Cuiabá#9Win: 0.2%Promo: 4.2%Releg: 0.7% | 27 | 39 | 0% | 4% | 1% |
10↓1 | Sport#10Win: 0.3%Promo: 5.9%Releg: 0.7% | 26 | 38 | 0% | 6% | 1% |
11↓1 | Náutico#11Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.1%Releg: 1.8% | 27 | 37 | 0% | 2% | 2% |
12↓1 | Athletic Club#12Promo: 1.5%Releg: 2.8% | 27 | 37 | — | 2% | 3% |
13↓1 | Goiás#13Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 2.0% | 26 | 36 | 0% | 3% | 2% |
14 | São Bernardo#14Win: 0.1%Promo: 1.8%Releg: 3.3% | 26 | 35 | 0% | 2% | 3% |
15 | Botafogo-SP#15Releg: 26.5% | 27 | 31 | — | — | 27% |
16 | Ceará#16Releg: 27.8% | 27 | 31 | — | — | 28% |
17 | Avaí#17Releg: 44.8% | 27 | 29 | — | — | 45% |
18 | Londrina#18Releg: 90.1% | 26 | 22 | — | — | 90% |
19 | América-MG#19Releg: 99.4% | 27 | 17 | — | — | 99% |
20 | Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.9% | 26 | 10 | — | — | 100% |
WinPromoReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
47%
25%
17%
55%
36%
34%
28%
43%
73%
5%
Novorizontino#2Winner: 27.4%Promotion: 77.4%9:30 PMCuiabá#9Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.2%Relegation: 0.7%
9:30 PMCuiabá#9Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 4.2%Relegation: 0.7%43%
26%
32%
38%
35%
35%
After Round 27: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Ceará's Releg probability dropped from 49.6% to 27.8% (-21.8%).
- ↓CRB's Promo probability dropped from 35.7% to 16.8% (-18.9%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Promo probability dropped from 64.1% to 45.4% (-18.7%).
- ↑Atlético-GO's Promo probability climbed from 4.1% to 20.5% (+16.4%).
- ↑Novorizontino's Promo probability climbed from 61.2% to 77.4% (+16.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Juventude currently have the highest title probability at 33%. With 11 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Ponte Preta currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by América-MG at 99%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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