Brasileirão 2026 — Round 23 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4% | 51.3% |
| 2 |  Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4% | 36.4% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5% | 7.8% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 1.1% |
| 6 |  Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 0.4% |
| 7 |  Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 8 |  Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 0.3% |
| 9 |  Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 0.1% |
| 10 |  Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 0.1% |
| 11 |  Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4% | 97.4% |
| 2 | Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4% | 93.7% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5% | 69.8% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 41.8% |
| 5 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 27.1% |
| 6 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 14.4% |
| 7 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 14.3% |
| 8 | Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 14.1% |
| 9 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 7.5% |
| 10 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 6.9% |
| 11 | Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 5.4% |
| 12 |  Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0% | 2.8% |
| 13 |  São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2% | 2.3% |
| 14 |  Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4% | 0.8% |
| 15 |  Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6% | 0.8% |
| 16 |  Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9% | 0.4% |
| 17 |  Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2% | 0.2% |
| 18 |  Vasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8% | 0.2% |
| 19 |  Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 26.9% |
| 2 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 26.1% |
| 3 | Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 20.5% |
| 4 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 20.1% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 19.8% |
| 6 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5% | 18.3% |
| 7 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 14.5% |
| 8 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 13.1% |
| 9 | Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 11.3% |
| 10 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0% | 7.1% |
| 11 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2% | 6.0% |
| 12 | Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4% | 4.9% |
| 13 | Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6% | 2.9% |
| 14 | Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4% | 2.8% |
| 15 | Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4% | 2.2% |
| 16 | Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9% | 1.4% |
| 17 | Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2% | 0.9% |
| 18 | Vasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8% | 0.8% |
| 19 | Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3% | 0.6% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 54.1% |
| 2 | Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 52.7% |
| 3 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 52.3% |
| 4 | Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 51.3% |
| 5 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 50.5% |
| 6 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 50.5% |
| 7 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0% | 44.8% |
| 8 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2% | 41.2% |
| 9 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 41.1% |
| 10 | Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6% | 29.2% |
| 11 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 28.9% |
| 12 | Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4% | 28.8% |
| 13 | Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9% | 19.6% |
| 14 | Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2% | 15.9% |
| 15 | Vasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8% | 13.7% |
| 16 | Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3% | 11.9% |
| 17 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5% | 11.5% |
| 18 | Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 19 | Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 20 |  Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4% | 98.4% |
| 2 | Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3% | 55.3% |
| 3 | Vasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8% | 52.8% |
| 4 | Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2% | 47.2% |
| 5 | Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9% | 41.9% |
| 6 | Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4% | 28.4% |
| 7 | Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6% | 27.6% |
| 8 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2% | 15.2% |
| 9 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0% | 12.0% |
| 10 | Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 5.8% |
| 11 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 5.3% |
| 12 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 13 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 14 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 15 | Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 16 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 17 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 23 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4% | 23 | 48 | 51% | 97% | 2% | 0% | — |
2 | Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4% | 22 | 45 | 36% | 94% | 5% | 1% | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5% | 23 | 41 | 8% | 70% | 18% | 12% | — |
4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1% | 23 | 38 | 2% | 42% | 27% | 29% | 0% |
5 | Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4% | 23 | 36 | 1% | 27% | 26% | 41% | 0% |
6 | Bahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7% | 23 | 34 | 0% | 14% | 21% | 51% | 2% |
7↑1 | Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 22 | 32 | 0% | 14% | 20% | 51% | 2% |
8↑3 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0% | 22 | 32 | 0% | 14% | 20% | 51% | 2% |
9↓2 | Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0% | 23 | 32 | 0% | 8% | 15% | 54% | 4% |
10 | Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8% | 23 | 31 | 0% | 5% | 11% | 53% | 6% |
11↓2 | Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3% | 22 | 30 | 0% | 7% | 13% | 52% | 5% |
12 | Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0% | 23 | 29 | — | 3% | 7% | 45% | 12% |
13 | São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2% | 22 | 27 | — | 2% | 6% | 41% | 15% |
14 | Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4% | 22 | 25 | — | 1% | 3% | 29% | 28% |
15↑2 | Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6% | 22 | 25 | — | 1% | 3% | 29% | 28% |
16 | Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2% | 23 | 24 | — | 0% | 1% | 16% | 47% |
17↓2 | Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9% | 22 | 23 | — | 0% | 1% | 20% | 42% |
18↑1 | Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3% | 23 | 23 | — | 0% | 1% | 12% | 55% |
19↓1 | Vasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8% | 22 | 22 | — | 0% | 1% | 14% | 53% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4% | 22 | 11 | — | — | — | 0% | 98% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Fluminense#4Winner: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Libertadores Qualification: 26.9%Copa Sulamericana: 28.9%Relegation: 0.1%7:00 PMRemo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Libertadores Qualification: 0.6%Copa Sulamericana: 11.9%Relegation: 55.3%
7:00 PMRemo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Libertadores Qualification: 0.6%Copa Sulamericana: 11.9%Relegation: 55.3%58%
19%
Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 15.9%Relegation: 47.2%9:30 PMAtlético-MG#8Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Libertadores Qualification: 19.8%Copa Sulamericana: 50.5%Relegation: 2.0%
9:30 PMAtlético-MG#8Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Libertadores Qualification: 19.8%Copa Sulamericana: 50.5%Relegation: 2.0%35%
34%
Palmeiras#1Winner: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Libertadores Qualification: 2.2%Copa Sulamericana: 0.4%7:00 PMVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Libertadores Qualification: 0.8%Copa Sulamericana: 13.7%Relegation: 52.8%
7:00 PMVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Libertadores Qualification: 0.8%Copa Sulamericana: 13.7%Relegation: 52.8%59%
17%
Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Libertadores Qualification: 7.1%Copa Sulamericana: 44.8%Relegation: 12.0%7:00 PMBahia#6Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 51.3%Relegation: 1.7%
7:00 PMBahia#6Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 51.3%Relegation: 1.7%47%
22%
Bragantino#7Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 50.5%Relegation: 2.0%7:00 PMGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.8%Copa Sulamericana: 28.8%Relegation: 28.4%
7:00 PMGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.8%Copa Sulamericana: 28.8%Relegation: 28.4%53%
22%
Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.9%Copa Sulamericana: 29.2%Relegation: 27.6%9:30 PMMirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 1.4%Copa Sulamericana: 19.6%Relegation: 41.9%
9:30 PMMirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 1.4%Copa Sulamericana: 19.6%Relegation: 41.9%53%
21%
Chapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.1%Relegation: 98.4%9:30 PMSão Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 6.0%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 15.2%
9:30 PMSão Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 6.0%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 15.2%29%
50%
Coritiba#10Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.3%Copa Sulamericana: 52.7%Relegation: 5.8%10:30 PMCorinthians#9Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Libertadores Qualification: 14.5%Copa Sulamericana: 54.1%Relegation: 4.0%
10:30 PMCorinthians#9Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Libertadores Qualification: 14.5%Copa Sulamericana: 54.1%Relegation: 4.0%40%
35%
Botafogo#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Libertadores Qualification: 13.1%Copa Sulamericana: 52.3%Relegation: 5.3%11:00 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.3%Copa Sulamericana: 11.5%
11:00 PMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.3%Copa Sulamericana: 11.5%49%
26%
After Round 23: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Grêmio's Releg probability dropped from 58.7% to 28.4% (-30.3%).
- ↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 95.3% to 69.8% (-25.5%).
- ↑Cruzeiro's Libertadores probability climbed from 4.5% to 27.1% (+22.6%).
- ↓São Paulo's Pre-Libertadores probability dropped from 24.4% to 6% (-18.4%).
- ↑Internacional's Releg probability climbed from 33.6% to 47.2% (+13.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 51%. With 15 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 98%, followed by Remo at 55%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions