Brasileirão 2026 — Round 26 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo#1Win: 55.3%Libertadores: 98.9%Pre-Libertadores: 1.0% | 55.3% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras#2Win: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.0%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 38.3% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.7%Sulamericana: 12.4% | 2.8% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.3%Sulamericana: 15.3% | 2.0% |
| 5 |  Bahia#5Win: 0.9%Libertadores: 35.4%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 29.0% | 0.9% |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 34.1% | 0.6% |
| 7 |  Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo#1Win: 55.3%Libertadores: 98.9%Pre-Libertadores: 1.0% | 98.9% |
| 2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.0%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 97.8% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.7%Sulamericana: 12.4% | 59.8% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.3%Sulamericana: 15.3% | 55.2% |
| 5 | Bahia#5Win: 0.9%Libertadores: 35.4%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 29.0% | 35.4% |
| 6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 34.1% | 30.1% |
| 7 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 7.5% |
| 8 |  Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Pre-Libertadores: 15.0%Sulamericana: 66.7%Releg: 0.6% | 5.3% |
| 9 |  Bragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 65.1%Releg: 1.2% | 5.0% |
| 10 |  São Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Pre-Libertadores: 7.8%Sulamericana: 60.9%Releg: 3.6% | 2.2% |
| 11 |  Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 53.3%Releg: 6.0% | 1.1% |
| 12 |  Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Pre-Libertadores: 3.3%Sulamericana: 47.1%Releg: 9.5% | 0.6% |
| 13 |  Vitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 46.8%Releg: 9.2% | 0.5% |
| 14 |  Corinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.4%Sulamericana: 45.8%Releg: 10.2% | 0.4% |
| 15 |  Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 25.2%Releg: 26.2% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia#5Win: 0.9%Libertadores: 35.4%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 29.0% | 34.9% |
| 2 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 34.1% | 34.9% |
| 3 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.3%Sulamericana: 15.3% | 29.3% |
| 4 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.7%Sulamericana: 12.4% | 27.7% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 17.8% |
| 6 | Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Pre-Libertadores: 15.0%Sulamericana: 66.7%Releg: 0.6% | 15.0% |
| 7 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 65.1%Releg: 1.2% | 14.5% |
| 8 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Pre-Libertadores: 7.8%Sulamericana: 60.9%Releg: 3.6% | 7.8% |
| 9 | Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 53.3%Releg: 6.0% | 4.9% |
| 10 | Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Pre-Libertadores: 3.3%Sulamericana: 47.1%Releg: 9.5% | 3.3% |
| 11 | Vitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 46.8%Releg: 9.2% | 2.9% |
| 12 | Corinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.4%Sulamericana: 45.8%Releg: 10.2% | 2.4% |
| 13 | Palmeiras#2Win: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.0%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 2.0% |
| 14 | Flamengo#1Win: 55.3%Libertadores: 98.9%Pre-Libertadores: 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 15 | Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 25.2%Releg: 26.2% | 0.8% |
| 16 |  Mirassol#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 17.0%Releg: 36.2% | 0.3% |
| 17 |  Vasco#17Pre-Libertadores: 0.1%Sulamericana: 10.0%Releg: 53.5% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Pre-Libertadores: 15.0%Sulamericana: 66.7%Releg: 0.6% | 66.7% |
| 2 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 65.1%Releg: 1.2% | 65.1% |
| 3 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 63.4% |
| 4 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Pre-Libertadores: 7.8%Sulamericana: 60.9%Releg: 3.6% | 60.9% |
| 5 | Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 53.3%Releg: 6.0% | 53.3% |
| 6 | Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Pre-Libertadores: 3.3%Sulamericana: 47.1%Releg: 9.5% | 47.1% |
| 7 | Vitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 46.8%Releg: 9.2% | 46.8% |
| 8 | Corinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.4%Sulamericana: 45.8%Releg: 10.2% | 45.8% |
| 9 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 34.1% | 34.1% |
| 10 | Bahia#5Win: 0.9%Libertadores: 35.4%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 29.0% | 29.0% |
| 11 | Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 25.2%Releg: 26.2% | 25.2% |
| 12 | Mirassol#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 17.0%Releg: 36.2% | 17.0% |
| 13 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.3%Sulamericana: 15.3% | 15.3% |
| 14 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.7%Sulamericana: 12.4% | 12.4% |
| 15 | Vasco#17Pre-Libertadores: 0.1%Sulamericana: 10.0%Releg: 53.5% | 10.0% |
| 16 |  Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 66.5% | 5.1% |
| 17 |  Remo#19Sulamericana: 2.1%Releg: 80.5% | 2.1% |
| 18 |  Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.2%Releg: 96.4% | 0.2% |
| 19 | Palmeiras#2Win: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.0%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.2%Releg: 96.4% | 96.4% |
| 2 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 2.1%Releg: 80.5% | 80.5% |
| 3 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 66.5% | 66.5% |
| 4 | Vasco#17Pre-Libertadores: 0.1%Sulamericana: 10.0%Releg: 53.5% | 53.5% |
| 5 | Mirassol#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 17.0%Releg: 36.2% | 36.2% |
| 6 | Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 25.2%Releg: 26.2% | 26.2% |
| 7 | Corinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.4%Sulamericana: 45.8%Releg: 10.2% | 10.2% |
| 8 | Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Pre-Libertadores: 3.3%Sulamericana: 47.1%Releg: 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 9 | Vitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 46.8%Releg: 9.2% | 9.2% |
| 10 | Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 53.3%Releg: 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 11 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Pre-Libertadores: 7.8%Sulamericana: 60.9%Releg: 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 12 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 65.1%Releg: 1.2% | 1.2% |
| 13 | Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Pre-Libertadores: 15.0%Sulamericana: 66.7%Releg: 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 14 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 0.6% |
Round 26 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Flamengo#1Win: 55.3%Libertadores: 98.9%Pre-Libertadores: 1.0% | 26 | 54 | 55% | 99% | 1% | — | — |
2↓1 | Palmeiras#2Win: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.0%Sulamericana: 0.1% | 26 | 53 | 38% | 98% | 2% | 0% | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Pre-Libertadores: 27.7%Sulamericana: 12.4% | 26 | 45 | 3% | 60% | 28% | 12% | — |
4 | Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Pre-Libertadores: 29.3%Sulamericana: 15.3% | 26 | 45 | 2% | 55% | 29% | 15% | — |
5 | Bahia#5Win: 0.9%Libertadores: 35.4%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 29.0% | 26 | 43 | 1% | 35% | 35% | 29% | — |
6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Pre-Libertadores: 34.9%Sulamericana: 34.1% | 26 | 42 | 1% | 30% | 35% | 34% | — |
7 | Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Pre-Libertadores: 15.0%Sulamericana: 66.7%Releg: 0.6% | 26 | 37 | — | 5% | 15% | 67% | 1% |
8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 17.8%Sulamericana: 63.4%Releg: 0.6% | 25 | 36 | 0% | 8% | 18% | 63% | 1% |
9 | Bragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 65.1%Releg: 1.2% | 25 | 35 | — | 5% | 15% | 65% | 1% |
10↑1 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Pre-Libertadores: 7.8%Sulamericana: 60.9%Releg: 3.6% | 25 | 33 | — | 2% | 8% | 61% | 4% |
11↑2 | Vitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 46.8%Releg: 9.2% | 26 | 32 | — | 1% | 3% | 47% | 9% |
12↑2 | Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 53.3%Releg: 6.0% | 25 | 32 | — | 1% | 5% | 53% | 6% |
13↓3 | Corinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.4%Sulamericana: 45.8%Releg: 10.2% | 26 | 32 | — | 0% | 2% | 46% | 10% |
14↓2 | Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Pre-Libertadores: 3.3%Sulamericana: 47.1%Releg: 9.5% | 25 | 31 | — | 1% | 3% | 47% | 10% |
15↑1 | Mirassol#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 17.0%Releg: 36.2% | 26 | 28 | — | — | 0% | 17% | 36% |
16↓1 | Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 25.2%Releg: 26.2% | 25 | 28 | — | 0% | 1% | 25% | 26% |
17 | Vasco#17Pre-Libertadores: 0.1%Sulamericana: 10.0%Releg: 53.5% | 25 | 25 | — | — | 0% | 10% | 54% |
18 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.1%Releg: 66.5% | 26 | 25 | — | — | — | 5% | 67% |
19 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 2.1%Releg: 80.5% | 26 | 23 | — | — | — | 2% | 81% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.2%Releg: 96.4% | 25 | 17 | — | — | — | 0% | 96% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Coritiba#7Libertadores: 5.3%Libertadores Qualification: 15.0%Copa Sulamericana: 66.7%Relegation: 0.6%12:00 AMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Libertadores Qualification: 27.7%Copa Sulamericana: 12.4%
12:00 AMAthletico-PR#3Winner: 2.8%Libertadores: 59.8%Libertadores Qualification: 27.7%Copa Sulamericana: 12.4%11%
68%
Grêmio#16Libertadores: 0.1%Libertadores Qualification: 0.8%Copa Sulamericana: 25.2%Relegation: 26.2%7:00 PMVasco#17Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 10.0%Relegation: 53.5%
7:00 PMVasco#17Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 10.0%Relegation: 53.5%54%
20%
Atlético-MG#8Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Libertadores Qualification: 17.8%Copa Sulamericana: 63.4%Relegation: 0.6%7:00 PMFluminense#4Winner: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Libertadores Qualification: 29.3%Copa Sulamericana: 15.3%
7:00 PMFluminense#4Winner: 2.0%Libertadores: 55.2%Libertadores Qualification: 29.3%Copa Sulamericana: 15.3%57%
19%
Chapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.2%Relegation: 96.4%8:00 PMInternacional#18Copa Sulamericana: 5.1%Relegation: 66.5%
8:00 PMInternacional#18Copa Sulamericana: 5.1%Relegation: 66.5%4%
86%
Palmeiras#2Winner: 38.3%Libertadores: 97.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 0.1%9:30 PMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 7.8%Copa Sulamericana: 60.9%Relegation: 3.6%
9:30 PMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 7.8%Copa Sulamericana: 60.9%Relegation: 3.6%73%
9%
Botafogo#14Libertadores: 0.6%Libertadores Qualification: 3.3%Copa Sulamericana: 47.1%Relegation: 9.5%11:30 PMBragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Libertadores Qualification: 14.5%Copa Sulamericana: 65.1%Relegation: 1.2%
11:30 PMBragantino#9Libertadores: 5.0%Libertadores Qualification: 14.5%Copa Sulamericana: 65.1%Relegation: 1.2%55%
18%
Santos#12Libertadores: 1.1%Libertadores Qualification: 4.9%Copa Sulamericana: 53.3%Relegation: 6.0%12:00 AMCruzeiro#6Winner: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Libertadores Qualification: 34.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.1%
12:00 AMCruzeiro#6Winner: 0.6%Libertadores: 30.1%Libertadores Qualification: 34.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.1%40%
33%
Mirassol#15Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 17.0%Relegation: 36.2%7:00 PMVitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Libertadores Qualification: 2.9%Copa Sulamericana: 46.8%Relegation: 9.2%
7:00 PMVitória#11Libertadores: 0.5%Libertadores Qualification: 2.9%Copa Sulamericana: 46.8%Relegation: 9.2%33%
38%
Flamengo#1Winner: 55.3%Libertadores: 98.9%Libertadores Qualification: 1.0%8:30 PMCorinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 2.4%Copa Sulamericana: 45.8%Relegation: 10.2%
8:30 PMCorinthians#13Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 2.4%Copa Sulamericana: 45.8%Relegation: 10.2%88%
3%
After Round 26: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 82.7% to 59.8% (-22.9%).
- ↓Grêmio's Sulamericana probability dropped from 46.4% to 25.2% (-21.2%).
- ↓Flamengo's Win probability dropped from 73.3% to 55.3% (-18%).
- ↓Botafogo's Sulamericana probability dropped from 64.3% to 47.1% (-17.2%).
- ↑Coritiba's Sulamericana probability climbed from 51.4% to 66.7% (+15.3%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Flamengo currently have the highest title probability at 55%. With 12 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 96%, followed by Remo at 81%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions