Brasileirão 2026 — Round 28 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 71.1% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9% | 27.0% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Pre-Libertadores: 24.9%Sulamericana: 7.1% | 1.2% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Pre-Libertadores: 32.7%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 0.5% |
| 5 |  Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 30.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.2%Sulamericana: 29.9% | 0.2% |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Pre-Libertadores: 37.8%Sulamericana: 35.2% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9% | 99.1% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Pre-Libertadores: 24.9%Sulamericana: 7.1% | 68.0% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Pre-Libertadores: 32.7%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 53.8% |
| 5 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 30.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.2%Sulamericana: 29.9% | 30.7% |
| 6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Pre-Libertadores: 37.8%Sulamericana: 35.2% | 26.8% |
| 7 |  Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Pre-Libertadores: 30.6%Sulamericana: 54.5% | 13.7% |
| 8 |  Santos#8Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 18.2%Sulamericana: 71.7% | 5.6% |
| 9 |  Coritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Pre-Libertadores: 6.3%Sulamericana: 73.5%Releg: 1.0% | 1.2% |
| 10 |  São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 64.8%Releg: 3.0% | 0.5% |
| 11 |  Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 65.2%Releg: 3.0% | 0.4% |
| 12 |  Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 53.1%Releg: 5.9% | 0.2% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 30.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.2%Sulamericana: 29.9% | 39.2% |
| 2 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Pre-Libertadores: 37.8%Sulamericana: 35.2% | 37.8% |
| 3 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Pre-Libertadores: 32.7%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 32.7% |
| 4 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Pre-Libertadores: 30.6%Sulamericana: 54.5% | 30.6% |
| 5 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Pre-Libertadores: 24.9%Sulamericana: 7.1% | 24.9% |
| 6 | Santos#8Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 18.2%Sulamericana: 71.7% | 18.2% |
| 7 | Coritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Pre-Libertadores: 6.3%Sulamericana: 73.5%Releg: 1.0% | 6.3% |
| 8 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 64.8%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 9 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 65.2%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 10 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 53.1%Releg: 5.9% | 1.7% |
| 11 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 12 |  Vitória#13Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 35.4%Releg: 14.6% | 0.6% |
| 13 |  Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 29.7%Releg: 20.0% | 0.4% |
| 14 |  Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 24.7%Releg: 23.6% | 0.3% |
| 15 |  Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 27.4%Releg: 21.7% | 0.2% |
| 16 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Pre-Libertadores: 6.3%Sulamericana: 73.5%Releg: 1.0% | 73.5% |
| 2 | Santos#8Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 18.2%Sulamericana: 71.7% | 71.7% |
| 3 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 65.2%Releg: 3.0% | 65.2% |
| 4 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 64.8%Releg: 3.0% | 64.8% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Pre-Libertadores: 30.6%Sulamericana: 54.5% | 54.5% |
| 6 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 53.1%Releg: 5.9% | 53.1% |
| 7 | Vitória#13Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 35.4%Releg: 14.6% | 35.4% |
| 8 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Pre-Libertadores: 37.8%Sulamericana: 35.2% | 35.2% |
| 9 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 30.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.2%Sulamericana: 29.9% | 29.9% |
| 10 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 29.7%Releg: 20.0% | 29.7% |
| 11 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 27.4%Releg: 21.7% | 27.4% |
| 12 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 24.7%Releg: 23.6% | 24.7% |
| 13 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Pre-Libertadores: 32.7%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 14 |  Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.4%Releg: 51.6% | 8.4% |
| 15 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Pre-Libertadores: 24.9%Sulamericana: 7.1% | 7.1% |
| 16 |  Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.5%Releg: 62.9% | 5.5% |
| 17 |  Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.6% | 0.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 2 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.6% | 93.6% |
| 3 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.5%Releg: 62.9% | 62.9% |
| 4 | Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.4%Releg: 51.6% | 51.6% |
| 5 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 24.7%Releg: 23.6% | 23.6% |
| 6 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 27.4%Releg: 21.7% | 21.7% |
| 7 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 29.7%Releg: 20.0% | 20.0% |
| 8 | Vitória#13Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 35.4%Releg: 14.6% | 14.6% |
| 9 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 53.1%Releg: 5.9% | 5.9% |
| 10 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 64.8%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 11 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 65.2%Releg: 3.0% | 3.0% |
| 12 | Coritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Pre-Libertadores: 6.3%Sulamericana: 73.5%Releg: 1.0% | 1.0% |
Round 28 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 28 | 60 | 71% | 100% | 0% | — | — |
2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9% | 28 | 57 | 27% | 99% | 1% | — | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Pre-Libertadores: 24.9%Sulamericana: 7.1% | 28 | 49 | 1% | 68% | 25% | 7% | — |
4↑1 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Pre-Libertadores: 32.7%Sulamericana: 13.5% | 28 | 48 | 1% | 54% | 33% | 14% | — |
5↓1 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 30.7%Pre-Libertadores: 39.2%Sulamericana: 29.9% | 28 | 46 | 0% | 31% | 39% | 30% | — |
6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Pre-Libertadores: 37.8%Sulamericana: 35.2% | 28 | 45 | 0% | 27% | 38% | 35% | — |
7 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Pre-Libertadores: 30.6%Sulamericana: 54.5% | 28 | 43 | — | 14% | 31% | 55% | — |
8↑3 | Santos#8Libertadores: 5.6%Pre-Libertadores: 18.2%Sulamericana: 71.7% | 28 | 41 | — | 6% | 18% | 72% | — |
9↓1 | Coritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Pre-Libertadores: 6.3%Sulamericana: 73.5%Releg: 1.0% | 28 | 38 | — | 1% | 6% | 74% | 1% |
10↑3 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 64.8%Releg: 3.0% | 28 | 36 | — | 1% | 3% | 65% | 3% |
11↓2 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 3.0%Sulamericana: 65.2%Releg: 3.0% | 28 | 36 | — | 0% | 3% | 65% | 3% |
12↓2 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.7%Sulamericana: 53.1%Releg: 5.9% | 28 | 35 | — | 0% | 2% | 53% | 6% |
13↓1 | Vitória#13Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 35.4%Releg: 14.6% | 28 | 33 | — | — | 1% | 35% | 15% |
14↑1 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 24.7%Releg: 23.6% | 28 | 32 | — | — | 0% | 25% | 24% |
15↓1 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.2%Sulamericana: 27.4%Releg: 21.7% | 28 | 32 | — | — | 0% | 27% | 22% |
16 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.4%Sulamericana: 29.7%Releg: 20.0% | 27 | 31 | — | — | 0% | 30% | 20% |
17 | Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.4%Releg: 51.6% | 28 | 29 | — | — | — | 8% | 52% |
18 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.5%Releg: 62.9% | 28 | 28 | — | — | — | 6% | 63% |
19 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.6% | 28 | 23 | — | — | — | 0% | 94% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.0% | 27 | 18 | — | — | — | — | 99% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Remo#19Copa Sulamericana: 0.3%Relegation: 93.6%10:30 PMGrêmio#17Copa Sulamericana: 8.4%Relegation: 51.6%
10:30 PMGrêmio#17Copa Sulamericana: 8.4%Relegation: 51.6%23%
49%
Internacional#18Copa Sulamericana: 5.5%Relegation: 62.9%10:30 PMCorinthians#15Libertadores Qualification: 0.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.4%Relegation: 21.7%
10:30 PMCorinthians#15Libertadores Qualification: 0.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.4%Relegation: 21.7%40%
29%
Bragantino#11Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 65.2%Relegation: 3.0%10:30 PMMirassol#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 24.7%Relegation: 23.6%
10:30 PMMirassol#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 24.7%Relegation: 23.6%32%
40%
Vitória#13Libertadores Qualification: 0.6%Copa Sulamericana: 35.4%Relegation: 14.6%11:00 PMChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.0%
11:00 PMChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.0%38%
34%
Cruzeiro#6Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 26.8%Libertadores Qualification: 37.8%Copa Sulamericana: 35.2%12:30 AMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 64.8%Relegation: 3.0%
12:30 AMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 0.5%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 64.8%Relegation: 3.0%56%
18%
Santos#8Libertadores: 5.6%Libertadores Qualification: 18.2%Copa Sulamericana: 71.7%10:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%
10:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%44%
29%
Athletico-PR#3Winner: 1.2%Libertadores: 68.0%Libertadores Qualification: 24.9%Copa Sulamericana: 7.1%11:00 PMAtlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Libertadores Qualification: 30.6%Copa Sulamericana: 54.5%
11:00 PMAtlético-MG#7Libertadores: 13.7%Libertadores Qualification: 30.6%Copa Sulamericana: 54.5%54%
19%
Fluminense#4Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 53.8%Libertadores Qualification: 32.7%Copa Sulamericana: 13.5%12:30 AMCoritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 73.5%Relegation: 1.0%
12:30 AMCoritiba#9Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 73.5%Relegation: 1.0%61%
15%
After Round 28: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Coritiba's Sulamericana probability climbed from 46.4% to 73.5% (+27.1%).
- ↓Vasco's Sulamericana probability dropped from 47.1% to 29.7% (-17.4%).
- ↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 81.9% to 68% (-13.9%).
- ↑Grêmio's Releg probability climbed from 38.1% to 51.6% (+13.5%).
- ↓Botafogo's Sulamericana probability dropped from 66.4% to 53.1% (-13.3%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Flamengo currently have the highest title probability at 71%. With 10 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 99%, followed by Remo at 94%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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