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Grêmio Sulamericana Chances 2026 — 28.8%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 23 of 38 · Rank #14 · 22 MP

BrasileirãoCopa do Brasil
Grêmio Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
0.0%
Win
28.4%
Releg
#14
Position
LLDWL
Last 5 matches
Grêmio are in realistic contention for Sulamericana at 28.8%, currently ranked 14th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Grêmio are 14th in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 22 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 28.8% chance of sulamericana — with 15 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, Grêmio have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Grêmio's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Win: 0.0%Since 2026-07-18
  • Libertadores: 0.8%
  • Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%
  • Sulamericana: 28.8%
  • Releg: 28.4%

Brasileirão 2026 — Competition Races:

Title Race →Relegation Battle →

More analysis

Win →Libertadores →Pre-Libertadores →Sulamericana →Releg →Recent form →Upcoming Fixtures →

← View all Brasileirão 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Corinthians Sulamericana ChancesCoritiba Sulamericana ChancesBotafogo Sulamericana ChancesVitória Sulamericana ChancesSão Paulo 2026 Season OddsSantos 2026 Season OddsInternacional 2026 Season OddsMirassol Releg ChancesRemo Releg ChancesVasco Releg Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%7:00 PMGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
53%
22%
Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%9:30 PMChapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4%
26%
51%
Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0%11:00 PMGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
47%
22%
Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%3:00 PMVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8%
26%
51%
Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%3:00 PMPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
26%
51%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-08-16Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AAtlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%3 - 0Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-08-08Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%2 - 1São Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2%
2026-08-05Copa do BrasilGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%1 - 0Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9%
2026-08-02Copa do BrasilMirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9%1 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-07-26Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%1 - 1Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1%
2026-07-17Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AMirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9%2 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-05-30Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%1 - 3Corinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0%
2026-05-23Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%3 - 2Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6%
2026-05-17Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ABahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7%1 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-05-14Copa do BrasilConfiança0 - 3Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-05-10Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%0 - 1Flamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4%
2026-05-02Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AAthletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5%0 - 0Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-04-26Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%1 - 0Coritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8%
2026-04-21Copa do BrasilGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%2 - 0Confiança
2026-04-18Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ACruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4%2 - 0Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-04-11Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AInternacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2%0 - 0Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-04-05Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%0 - 0Remo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3%
2026-04-02Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%2 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-03-22Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8%2 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-03-19Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%2 - 0Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0%
2026-03-16Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AChapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4%1 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-03-12Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%1 - 1Bragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%
2026-02-25Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%2 - 1Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%
2026-02-11Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ASão Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2%2 - 0Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-02-04Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AGrêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%5 - 3Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3%
2026-01-28Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AFluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1%2 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%