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Copa do Brasil 2026·2026-11-06·Round 20

Semifinals, Leg 2: Decisive Matches in the Knockout Stage

By Alberto Ibarra · · Knockout Preview

In the second leg of the semifinals, Atlético-MG and Grêmio will clash on November 7, followed by Vasco taking on Palmeiras on November 8. The results of these matches will determine who advances to the final stage of the tournament. Both fixtures carry substantial implications for each team's chances of progression and ultimate victory.

Atlético-MG face a 0-2 deficit against Grêmio as they head into the second leg at home. Atlético-MG's probability of advancing stands at a mere 13.7%, reflecting the significant challenge they face in overturning the two-goal aggregate. Grêmio, with an 86.3% chance of progressing, are in a commanding position. The outcome will also impact their broader tournament prospects, as Grêmio's likelihood of winning the tournament is currently 40.4%, compared to Atlético-MG's 6.0%.

Meanwhile, Palmeiras hold a narrow 1-0 lead over Vasco going into the second leg. Vasco's chance of advancing is calculated at 28.7%, requiring a decisive performance to shift the balance in their favor. Palmeiras, with a 71.3% probability of progression, have the advantage but the margin is slim enough to keep the outcome uncertain. In terms of tournament victory, Palmeiras have a 39.7% chance, while Vasco's probability stands at 14.0%.

Current team form and any injuries will significantly influence these probabilities, and any changes will be pivotal in the final outcomes of these closely watched semifinals.

Live probability analysis

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