Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 2 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.1% | |
| 2 | 11.6% | |
| 3 | 11.0% | |
| 4 | 10.8% | |
| 5 | 7.3% | |
| 6 | 7.0% | |
| 7 | 5.2% | |
| 8 | 4.9% | |
| 9 | 4.9% | |
| 10 | 4.7% | |
| 11 | 4.6% | |
| 12 | 2.7% | |
| 13 | 2.6% | |
| 14 | 2.5% | |
| 15 | 2.5% | |
| 16 | 1.9% | |
| 17 | 1.8% | |
| 18 | 1.8% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.8% | |
| 2 | 37.9% | |
| 3 | 37.0% | |
| 4 | 36.5% | |
| 5 | 28.0% | |
| 6 | 27.6% | |
| 7 | 22.6% | |
| 8 | 21.8% | |
| 9 | 21.5% | |
| 10 | 21.4% | |
| 11 | 20.7% | |
| 12 | 14.0% | |
| 13 | 13.6% | |
| 14 | 13.4% | |
| 15 | 13.3% | |
| 16 | 11.0% | |
| 17 | 10.5% | |
| 18 | 10.4% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.3% | |
| 2 | 7.3% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | |
| 4 | 7.2% | |
| 5 | 6.6% | |
| 6 | 6.6% | |
| 7 | 6.0% | |
| 8 | 5.9% | |
| 9 | 5.8% | |
| 10 | 5.8% | |
| 11 | 5.7% | |
| 12 | 4.5% | |
| 13 | 4.4% | |
| 14 | 4.3% | |
| 15 | 4.3% | |
| 16 | 3.8% | |
| 17 | 3.7% | |
| 18 | 3.6% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.8% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | |
| 4 | 6.7% | |
| 5 | 6.4% | |
| 6 | 6.4% | |
| 7 | 6.0% | |
| 8 | 5.9% | |
| 9 | 5.9% | |
| 10 | 5.9% | |
| 11 | 5.8% | |
| 12 | 4.8% | |
| 13 | 4.7% | |
| 14 | 4.7% | |
| 15 | 4.6% | |
| 16 | 4.1% | |
| 17 | 4.0% | |
| 18 | 3.9% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.6% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | |
| 3 | 10.3% | |
| 4 | 8.7% | |
| 5 | 8.5% | |
| 6 | 8.2% | |
| 7 | 7.8% | |
| 8 | 4.6% | |
| 9 | 4.4% | |
| 10 | 4.3% | |
| 11 | 4.2% | |
| 12 | 4.1% | |
| 13 | 3.0% | |
| 14 | 2.9% | |
| 15 | 1.6% | |
| 16 | 1.6% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | |
| 18 | 1.5% |
Round 2 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | 2 | 6 | 12% | 39% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
2 | 2 | 6 | 12% | 38% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
3↑2 | 2 | 6 | 11% | 37% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
4↑2 | 2 | 6 | 11% | 37% | 7% | 7% | 2% | |
5↑5 | 2 | 4 | 7% | 28% | 7% | 6% | 3% | |
6↓5 | 2 | 4 | 7% | 28% | 7% | 6% | 3% | |
7↑5 | 2 | 3 | 5% | 23% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
8↓4 | 2 | 3 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
9↑9 | 2 | 3 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
10↑5 | 2 | 3 | 5% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 4% | |
11↓4 | 2 | 3 | 5% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 5% | |
12↓1 | 2 | 1 | 3% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 8% | |
13↓5 | 2 | 1 | 3% | 14% | 4% | 5% | 8% | |
14↑3 | 2 | 1 | 3% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 9% | |
15↓6 | 2 | 1 | 3% | 13% | 4% | 5% | 9% | |
16↓3 | 2 | 0 | 2% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 10% | |
17↓1 | 2 | 0 | 2% | 11% | 4% | 4% | 11% | |
18↓4 | 2 | 0 | 2% | 10% | 4% | 4% | 12% |
WinUCLUELECLReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Union Berlin#15Winner: 2.5%Champions League: 13.3%Europa League: 4.3%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 8.7%
6:30 PM
Schalke 04#14Winner: 2.5%Champions League: 13.4%Europa League: 4.3%Conference League: 4.7%Relegation: 8.5%
38%
40%
FSV Mainz#5Winner: 7.3%Champions League: 28.0%Europa League: 6.6%Conference League: 6.4%Relegation: 2.9%
1:30 PM
Frankfurt#13Winner: 2.6%Champions League: 13.6%Europa League: 4.4%Conference League: 4.7%Relegation: 8.2%
4%
87%
SC Freiburg#2Winner: 11.6%Champions League: 37.9%Europa League: 7.2%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 1.5%
1:30 PM
Gladbach#17Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 10.5%Europa League: 3.7%Conference League: 4.0%Relegation: 11.3%
76%
10%
FC Augsburg#1Winner: 12.1%Champions League: 38.8%Europa League: 7.3%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 1.5%
1:30 PM
Leverkusen#7Winner: 5.2%Champions League: 22.6%Europa League: 6.0%Conference League: 5.9%Relegation: 4.1%
84%
6%
Dortmund#3Winner: 11.0%Champions League: 37.0%Europa League: 7.2%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 1.6%
1:30 PM
Paderborn#12Winner: 2.7%Champions League: 14.0%Europa League: 4.5%Conference League: 4.8%Relegation: 7.8%
60%
20%
Hoffenheim#16Winner: 1.9%Champions League: 11.0%Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 4.1%Relegation: 10.3%
1:30 PM
VfB Stuttgart#9Winner: 4.9%Champions League: 21.5%Europa League: 5.9%Conference League: 5.9%Relegation: 4.3%
26%
54%
FC Köln#11Winner: 4.6%Champions League: 20.7%Europa League: 5.7%Conference League: 5.8%Relegation: 4.6%
4:30 PM
Werder Bremen#10Winner: 4.7%Champions League: 21.4%Europa League: 5.8%Conference League: 5.9%Relegation: 4.4%
26%
53%
RB Leipzig#8Winner: 4.9%Champions League: 21.8%Europa League: 5.8%Conference League: 6.0%Relegation: 4.2%
1:30 PM
Hamburger SV#18Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 10.4%Europa League: 3.6%Conference League: 3.9%Relegation: 11.6%
37%
40%
Elversberg#4Winner: 10.8%Champions League: 36.5%Europa League: 7.3%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 1.6%
3:30 PM
Bayern München#6Winner: 7.0%Champions League: 27.6%Europa League: 6.6%Conference League: 6.4%Relegation: 3.0%
76%
10%
Bayern München#6Winner: 7.0%Champions League: 27.6%Europa League: 6.6%Conference League: 6.4%Relegation: 3.0%
6:30 PM
Union Berlin#15Winner: 2.5%Champions League: 13.3%Europa League: 4.3%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 8.7%
98%
1%
After Round 2: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Gladbach's Releg probability dropped from 82.8% to 11.3% (-71.5%).
- ↓SC Freiburg's Win probability dropped from 77.5% to 11.6% (-65.9%).
- ↓Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 100% to 37% (-63%).
- ↓Elversberg's UCL probability dropped from 81% to 36.5% (-44.5%).
- ↓Bayern München's ECL probability dropped from 43.6% to 6.4% (-37.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, FC Augsburg currently have the highest title probability at 12%. With 32 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Hamburger SV currently faces the highest relegation risk at 12%, followed by Gladbach at 11%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions