Bundesliga 26/27 — Round 5 of 34
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 19.3% |
| 2 |  Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 18.4% |
| 3 |  Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 12.9% |
| 4 |  Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 8.8% |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 7.6% |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 5.1% |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 4.7% |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 3.8% |
| 9 |  Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 10 |  FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 2.6% |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 2.4% |
| 13 |  Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 1.8% |
| 14 |  Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 1.8% |
| 15 |  Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 1.3% |
| 16 |  Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 1.2% |
| 17 |  Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 0.9% |
| 18 |  Gladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 0.3% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 53.8% |
| 2 | Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 53.5% |
| 3 | Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 42.4% |
| 4 | Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 34.6% |
| 5 | RB Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 30.8% |
| 6 | FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 24.4% |
| 7 | Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 23.5% |
| 8 | FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 19.5% |
| 9 | Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 18.9% |
| 10 | FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 18.7% |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 15.1% |
| 12 | Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 14.3% |
| 13 | Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 11.5% |
| 14 | Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 11.2% |
| 15 | Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 16 | Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 8.7% |
| 17 | Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 7.0% |
| 18 | Gladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 2.7% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 8.1% |
| 2 | Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 8.0% |
| 3 | SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 7.9% |
| 4 | Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 7.9% |
| 5 | RB Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 7.2% |
| 6 | FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 6.8% |
| 7 | Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 8 | FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 6.1% |
| 9 | Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 5.9% |
| 10 | FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 5.7% |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 5.1% |
| 12 | Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 4.9% |
| 13 | Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 4.3% |
| 14 | Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 4.2% |
| 15 | Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 3.5% |
| 16 | Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 3.4% |
| 17 | Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 3.0% |
| 18 | Gladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 1.5% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 7.4% |
| 2 | Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 7.2% |
| 3 | RB Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 7.0% |
| 4 | FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 6.9% |
| 5 | Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 6.8% |
| 6 | SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 6.7% |
| 7 | Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 8 | FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 6.2% |
| 9 | Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 6.1% |
| 10 | FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 6.1% |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 5.4% |
| 12 | Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 5.2% |
| 13 | Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 4.8% |
| 14 | Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 4.6% |
| 15 | Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 4.1% |
| 16 | Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 3.8% |
| 17 | Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 3.3% |
| 18 | Gladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 1.7% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 25.8% |
| 2 | Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 11.8% |
| 3 | Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 10.2% |
| 4 | Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 9.1% |
| 5 | Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 7.3% |
| 6 | Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 6.6% |
| 7 | Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 5.6% |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 10 | FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 11 | FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 12 | Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 13 | FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 14 | RB Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 15 | Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 16 | Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 17 | SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 18 | Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 0.3% |
Round 5 of 34
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑2 | SC Freiburg#1Win: 19.3%UCL: 53.8%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 0.3% | 5 | 13 | 19% | 54% | 8% | 7% | 0% |
2↓1 | Borussia Dortmund#2Win: 18.4%UCL: 53.5%UEL: 8.0%ECL: 6.8%Releg: 0.3% | 5 | 13 | 18% | 54% | 8% | 7% | 0% |
3↓1 | Bayern München#3Win: 12.9%UCL: 42.4%UEL: 7.9%ECL: 7.2%Releg: 0.7% | 5 | 11 | 13% | 42% | 8% | 7% | 1% |
4↑1 | Bayer Leverkusen#4Win: 8.8%UCL: 34.6%UEL: 8.1%ECL: 7.4%Releg: 1.1% | 5 | 10 | 9% | 35% | 8% | 7% | 1% |
5↑4 | RasenBallsport Leipzig#5Win: 7.6%UCL: 30.8%UEL: 7.2%ECL: 7.0%Releg: 1.6% | 5 | 9 | 8% | 31% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
6↓2 | FC Augsburg#6Win: 5.1%UCL: 24.4%UEL: 6.8%ECL: 6.9%Releg: 2.3% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 24% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
7↑1 | SV Werder Bremen#7Win: 4.7%UCL: 23.5%UEL: 6.7%ECL: 6.7%Releg: 2.4% | 5 | 8 | 5% | 24% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
8↓2 | FSV Mainz#8Win: 3.8%UCL: 19.5%UEL: 6.1%ECL: 6.2%Releg: 3.3% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
9↓2 | Elversberg#9Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.9%UEL: 5.9%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
10↑3 | FC Köln#10Win: 3.5%UCL: 18.7%UEL: 5.7%ECL: 6.1%Releg: 3.4% | 5 | 7 | 4% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
11↑4 | VfB Stuttgart#11Win: 2.6%UCL: 15.1%UEL: 5.1%ECL: 5.4%Releg: 4.8% | 5 | 6 | 3% | 15% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
12↑4 | Hamburger SV#12Win: 2.4%UCL: 14.3%UEL: 4.9%ECL: 5.2%Releg: 5.6% | 5 | 6 | 2% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 6% |
13↓2 | Schalke 04#13Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.5%UEL: 4.3%ECL: 4.8%Releg: 6.6% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 12% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
14↓4 | Eintracht Frankfurt#14Win: 1.8%UCL: 11.2%UEL: 4.2%ECL: 4.6%Releg: 7.3% | 5 | 5 | 2% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 7% |
15↓3 | Paderborn#15Win: 1.3%UCL: 9.1%UEL: 3.5%ECL: 4.1%Releg: 9.1% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 9% |
16↑1 | Union Berlin#16Win: 1.2%UCL: 8.7%UEL: 3.4%ECL: 3.8%Releg: 10.2% | 5 | 4 | 1% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 10% |
17↓3 | Hoffenheim#17Win: 0.9%UCL: 7.0%UEL: 3.0%ECL: 3.3%Releg: 11.8% | 5 | 3 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 12% |
18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach#18Win: 0.3%UCL: 2.7%UEL: 1.5%ECL: 1.7%Releg: 25.8% | 5 | 0 | 0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 26% |
WinUCLUELECLReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Schalke 04#13Winner: 1.8%Champions League: 11.5%Europa League: 4.3%Conference League: 4.8%Relegation: 6.6%1:30 PMFSV Mainz#8Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 19.5%Europa League: 6.1%Conference League: 6.2%Relegation: 3.3%
1:30 PMFSV Mainz#8Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 19.5%Europa League: 6.1%Conference League: 6.2%Relegation: 3.3%52%
26%
Hamburger SV#12Winner: 2.4%Champions League: 14.3%Europa League: 4.9%Conference League: 5.2%Relegation: 5.6%1:30 PMVfB Stuttgart#11Winner: 2.6%Champions League: 15.1%Europa League: 5.1%Conference League: 5.4%Relegation: 4.8%
1:30 PMVfB Stuttgart#11Winner: 2.6%Champions League: 15.1%Europa League: 5.1%Conference League: 5.4%Relegation: 4.8%46%
31%
Union Berlin#16Winner: 1.2%Champions League: 8.7%Europa League: 3.4%Conference League: 3.8%Relegation: 10.2%1:30 PMDortmund#2Winner: 18.4%Champions League: 53.5%Europa League: 8.0%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 0.3%
1:30 PMDortmund#2Winner: 18.4%Champions League: 53.5%Europa League: 8.0%Conference League: 6.8%Relegation: 0.3%31%
45%
Elversberg#9Winner: 3.5%Champions League: 18.9%Europa League: 5.9%Conference League: 6.1%Relegation: 3.4%1:30 PMFC Augsburg#6Winner: 5.1%Champions League: 24.4%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.3%
1:30 PMFC Augsburg#6Winner: 5.1%Champions League: 24.4%Europa League: 6.8%Conference League: 6.9%Relegation: 2.3%34%
44%
Werder Bremen#7Winner: 4.7%Champions League: 23.5%Europa League: 6.7%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 2.4%1:30 PMPaderborn#15Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.1%Relegation: 9.1%
1:30 PMPaderborn#15Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.1%Relegation: 9.1%67%
14%
Bayern München#3Winner: 12.9%Champions League: 42.4%Europa League: 7.9%Conference League: 7.2%Relegation: 0.7%4:30 PMRB Leipzig#5Winner: 7.6%Champions League: 30.8%Europa League: 7.2%Conference League: 7.0%Relegation: 1.6%
4:30 PMRB Leipzig#5Winner: 7.6%Champions League: 30.8%Europa League: 7.2%Conference League: 7.0%Relegation: 1.6%83%
6%
Leverkusen#4Winner: 8.8%Champions League: 34.6%Europa League: 8.1%Conference League: 7.4%Relegation: 1.1%1:30 PMSC Freiburg#1Winner: 19.3%Champions League: 53.8%Europa League: 7.9%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 0.3%
1:30 PMSC Freiburg#1Winner: 19.3%Champions League: 53.8%Europa League: 7.9%Conference League: 6.7%Relegation: 0.3%67%
14%
Gladbach#18Winner: 0.3%Champions League: 2.7%Europa League: 1.5%Conference League: 1.7%Relegation: 25.8%3:30 PMHoffenheim#17Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 7.0%Europa League: 3.0%Conference League: 3.3%Relegation: 11.8%
3:30 PMHoffenheim#17Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 7.0%Europa League: 3.0%Conference League: 3.3%Relegation: 11.8%40%
39%
Paderborn#15Winner: 1.3%Champions League: 9.1%Europa League: 3.5%Conference League: 4.1%Relegation: 9.1%5:00 PMHamburger SV#12Winner: 2.4%Champions League: 14.3%Europa League: 4.9%Conference League: 5.2%Relegation: 5.6%
5:00 PMHamburger SV#12Winner: 2.4%Champions League: 14.3%Europa League: 4.9%Conference League: 5.2%Relegation: 5.6%47%
29%
After Round 5: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Dortmund's UCL probability dropped from 84.2% to 53.5% (-30.7%).
- ↓Bayern München's UCL probability dropped from 62.7% to 42.4% (-20.3%).
- ↓RB Leipzig's UCL probability dropped from 48.4% to 30.8% (-17.6%).
- ↑FSV Mainz's UCL probability climbed from 3.3% to 19.5% (+16.2%).
- ↑Elversberg's UCL probability climbed from 5.5% to 18.9% (+13.4%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Bundesliga 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
ECL:
Bundesliga 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, SC Freiburg currently have the highest title probability at 19%. With 29 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Bundesliga 26/27?
- Gladbach currently faces the highest relegation risk at 26%, followed by Hoffenheim at 12%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Bundesliga 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Bundesliga 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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