Champions League 2026/27 — Round 12 of 13
Updated at
Expected champion
Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.
Barcelona19.0%→Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
PSV Eindhoven#16Champion: 0.4%Final: 1.5%Semifinals: 5.5%Quarterfinals: 16.9%Round of 16: 45.5%Playoff Spot: 74.4%Eliminated: 25.6%
4:45 PM
Shakhtar#21Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 3.9%Quarterfinals: 12.0%Round of 16: 34.5%Playoff Spot: 62.0%Eliminated: 38.0%
4:45 PMShakhtar#21Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 3.9%Quarterfinals: 12.0%Round of 16: 34.5%Playoff Spot: 62.0%Eliminated: 38.0%49%
28%
Fenerbahçe#17Champion: 0.4%Final: 1.5%Semifinals: 5.5%Quarterfinals: 16.8%Round of 16: 45.3%Playoff Spot: 74.4%Eliminated: 25.6%
4:45 PM
Roma#6Champion: 3.6%Final: 8.8%Semifinals: 19.8%Quarterfinals: 40.0%Round of 16: 71.5%Playoff Spot: 88.7%Eliminated: 11.3%
4:45 PMRoma#6Champion: 3.6%Final: 8.8%Semifinals: 19.8%Quarterfinals: 40.0%Round of 16: 71.5%Playoff Spot: 88.7%Eliminated: 11.3%63%
16%
Como#12Champion: 0.8%Final: 2.5%Semifinals: 7.6%Quarterfinals: 19.7%Round of 16: 46.8%Playoff Spot: 72.7%Eliminated: 27.3%
7:00 PM
RB Leipzig#34Final: 0.1%Semifinals: 0.5%Quarterfinals: 2.1%Round of 16: 10.1%Playoff Spot: 29.6%Eliminated: 70.4%
7:00 PMRB Leipzig#34Final: 0.1%Semifinals: 0.5%Quarterfinals: 2.1%Round of 16: 10.1%Playoff Spot: 29.6%Eliminated: 70.4%45%
28%
Bayern München#1Champion: 23.4%Final: 37.2%Semifinals: 55.6%Quarterfinals: 78.6%Round of 16: 97.0%Playoff Spot: 99.3%Eliminated: 0.7%
7:00 PM
Bodø/Glimt#22Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 4.1%Quarterfinals: 12.7%Round of 16: 36.4%Playoff Spot: 65.0%Eliminated: 35.0%
7:00 PMBodø/Glimt#22Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 4.1%Quarterfinals: 12.7%Round of 16: 36.4%Playoff Spot: 65.0%Eliminated: 35.0%77%
9%
Man United#8Champion: 2.5%Final: 7.0%Semifinals: 17.1%Quarterfinals: 36.9%Round of 16: 69.3%Playoff Spot: 87.8%Eliminated: 12.2%
7:00 PM
Sabah FK#26Champion: 0.2%Final: 0.8%Semifinals: 2.7%Quarterfinals: 8.3%Round of 16: 25.5%Playoff Spot: 49.6%Eliminated: 50.4%
7:00 PMSabah FK#26Champion: 0.2%Final: 0.8%Semifinals: 2.7%Quarterfinals: 8.3%Round of 16: 25.5%Playoff Spot: 49.6%Eliminated: 50.4%25%
52%
Slavia Praha#20Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 3.9%Quarterfinals: 11.8%Round of 16: 34.5%Playoff Spot: 62.6%Eliminated: 37.4%
7:00 PM
RC Lens#19Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 4.2%Quarterfinals: 12.8%Round of 16: 36.1%Playoff Spot: 63.6%Eliminated: 36.4%
7:00 PMRC Lens#19Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 4.2%Quarterfinals: 12.8%Round of 16: 36.1%Playoff Spot: 63.6%Eliminated: 36.4%39%
33%
Sabah FK#26Champion: 0.2%Final: 0.8%Semifinals: 2.7%Quarterfinals: 8.3%Round of 16: 25.5%Playoff Spot: 49.6%Eliminated: 50.4%4:45 PMSlavia Praha#20Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 3.9%Quarterfinals: 11.8%Round of 16: 34.5%Playoff Spot: 62.6%Eliminated: 37.4%
4:45 PMSlavia Praha#20Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 3.9%Quarterfinals: 11.8%Round of 16: 34.5%Playoff Spot: 62.6%Eliminated: 37.4%30%
41%
RC Lens#19Champion: 0.3%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 4.2%Quarterfinals: 12.8%Round of 16: 36.1%Playoff Spot: 63.6%Eliminated: 36.4%4:45 PM
Sporting CP#15Champion: 0.4%Final: 1.4%Semifinals: 4.6%Quarterfinals: 13.4%Round of 16: 38.1%Playoff Spot: 67.6%Eliminated: 32.4%
4:45 PMSporting CP#15Champion: 0.4%Final: 1.4%Semifinals: 4.6%Quarterfinals: 13.4%Round of 16: 38.1%Playoff Spot: 67.6%Eliminated: 32.4%22%
52%
Viking FK#32Champion: 0.1%Final: 0.5%Semifinals: 2.0%Quarterfinals: 6.4%Round of 16: 21.9%Playoff Spot: 46.6%Eliminated: 53.4%
7:00 PMBayern München#1Champion: 23.4%Final: 37.2%Semifinals: 55.6%Quarterfinals: 78.6%Round of 16: 97.0%Playoff Spot: 99.3%Eliminated: 0.7%
7:00 PMBayern München#1Champion: 23.4%Final: 37.2%Semifinals: 55.6%Quarterfinals: 78.6%Round of 16: 97.0%Playoff Spot: 99.3%Eliminated: 0.7%42%
30%
Villarreal#36Semifinals: 0.2%Quarterfinals: 1.1%Round of 16: 6.6%Playoff Spot: 23.4%Eliminated: 76.6%
7:00 PM
Napoli#10Champion: 1.1%Final: 3.3%Semifinals: 8.8%Quarterfinals: 20.8%Round of 16: 46.2%Playoff Spot: 71.0%Eliminated: 29.0%
7:00 PMNapoli#10Champion: 1.1%Final: 3.3%Semifinals: 8.8%Quarterfinals: 20.8%Round of 16: 46.2%Playoff Spot: 71.0%Eliminated: 29.0%25%
51%
Results
Wed, Sep 9
Tue, Sep 8
After Round 12: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑PSG's Play-offs probability climbed from 53.8% to 80.5% (+26.7%).
- ↓Slovan Bratislava's Play-offs probability dropped from 58.9% to 34.6% (-24.3%).
- ↑Sporting CP's Play-offs probability climbed from 47.9% to 67.6% (+19.7%).
- ↑VfB Stuttgart's Play-offs probability climbed from 58.1% to 76.9% (+18.8%).
- ↓Galatasaray's Play-offs probability dropped from 63.9% to 47.7% (-16.2%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Champions League 2026/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Champions League 2026/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Barcelona currently have the highest title probability at 19%. With 1 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- How does CupChances calculate Champions League 2026/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Champions League 2026/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions