Premier League 26/27 — Round 3 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man City#1Win: 16.1%UCL: 45.9%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 2.7% | 16.1% |
| 2 |  Arsenal#2Win: 15.5%UCL: 45.3%UEL: 7.3%Releg: 2.8% | 15.5% |
| 3 |  Hull City#3Win: 9.2%UCL: 33.0%UEL: 6.9%Releg: 5.4% | 9.2% |
| 4 |  Chelsea#4Win: 6.6%UCL: 26.8%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.6% | 6.6% |
| 5 |  Brentford#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.4% | 5.7% |
| 6 |  Newcastle#7Win: 5.4%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 5.4% |
| 7 |  Liverpool#6Win: 5.3%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.7% | 5.3% |
| 8 |  Everton#8Win: 5.3%UCL: 22.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 9.7% | 5.3% |
| 9 |  Leeds United#9Win: 5.1%UCL: 21.9%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 5.1% |
| 10 |  Brighton#10Win: 4.3%UCL: 19.7%UEL: 5.4%Releg: 12.1% | 4.3% |
| 11 |  Man United#11Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.0%UEL: 5.2%Releg: 12.9% | 3.8% |
| 12 |  Sunderland#12Win: 3.7%UCL: 17.7%UEL: 5.1%Releg: 13.1% | 3.7% |
| 13 |  Crystal Palace#13Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.7%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.6% | 2.7% |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town#14Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.8%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.7% | 2.7% |
| 15 |  Forest#16Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.7%Releg: 21.0% | 2.0% |
| 16 |  Bournemouth#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 1.9% |
| 17 |  Aston Villa#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.2% | 1.4% |
| 18 |  Tottenham#18Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.3% | 1.4% |
| 19 |  Fulham#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.6%UEL: 2.6%Releg: 30.9% | 1.0% |
| 20 |  Coventry City#20Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 32.5% | 0.9% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City#1Win: 16.1%UCL: 45.9%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 2.7% | 45.9% |
| 2 | Arsenal#2Win: 15.5%UCL: 45.3%UEL: 7.3%Releg: 2.8% | 45.3% |
| 3 | Hull City#3Win: 9.2%UCL: 33.0%UEL: 6.9%Releg: 5.4% | 33.0% |
| 4 | Chelsea#4Win: 6.6%UCL: 26.8%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.6% | 26.8% |
| 5 | Brentford#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.4% | 23.8% |
| 6 | Liverpool#6Win: 5.3%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.7% | 23.0% |
| 7 | Newcastle#7Win: 5.4%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 23.0% |
| 8 | Everton#8Win: 5.3%UCL: 22.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 9.7% | 22.6% |
| 9 | Leeds United#9Win: 5.1%UCL: 21.9%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 21.9% |
| 10 | Brighton#10Win: 4.3%UCL: 19.7%UEL: 5.4%Releg: 12.1% | 19.7% |
| 11 | Man United#11Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.0%UEL: 5.2%Releg: 12.9% | 18.0% |
| 12 | Sunderland#12Win: 3.7%UCL: 17.7%UEL: 5.1%Releg: 13.1% | 17.7% |
| 13 | Ipswich Town#14Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.8%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.7% | 13.8% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace#13Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.7%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.6% | 13.7% |
| 15 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 11.1% |
| 16 | Forest#16Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.7%Releg: 21.0% | 11.1% |
| 17 | Aston Villa#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.2% | 8.3% |
| 18 | Tottenham#18Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.3% | 8.3% |
| 19 | Fulham#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.6%UEL: 2.6%Releg: 30.9% | 6.6% |
| 20 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 32.5% | 6.4% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal#2Win: 15.5%UCL: 45.3%UEL: 7.3%Releg: 2.8% | 7.3% |
| 2 | Man City#1Win: 16.1%UCL: 45.9%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 2.7% | 7.2% |
| 3 | Hull City#3Win: 9.2%UCL: 33.0%UEL: 6.9%Releg: 5.4% | 6.9% |
| 4 | Chelsea#4Win: 6.6%UCL: 26.8%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.6% | 6.4% |
| 5 | Brentford#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.4% | 5.9% |
| 6 | Liverpool#6Win: 5.3%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.7% | 5.9% |
| 7 | Newcastle#7Win: 5.4%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 5.9% |
| 8 | Everton#8Win: 5.3%UCL: 22.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 9.7% | 5.8% |
| 9 | Leeds United#9Win: 5.1%UCL: 21.9%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 5.7% |
| 10 | Brighton#10Win: 4.3%UCL: 19.7%UEL: 5.4%Releg: 12.1% | 5.4% |
| 11 | Man United#11Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.0%UEL: 5.2%Releg: 12.9% | 5.2% |
| 12 | Sunderland#12Win: 3.7%UCL: 17.7%UEL: 5.1%Releg: 13.1% | 5.1% |
| 13 | Crystal Palace#13Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.7%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.6% | 4.3% |
| 14 | Ipswich Town#14Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.8%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.7% | 4.3% |
| 15 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 3.8% |
| 16 | Forest#16Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.7%Releg: 21.0% | 3.7% |
| 17 | Aston Villa#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.2% | 3.0% |
| 18 | Tottenham#18Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.3% | 3.0% |
| 19 | Fulham#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.6%UEL: 2.6%Releg: 30.9% | 2.6% |
| 20 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 32.5% | 2.5% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 32.5% | 32.5% |
| 2 | Fulham#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.6%UEL: 2.6%Releg: 30.9% | 30.9% |
| 3 | Tottenham#18Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.3% | 27.3% |
| 4 | Aston Villa#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.2% | 27.2% |
| 5 | Forest#16Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.7%Releg: 21.0% | 21.0% |
| 6 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 20.7% |
| 7 | Ipswich Town#14Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.8%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.7% | 17.7% |
| 8 | Crystal Palace#13Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.7%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.6% | 17.6% |
| 9 | Sunderland#12Win: 3.7%UCL: 17.7%UEL: 5.1%Releg: 13.1% | 13.1% |
| 10 | Man United#11Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.0%UEL: 5.2%Releg: 12.9% | 12.9% |
| 11 | Brighton#10Win: 4.3%UCL: 19.7%UEL: 5.4%Releg: 12.1% | 12.1% |
| 12 | Leeds United#9Win: 5.1%UCL: 21.9%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 10.1% |
| 13 | Liverpool#6Win: 5.3%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.7% | 9.7% |
| 14 | Everton#8Win: 5.3%UCL: 22.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 9.7% | 9.7% |
| 15 | Newcastle#7Win: 5.4%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 16 | Brentford#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 17 | Chelsea#4Win: 6.6%UCL: 26.8%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 18 | Hull City#3Win: 9.2%UCL: 33.0%UEL: 6.9%Releg: 5.4% | 5.4% |
| 19 | Arsenal#2Win: 15.5%UCL: 45.3%UEL: 7.3%Releg: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 20 | Man City#1Win: 16.1%UCL: 45.9%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 2.7% | 2.7% |
Round 3 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manchester City#1Win: 16.1%UCL: 45.9%UEL: 7.2%Releg: 2.7% | 3 | 9 | 16% | 46% | 7% | 3% |
2 | Arsenal#2Win: 15.5%UCL: 45.3%UEL: 7.3%Releg: 2.8% | 3 | 9 | 16% | 45% | 7% | 3% |
3 | Hull City#3Win: 9.2%UCL: 33.0%UEL: 6.9%Releg: 5.4% | 3 | 7 | 9% | 33% | 7% | 5% |
4 | Chelsea#4Win: 6.6%UCL: 26.8%UEL: 6.4%Releg: 7.6% | 3 | 6 | 7% | 27% | 6% | 8% |
5 | Brentford#5Win: 5.7%UCL: 23.8%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.4% | 3 | 5 | 6% | 24% | 6% | 9% |
6↑7 | Liverpool#6Win: 5.3%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.7% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 23% | 6% | 10% |
7↓1 | Newcastle#7Win: 5.4%UCL: 23.0%UEL: 5.9%Releg: 9.6% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 23% | 6% | 10% |
8↓1 | Everton#8Win: 5.3%UCL: 22.6%UEL: 5.8%Releg: 9.7% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 23% | 6% | 10% |
9↓1 | Leeds United#9Win: 5.1%UCL: 21.9%UEL: 5.7%Releg: 10.1% | 3 | 5 | 5% | 22% | 6% | 10% |
10↓1 | Brighton#10Win: 4.3%UCL: 19.7%UEL: 5.4%Releg: 12.1% | 3 | 4 | 4% | 20% | 5% | 12% |
11↓1 | Manchester United#11Win: 3.8%UCL: 18.0%UEL: 5.2%Releg: 12.9% | 3 | 4 | 4% | 18% | 5% | 13% |
12↓1 | Sunderland#12Win: 3.7%UCL: 17.7%UEL: 5.1%Releg: 13.1% | 3 | 4 | 4% | 18% | 5% | 13% |
13↑5 | Crystal Palace#13Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.7%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.6% | 3 | 3 | 3% | 14% | 4% | 18% |
14↓2 | Ipswich Town#14Win: 2.7%UCL: 13.8%UEL: 4.3%Releg: 17.7% | 3 | 3 | 3% | 14% | 4% | 18% |
15↓1 | Bournemouth#15Win: 1.9%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.8%Releg: 20.7% | 3 | 2 | 2% | 11% | 4% | 21% |
16↓1 | Nottingham Forest#16Win: 2.0%UCL: 11.1%UEL: 3.7%Releg: 21.0% | 3 | 2 | 2% | 11% | 4% | 21% |
17↑2 | Aston Villa#17Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.2% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 8% | 3% | 27% |
18↑2 | Tottenham#18Win: 1.4%UCL: 8.3%UEL: 3.0%Releg: 27.3% | 3 | 1 | 1% | 8% | 3% | 27% |
19↓3 | Fulham#19Win: 1.0%UCL: 6.6%UEL: 2.6%Releg: 30.9% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 7% | 3% | 31% |
20↓3 | Coventry City#20Win: 0.9%UCL: 6.4%UEL: 2.5%Releg: 32.5% | 3 | 0 | 1% | 6% | 3% | 33% |
WinUCLUELReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Aston Villa#17Winner: 1.4%Champions League: 8.3%Europa League: 3.0%Relegation: 27.2%2:00 PMForest#16Winner: 2.0%Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 3.7%Relegation: 21.0%
2:00 PMForest#16Winner: 2.0%Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 3.7%Relegation: 21.0%65%
13%
Liverpool#6Winner: 5.3%Champions League: 23.0%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.7%2:00 PMFulham#19Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 6.6%Europa League: 2.6%Relegation: 30.9%
2:00 PMFulham#19Winner: 1.0%Champions League: 6.6%Europa League: 2.6%Relegation: 30.9%51%
23%
Crystal Palace#13Winner: 2.7%Champions League: 13.7%Europa League: 4.3%Relegation: 17.6%2:00 PMIpswich Town#14Winner: 2.7%Champions League: 13.8%Europa League: 4.3%Relegation: 17.7%
2:00 PMIpswich Town#14Winner: 2.7%Champions League: 13.8%Europa League: 4.3%Relegation: 17.7%7%
79%
Bournemouth#15Winner: 1.9%Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 3.8%Relegation: 20.7%2:00 PMBrentford#5Winner: 5.7%Champions League: 23.8%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.4%
2:00 PMBrentford#5Winner: 5.7%Champions League: 23.8%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.4%64%
15%
Chelsea#4Winner: 6.6%Champions League: 26.8%Europa League: 6.4%Relegation: 7.6%2:00 PMHull City#3Winner: 9.2%Champions League: 33.0%Europa League: 6.9%Relegation: 5.4%
2:00 PMHull City#3Winner: 9.2%Champions League: 33.0%Europa League: 6.9%Relegation: 5.4%50%
25%
Tottenham#18Winner: 1.4%Champions League: 8.3%Europa League: 3.0%Relegation: 27.3%4:30 PMEverton#8Winner: 5.3%Champions League: 22.6%Europa League: 5.8%Relegation: 9.7%
4:30 PMEverton#8Winner: 5.3%Champions League: 22.6%Europa League: 5.8%Relegation: 9.7%17%
58%
Sunderland#12Winner: 3.7%Champions League: 17.7%Europa League: 5.1%Relegation: 13.1%7:00 PMArsenal#2Winner: 15.5%Champions League: 45.3%Europa League: 7.3%Relegation: 2.8%
7:00 PMArsenal#2Winner: 15.5%Champions League: 45.3%Europa League: 7.3%Relegation: 2.8%31%
42%
Coventry City#20Winner: 0.9%Champions League: 6.4%Europa League: 2.5%Relegation: 32.5%1:00 PMBrighton#10Winner: 4.3%Champions League: 19.7%Europa League: 5.4%Relegation: 12.1%
1:00 PMBrighton#10Winner: 4.3%Champions League: 19.7%Europa League: 5.4%Relegation: 12.1%54%
19%
Man United#11Winner: 3.8%Champions League: 18.0%Europa League: 5.2%Relegation: 12.9%3:30 PMMan City#1Winner: 16.1%Champions League: 45.9%Europa League: 7.2%Relegation: 2.7%
3:30 PMMan City#1Winner: 16.1%Champions League: 45.9%Europa League: 7.2%Relegation: 2.7%73%
10%
Leeds United#9Winner: 5.1%Champions League: 21.9%Europa League: 5.7%Relegation: 10.1%7:00 PMNewcastle#7Winner: 5.4%Champions League: 23.0%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.6%
7:00 PMNewcastle#7Winner: 5.4%Champions League: 23.0%Europa League: 5.9%Relegation: 9.6%51%
23%
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Coventry City's Releg probability dropped from 100% to 32.5% (-67.5%).
- ↓Man City's UCL probability dropped from 100% to 45.9% (-54.1%).
- ↓Chelsea's UCL probability dropped from 68.5% to 26.8% (-41.7%).
- ↓Fulham's Releg probability dropped from 71.6% to 30.9% (-40.7%).
- ↓Hull City's UCL probability dropped from 67.6% to 33% (-34.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Premier League 26/27 — Season Outlook
Win:
UCL:
UEL:
Premier League 26/27 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Premier League 26/27?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Man City currently have the highest title probability at 16%. With 35 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Premier League 26/27?
- Coventry City currently faces the highest relegation risk at 33%, followed by Fulham at 31%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Premier League 26/27 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Premier League 26/27 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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