Copa do Brasil 2026
Updated at
Expected champion
Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.
Palmeiras35.4%→Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 35.4% |
| 2 |  Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 17.9% |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 10.5% |
| 4 |  Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 9.7% |
| 5 |  Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 7.8% |
| 6 |  Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 6.8% |
| 7 |  Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 6.4% |
| 8 |  Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 5.6% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 54.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 34.4% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 21.9% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 19.1% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 16.9% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 15.8% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 14.7% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 54.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 34.4% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 21.9% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 19.1% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 16.9% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 15.8% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 14.7% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 73.9% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 59.9% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 49.5% |
| 4 | Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 48.2% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 45.3% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 42.6% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 40.9% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 39.6% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 | Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 | Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 5 | Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 6 | Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 7 | Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Round 3 of 0 — Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | F | SF | QF | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras#1Win: 35.4%Final: 54.0%SF: 54.0%QF: 73.9%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 35% | 54% | 54% | 74% | 100% |
2 | Grêmio#2Win: 17.9%Final: 34.4%SF: 34.4%QF: 59.9%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 18% | 34% | 34% | 60% | 100% |
3 | Cruzeiro#3Win: 10.5%Final: 23.2%SF: 23.2%QF: 49.5%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 10% | 23% | 23% | 50% | 100% |
4 | Santos#4Win: 9.7%Final: 21.9%SF: 21.9%QF: 48.2%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 10% | 22% | 22% | 48% | 100% |
5 | Internacional#5Win: 7.8%Final: 19.1%SF: 19.1%QF: 45.3%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 8% | 19% | 19% | 45% | 100% |
6 | Vasco#6Win: 6.8%Final: 16.9%SF: 16.9%QF: 42.6%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 7% | 17% | 17% | 43% | 100% |
7 | Vitória#7Win: 6.4%Final: 15.8%SF: 15.8%QF: 40.9%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 6% | 16% | 16% | 41% | 100% |
8 | Atlético-MG#8Win: 5.6%Final: 14.7%SF: 14.7%QF: 39.6%R16: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 6% | 15% | 15% | 40% | 100% |
9 |  Mirassol#9 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
10 |  Chapecoense#10 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
11 |  Athletico-PR#11 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
12 |  Fortaleza#12 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
13 |  Remo#13 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
14 |  Juventude#14 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
15 |  Corinthians#15 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
16 |  Fluminense#16 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Win
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Cruzeiro#3Copa do Brasil Champion: 10.5%Reaches Final: 23.2%Reaches Semifinals: 23.2%Reaches Quarterfinals: 49.5%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:00 AMAtlético-MG#8Copa do Brasil Champion: 5.6%Reaches Final: 14.7%Reaches Semifinals: 14.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 39.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:00 AMAtlético-MG#8Copa do Brasil Champion: 5.6%Reaches Final: 14.7%Reaches Semifinals: 14.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 39.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%45%
26%
Vasco#6Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.8%Reaches Final: 16.9%Reaches Semifinals: 16.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 42.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:30 AMVitória#7Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.4%Reaches Final: 15.8%Reaches Semifinals: 15.8%Reaches Quarterfinals: 40.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:30 AMVitória#7Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.4%Reaches Final: 15.8%Reaches Semifinals: 15.8%Reaches Quarterfinals: 40.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%55%
22%
Palmeiras#1Copa do Brasil Champion: 35.4%Reaches Final: 54.0%Reaches Semifinals: 54.0%Reaches Quarterfinals: 73.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:30 AMSantos#4Copa do Brasil Champion: 9.7%Reaches Final: 21.9%Reaches Semifinals: 21.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 48.2%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:30 AMSantos#4Copa do Brasil Champion: 9.7%Reaches Final: 21.9%Reaches Semifinals: 21.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 48.2%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%65%
14%
Internacional#5Copa do Brasil Champion: 7.8%Reaches Final: 19.1%Reaches Semifinals: 19.1%Reaches Quarterfinals: 45.3%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%11:00 PMGrêmio#2Copa do Brasil Champion: 17.9%Reaches Final: 34.4%Reaches Semifinals: 34.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 59.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
11:00 PMGrêmio#2Copa do Brasil Champion: 17.9%Reaches Final: 34.4%Reaches Semifinals: 34.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 59.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%50%
26%
Atlético-MG#8Copa do Brasil Champion: 5.6%Reaches Final: 14.7%Reaches Semifinals: 14.7%Reaches Quarterfinals: 39.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:00 AMCruzeiro#3Copa do Brasil Champion: 10.5%Reaches Final: 23.2%Reaches Semifinals: 23.2%Reaches Quarterfinals: 49.5%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:00 AMCruzeiro#3Copa do Brasil Champion: 10.5%Reaches Final: 23.2%Reaches Semifinals: 23.2%Reaches Quarterfinals: 49.5%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%39%
32%
Vitória#7Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.4%Reaches Final: 15.8%Reaches Semifinals: 15.8%Reaches Quarterfinals: 40.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:30 AMVasco#6Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.8%Reaches Final: 16.9%Reaches Semifinals: 16.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 42.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:30 AMVasco#6Copa do Brasil Champion: 6.8%Reaches Final: 16.9%Reaches Semifinals: 16.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 42.6%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%52%
23%
Santos#4Copa do Brasil Champion: 9.7%Reaches Final: 21.9%Reaches Semifinals: 21.9%Reaches Quarterfinals: 48.2%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%12:30 AMPalmeiras#1Copa do Brasil Champion: 35.4%Reaches Final: 54.0%Reaches Semifinals: 54.0%Reaches Quarterfinals: 73.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
12:30 AMPalmeiras#1Copa do Brasil Champion: 35.4%Reaches Final: 54.0%Reaches Semifinals: 54.0%Reaches Quarterfinals: 73.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%26%
49%
Grêmio#2Copa do Brasil Champion: 17.9%Reaches Final: 34.4%Reaches Semifinals: 34.4%Reaches Quarterfinals: 59.9%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%11:00 PMInternacional#5Copa do Brasil Champion: 7.8%Reaches Final: 19.1%Reaches Semifinals: 19.1%Reaches Quarterfinals: 45.3%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%
11:00 PMInternacional#5Copa do Brasil Champion: 7.8%Reaches Final: 19.1%Reaches Semifinals: 19.1%Reaches Quarterfinals: 45.3%Reaches Round of 16: 100.0%49%
25%
Results
Thu, Aug 6
Wed, Aug 5
Tue, Aug 4
Mon, Aug 3
Sun, Aug 2
Sat, Aug 1
Thu, May 14
Wed, May 13
Tue, May 12
Thu, Apr 23
Wed, Apr 22
Tue, Apr 21
Thu, Mar 19
Wed, Mar 18
Tue, Mar 17
Thu, Mar 12
Wed, Mar 11
Tue, Mar 10
Thu, Mar 5
Wed, Mar 4
Thu, Feb 26
Wed, Feb 25
After Round 3: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Vitória have mathematically secured R16.
- ↓Athletico-PR have been mathematically eliminated from R16.
- ↑Internacional have mathematically secured R16.
- ↓Corinthians have been mathematically eliminated from R16.
- ↑Palmeiras's Final probability climbed from 52.3% to 54% (+1.7%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Copa do Brasil 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Final:
SF:
QF:
Copa do Brasil 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Copa do Brasil 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 35%. With -3 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- How does CupChances calculate Copa do Brasil 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Copa do Brasil 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.