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Palmeiras Libertadores Chances 2026 — 97.4%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 23 of 38 · Rank #1 · 23 MP

BrasileirãoCopa do BrasilCopa Libertadores
Palmeiras Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
51.3%
Win
0.0%
Releg
#1
Position
WLWDL
Last 5 matches
Palmeiras are the clear favourites for Libertadores at 97.4%, currently ranked 1st — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Palmeiras are 1st in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 23 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 97.4% chance of libertadores — with 15 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, Palmeiras have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their libertadores probability, Palmeiras's win chance currently stands at 51.3%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Palmeiras's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Win: 51.3%
  • Libertadores: 97.4%
  • Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%
  • Sulamericana: 0.4%
  • Releg: 0.0%Since 2026-04-26

Brasileirão 2026 — Competition Races:

Title Race →Relegation Battle →

More analysis

Win →Libertadores →Pre-Libertadores →Sulamericana →Releg →Recent form →Upcoming Fixtures →

← View all Brasileirão 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Flamengo Libertadores ChancesAthletico-PR Libertadores ChancesFluminense Libertadores ChancesCruzeiro Pre-Libertadores ChancesBahia Pre-Libertadores Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%7:00 PMVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8%
59%
17%
Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9%10:30 PMPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
32%
41%
Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3%9:30 PMPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
49%
26%
Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%3:00 PMSão Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2%
59%
17%
Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%3:00 PMPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
26%
51%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-08-15Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AFluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1%3 - 2Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-08-12Copa LibertadoresPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 1Cerro Porteño
2026-08-09Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%0 - 0Internacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2%
2026-08-05Copa do BrasilFortaleza3 - 2Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-08-02Copa do BrasilPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%3 - 0Fortaleza
2026-07-29Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AVitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0%0 - 4Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-07-26Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 2Atlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%
2026-07-22Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ACoritiba#10Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 5.4%Pre-Libertadores: 11.3%Sulamericana: 52.7%Releg: 5.8%1 - 3Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-05-31Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 0Chapecoense#20Sulamericana: 0.1%Releg: 98.4%
2026-05-28Copa LibertadoresPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%4 - 1Junior
2026-05-23Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AFlamengo#2Win: 36.4%Libertadores: 93.7%Pre-Libertadores: 4.9%Sulamericana: 1.4%0 - 3Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-05-16Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 1Cruzeiro#5Win: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.1%Pre-Libertadores: 26.1%Sulamericana: 41.1%Releg: 0.4%
2026-05-13Copa do BrasilJacuipense1 - 4Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-05-10Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ARemo#18Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.6%Sulamericana: 11.9%Releg: 55.3%1 - 1Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-05-05Copa LibertadoresSporting Cristal0 - 2Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-05-02Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 1Santos#15Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.9%Sulamericana: 29.2%Releg: 27.6%
2026-04-26Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ABragantino#7Win: 0.4%Libertadores: 14.3%Pre-Libertadores: 20.1%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%0 - 1Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-04-23Copa do BrasilPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%3 - 0Jacuipense
2026-04-19Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 0Athletico-PR#3Win: 7.8%Libertadores: 69.8%Pre-Libertadores: 18.3%Sulamericana: 11.5%
2026-04-16Copa LibertadoresPalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%2 - 1Sporting Cristal
2026-04-12Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ACorinthians#9Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 7.5%Pre-Libertadores: 14.5%Sulamericana: 54.1%Releg: 4.0%0 - 0Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-04-08Copa LibertadoresJunior1 - 1Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-04-05Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ABahia#6Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.1%Pre-Libertadores: 20.5%Sulamericana: 51.3%Releg: 1.7%1 - 2Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-04-02Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%2 - 1Grêmio#14Libertadores: 0.8%Pre-Libertadores: 2.8%Sulamericana: 28.8%Releg: 28.4%
2026-03-21Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série ASão Paulo#13Libertadores: 2.3%Pre-Libertadores: 6.0%Sulamericana: 41.2%Releg: 15.2%0 - 1Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-03-18Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%2 - 1Botafogo#11Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.9%Pre-Libertadores: 13.1%Sulamericana: 52.3%Releg: 5.3%
2026-03-15Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%1 - 0Mirassol#17Libertadores: 0.4%Pre-Libertadores: 1.4%Sulamericana: 19.6%Releg: 41.9%
2026-03-12Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AVasco#19Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8%Sulamericana: 13.7%Releg: 52.8%2 - 1Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-02-25Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%2 - 1Fluminense#4Win: 2.0%Libertadores: 41.8%Pre-Libertadores: 26.9%Sulamericana: 28.9%Releg: 0.1%
2026-02-12Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AInternacional#16Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.9%Sulamericana: 15.9%Releg: 47.2%1 - 3Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%
2026-02-04Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série APalmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%5 - 1Vitória#12Libertadores: 2.8%Pre-Libertadores: 7.1%Sulamericana: 44.8%Releg: 12.0%
2026-01-28Campeonato Brasileiro 2025, Série AAtlético-MG#8Win: 0.3%Libertadores: 14.4%Pre-Libertadores: 19.8%Sulamericana: 50.5%Releg: 2.0%2 - 2Palmeiras#1Win: 51.3%Libertadores: 97.4%Pre-Libertadores: 2.2%Sulamericana: 0.4%