Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Round 1 of 3
Updated at
Expected champion
Open the knockout detail page for the full elimination-stage outlook.
Santa Fe25.4%→Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Fe#1Win: 25.4%Final: 62.0%SF: 54.6% | 25.4% |
| 2 |  Santos#2Win: 23.9%Final: 81.0%SF: 77.7% | 23.9% |
| 3 |  São Paulo#3Win: 20.7%Final: 53.2%SF: 81.9% | 20.7% |
| 4 |  Vasco#4Win: 18.8%Final: 47.5%SF: 45.4% | 18.8% |
| 5 |  Cienciano#5Win: 7.9%Final: 41.0%SF: 100.0% | 7.9% |
| 6 |  Atlético Mineiro#6Win: 2.4%Final: 12.3%SF: 22.3% | 2.4% |
| 7 |  Boca Juniors#7Win: 0.9%Final: 3.1%SF: 18.1% | 0.9% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos#2Win: 23.9%Final: 81.0%SF: 77.7% | 81.0% |
| 2 | Santa Fe#1Win: 25.4%Final: 62.0%SF: 54.6% | 62.0% |
| 3 | São Paulo#3Win: 20.7%Final: 53.2%SF: 81.9% | 53.2% |
| 4 | Vasco#4Win: 18.8%Final: 47.5%SF: 45.4% | 47.5% |
| 5 | Cienciano#5Win: 7.9%Final: 41.0%SF: 100.0% | 41.0% |
| 6 | Atlético Mineiro#6Win: 2.4%Final: 12.3%SF: 22.3% | 12.3% |
| 7 | Boca Juniors#7Win: 0.9%Final: 3.1%SF: 18.1% | 3.1% |
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cienciano#5Win: 7.9%Final: 41.0%SF: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 | São Paulo#3Win: 20.7%Final: 53.2%SF: 81.9% | 81.9% |
| 3 | Santos#2Win: 23.9%Final: 81.0%SF: 77.7% | 77.7% |
| 4 | Santa Fe#1Win: 25.4%Final: 62.0%SF: 54.6% | 54.6% |
| 5 | Vasco#4Win: 18.8%Final: 47.5%SF: 45.4% | 45.4% |
| 6 | Atlético Mineiro#6Win: 2.4%Final: 12.3%SF: 22.3% | 22.3% |
| 7 | Boca Juniors#7Win: 0.9%Final: 3.1%SF: 18.1% | 18.1% |
| 8 |  Montevideo City Torque#8SF: 0.0% | 0.0% |
Round 1 of 3
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | F | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑5 | Independiente Santa Fe#1Win: 25.4%Final: 62.0%SF: 54.6% | 0 | 0 | 25% | 62% | 55% |
2 | Santos#2Win: 23.9%Final: 81.0%SF: 77.7% | 0 | 0 | 24% | 81% | 78% |
3↓2 | São Paulo#3Win: 20.7%Final: 53.2%SF: 81.9% | 0 | 0 | 21% | 53% | 82% |
4↓1 | Vasco#4Win: 18.8%Final: 47.5%SF: 45.4% | 0 | 0 | 19% | 47% | 45% |
5↓1 | Cienciano#5Win: 7.9%Final: 41.0%SF: 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 8% | 41% | 100% |
6↑1 | Atlético Mineiro#6Win: 2.4%Final: 12.3%SF: 22.3% | 0 | 0 | 2% | 12% | 22% |
7↑1 | Boca Juniors#7Win: 0.9%Final: 3.1%SF: 18.1% | 0 | 0 | 1% | 3% | 18% |
8↓3 | Montevideo City Torque#8SF: 0.0% | 0 | 0 | — | — | 0% |
Win
Next matches
Santos#2Winner: 23.9%Reaches Final: 81.0%Reaches Semifinals: 77.7%2-0Atlético Mineiro#6Winner: 2.4%Reaches Final: 12.3%Reaches Semifinals: 22.3%
2-0Atlético Mineiro#6Winner: 2.4%Reaches Final: 12.3%Reaches Semifinals: 22.3%Cienciano#5Winner: 7.9%Reaches Final: 41.0%Reaches Semifinals: 100.0%21:30Montevideo City Torque#8Reaches Semifinals: 0.0%
21:30Montevideo City Torque#8Reaches Semifinals: 0.0%99%
0%
São Paulo#3Winner: 20.7%Reaches Final: 53.2%Reaches Semifinals: 81.9%21:30Boca Juniors#7Winner: 0.9%Reaches Final: 3.1%Reaches Semifinals: 18.1%
21:30Boca Juniors#7Winner: 0.9%Reaches Final: 3.1%Reaches Semifinals: 18.1%68%
12%
Atlético Mineiro#6Winner: 2.4%Reaches Final: 12.3%Reaches Semifinals: 22.3%19:00Santos#2Winner: 23.9%Reaches Final: 81.0%Reaches Semifinals: 77.7%
19:00Santos#2Winner: 23.9%Reaches Final: 81.0%Reaches Semifinals: 77.7%37%
35%
Montevideo City Torque#8Reaches Semifinals: 0.0%21:30Cienciano#5Winner: 7.9%Reaches Final: 41.0%Reaches Semifinals: 100.0%
21:30Cienciano#5Winner: 7.9%Reaches Final: 41.0%Reaches Semifinals: 100.0%0%
99%
After Round 1: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Cienciano have mathematically secured SF.
- ↓Montevideo City Torque have been mathematically eliminated from SF.
- ↑Santa Fe's Final probability climbed from 25.2% to 62% (+36.8%).
- ↑Santos's Final probability climbed from 61.2% to 81% (+19.8%).
- ↓São Paulo's Final probability dropped from 72.8% to 53.2% (-19.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Final:
Copa Sul-Americana 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Copa Sul-Americana 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Santa Fe currently have the highest title probability at 25%. With 2 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- How does CupChances calculate Copa Sul-Americana 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Copa Sul-Americana 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.