Copa Sul-Americana 2026
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
1 – 1
L1 0–0L2 1–1
4 – 1
L1 0–0L2 4–1
7 – 1
L1 3–1L2 4–0
2 – 4
L1 1–1L2 1–3
0 – 2
L1 0–0L2 0–2
2 – 1
L1 1–0L2 1–1
2 – 3
L1 1–0L2 1–3
confirmed
63%37%
2 – 1
L1 2–1L2 0–0
2 – 3
L1 0–1L2 2–2
6 – 2
L1 6–1L2 0–1
1 – 3
L1 0–1L2 1–2
4 – 4
L1 2–0L2 2–4
2 – 3
L1 2–0L2 0–3
3 – 2
L1 3–0L2 0–2
Final
confirmed
Boca Juniors
Atlético-MG
63%37%
Semifinals
Vasco
2
Boca Juniors
3
L1: 1–0L2: 1–3
Atlético-MG
3
Montevideo City Torque
2
L1: 3–0L2: 0–2
Quarterfinals
Independiente Santa Fe
0
Vasco
2
L1: 0–0L2: 0–2
Boca Juniors
2
São Paulo
1
L1: 1–0L2: 1–1
Santos
4
Atlético-MG
4
L1: 2–0L2: 2–4
Cienciano
2
Montevideo City Torque
3
L1: 2–0L2: 0–3
Round of 16
Independiente Santa Fe
1
River Plate
1
L1: 0–0L2: 1–1
Vasco
4
Olimpia
1
L1: 0–0L2: 4–1
Boca Juniors
7
Recoleta FC
1
L1: 3–1L2: 4–0
Bolívar
2
São Paulo
4
L1: 1–1L2: 1–3
Santos
2
Macará
1
L1: 2–1L2: 0–0
Bragantino
2
Atlético-MG
3
L1: 0–1L2: 2–2
Cienciano
6
Botafogo
2
L1: 6–1L2: 0–1
Tigre
1
Montevideo City Torque
3
L1: 0–1L2: 1–2
The Quarterfinal draw is already fixed - later rounds show the team more likely to advance in each tie, not a re-draw.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | Win |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62.6% | |
| 2 | 37.4% |