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Copa Sul-Americana 2026

KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK

Knockout bracket outlook

Predicted bracket based on up to 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

Final

confirmed
Boca Juniors
Atlético-MG
63%37%

Semifinals

Vasco
2
Boca Juniors
3
L1: 1–0L2: 1–3
Atlético-MG
3
Montevideo City Torque
2
L1: 3–0L2: 0–2

Quarterfinals

Independiente Santa Fe
0
Vasco
2
L1: 0–0L2: 0–2
Boca Juniors
2
São Paulo
1
L1: 1–0L2: 1–1
Santos
4
Atlético-MG
4
L1: 2–0L2: 2–4
Cienciano
2
Montevideo City Torque
3
L1: 2–0L2: 0–3

Round of 16

Independiente Santa Fe
1
River Plate
1
L1: 0–0L2: 1–1
Vasco
4
Olimpia
1
L1: 0–0L2: 4–1
Boca Juniors
7
Recoleta FC
1
L1: 3–1L2: 4–0
Bolívar
2
São Paulo
4
L1: 1–1L2: 1–3
Santos
2
Macará
1
L1: 2–1L2: 0–0
Bragantino
2
Atlético-MG
3
L1: 0–1L2: 2–2
Cienciano
6
Botafogo
2
L1: 6–1L2: 0–1
Tigre
1
Montevideo City Torque
3
L1: 0–1L2: 1–2

The Quarterfinal draw is already fixed - later rounds show the team more likely to advance in each tie, not a re-draw.

Knockout probability table

#TeamWin
1Boca Juniors logoBoca Juniors62.6%
2Atlético-MG logoAtlético-MG37.4%