Copa Sul-Americana 2026
PROJECTION PHASE FINALE
Tableau des phases éliminatoires
Tableau prévu d'après jusqu'à 1 000 000 de simulations Monte-Carlo.
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
COL
ARG1 – 1
L1 0–0L2 1–1
BRA
PAR4 – 1
L1 0–0L2 4–1
ARG
PAR7 – 1
L1 3–1L2 4–0
BRA2 – 4
L1 1–1L2 1–3
COLBRA0 – 0
L1 0–0
ARGBRA1 – 0
L1 1–0
COLARG97%3%
COL
76%24%
BRA
ECU2 – 1
L1 2–1L2 0–0
BRA
BRA2 – 3
L1 0–1L2 2–2
BRA6 – 2
L1 6–1L2 0–1
ARG
URU1 – 3
L1 0–1L2 1–2
BRABRA2 – 0
L1 2–0
confirmé
URU100%0%
BRA 75%25%
Final
Independiente Santa Fe
Cienciano
76%24%
Semifinals
Independiente Santa Fe
Boca Juniors
97%3%
Santos
Cienciano
75%25%
Quarterfinals
Independiente Santa Fe
0
Vasco
0
L1: 0–0
Boca Juniors
1
São Paulo
0
L1: 1–0
Santos
2
Atlético Mineiro
0
L1: 2–0
confirmé
Cienciano
Montevideo City Torque
100%0%
Round of 16
Independiente Santa Fe
1
River Plate
1
L1: 0–0L2: 1–1
Vasco
4
Olimpia
1
L1: 0–0L2: 4–1
Boca Juniors
7
Recoleta FC
1
L1: 3–1L2: 4–0
Bolívar
2
São Paulo
4
L1: 1–1L2: 1–3
Santos
2
Macará
1
L1: 2–1L2: 0–0
Bragantino
2
Atlético Mineiro
3
L1: 0–1L2: 2–2
Cienciano
6
Botafogo
2
L1: 6–1L2: 0–1
Tigre
1
Montevideo City Torque
3
L1: 0–1L2: 1–2
Le tirage des Quarts de finale est déjà fixé - les tours suivants montrent l'équipe la plus susceptible de se qualifier à chaque confrontation, pas un nouveau tirage.
Tableau des probabilités de phase finale
| # | Équipe | Demies | Finale | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente Santa Fe | 54.6% | 62.0% | 25.4% |
| 2 |  Santos | 77.7% | 81.0% | 23.9% |
| 3 |  São Paulo | 81.9% | 53.2% | 20.7% |
| 4 |  Vasco | 45.4% | 47.5% | 18.8% |
| 5 |  Cienciano | 100.0% | 41.0% | 7.9% |
| 6 |  Atlético Mineiro | 22.3% | 12.3% | 2.4% |
| 7 |  Boca Juniors | 18.1% | 3.1% | 0.9% |