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Mexico World Cup 2026 — 100.0% Round of 16

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 104 of 94 · Rank #4 · 2 MP

How far can Mexico go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Mexico's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Mexico FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
0.0%
Winner
0.0%
Group Stage Exit
#4
Position
WWWL
Last 4 matches
Mexico are the clear favourites for Round of 16 at 100.0%, currently ranked 4th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Mexico are 4th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 2 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 100.0% chance of round of 16 — with -10 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 4 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Mexico have recorded 3 wins, 1 defeat. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Mexico's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.0%Since 2026-07-05
  • Final: 0.0%Since 2026-07-05
  • Semifinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-05
  • Quarterfinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-05
  • Round of 16: 100.0%Since 2026-07-03
  • Knockout: 100.0%Since 2026-06-18
  • Group Stage Exit: 0.0%Since 2026-06-18

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Spain Winner ChancesCzech Republic Final ChancesSouth Korea Semifinals ChancesSouth Africa Quarterfinals ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Quarterfinals ChancesQatar Quarterfinals ChancesSwitzerland Quarterfinals ChancesCanada Round of 16 Chances

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-07-05Mexico#4Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%2 - 3England#47Final: 100.0%Semifinals: 100.0%Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-30Mexico#4Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%2 - 0Ecuador#20Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-24Czech Republic#2Group Stage Exit: 100.0%0 - 3Mexico#4Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-18Mexico#4Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%1 - 0South Korea#3Group Stage Exit: 100.0%