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FIFA World Cup 2026·2026-06-24·Round 49

Bosnia and Herzegovina Clinches Knockout Spot; Qatar and Czech Republic Out

By Alberto Ibarra · · Round-up

Bosnia and Herzegovina have solidified their position in the Knockout Stage, with their probability jumping from 59.1% to 99.8% following their decisive 3-1 victory over Qatar. This win simultaneously eliminated Qatar from the Knockout Stage race, dropping their chances from 20.5% to 0.0%, and confirming their Group Stage Exit at 100.0%.

South Africa beat South Korea 1-0, and the result moved their Knockout Stage probability from 76.8% to 100.0%, confirming their place in the next round outright. Their Group Stage Exit probability fell from 23.2% to 0.0%. South Korea's defeat leaves their own Knockout Stage chances at 19.0%, down from 27.8%.

The Czech Republic's defeat to Mexico has sealed their fate, as all probabilities of advancing further have now dropped to 0.0%, securing a Group Stage Exit at 100.0%. Mexico's Knockout Stage probability holds at 100.0% following the 3-0 win, with their Final probability up to 13.3% from 11.5%.

Canada's Semifinals probability ticked down slightly to 4.5%, from 4.7%, after a 2-1 loss to Switzerland, though their Knockout Stage qualification remains secure at 100.0%. Switzerland's win lifted their own Round of 16 probability from 72.3% to 79.2%.

As the tournament progresses, attention now shifts to upcoming matches with major implications for teams on the edge of qualification.

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