La Liga Relegation Battle 2026
La Liga 2025/26
Every La Liga team ranked by their live probability of relegation — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every matchday.
Mayores Cambios en Esta Jornada
Relegation Battle — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Oviedo | 100.0% |
| 2 | Levante | 74.1% |
| 3 | Alavés | 41.6% |
| 4 | Sevilla | 28.2% |
| 5 | Girona | 18.9% |
| 6 | Mallorca | 14.2% |
| 7 | Elche | 13.3% |
| 8 | Espanyol | 9.2% |
| 9 | Osasuna | 0.2% |
| 10 | Valencia | 0.2% |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 0.1% |
| 12 | Barcelona | 0.0% |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 0.0% |
| 14 | Villarreal | 0.0% |
| 15 | Atlético de Madrid | 0.0% |
| 16 | Betis | 0.0% |
| 17 | Celta | 0.0% |
| 18 | Getafe | 0.0% |
| 19 | Athletic Bilbao | 0.0% |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 0.0% |
En vivo — actualizado cada 10 minutos durante cada partidoRound 35
Sobre Esta Lucha
The bottom three teams in La Liga are relegated. This live model shows which clubs are most at risk as the season progresses.
Cómo Se Calculan Estas Probabilidades
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the relegation places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Ver tabla completa de La Liga 2025/26 →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.