La Liga Relegation Battle 2026
La Liga 2025/26
Every La Liga team ranked by their live probability of relegation — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every matchday.
Biggest Movers This Round
Relegation Battle — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Oviedo | 100.0% |
| 2 | Levante | 73.9% |
| 3 | Alavés | 41.3% |
| 4 | Sevilla | 28.2% |
| 5 | Girona | 19.9% |
| 6 | Mallorca | 13.9% |
| 7 | Elche | 13.7% |
| 8 | Espanyol | 8.8% |
| 9 | Osasuna | 0.2% |
| 10 | Valencia | 0.2% |
| 11 | Barcelona | 0.0% |
| 12 | Real Madrid | 0.0% |
| 13 | Villarreal | 0.0% |
| 14 | Atlético de Madrid | 0.0% |
| 15 | Betis | 0.0% |
| 16 | Celta | 0.0% |
| 17 | Getafe | 0.0% |
| 18 | Athletic Bilbao | 0.0% |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 0.0% |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 35
About This Race
The bottom three teams in La Liga are relegated. This live model shows which clubs are most at risk as the season progresses.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the relegation places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full La Liga 2025/26 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.