La Liga 25/26 — Round 38 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid#2Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Villarreal#3Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 |  Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Betis#5Europa League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celta#6Conference League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levante#16Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Girona#19Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Round 38 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | ECL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 94 | 100% | 100% | — | — | — |
2 | Real Madrid#2Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 86 | — | 100% | — | — | — |
3↑1 | Villarreal#3Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 72 | — | 100% | — | — | — |
4↓1 | Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 69 | — | 100% | — | — | — |
5 | Betis#5Europa League: 100.0% | 38 | 60 | — | — | 100% | — | — |
6 | Celta#6Conference League: 100.0% | 38 | 54 | — | — | — | 100% | — |
7 |  Getafe#7 | 38 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — |
8 |  Rayo Vallecano#8 | 38 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — |
9 |  Valencia#9 | 38 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — |
10 |  Real Sociedad#10 | 38 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — |
11 |  Espanyol#11 | 38 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — |
12↑2 |  Athletic Bilbao#12 | 38 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — |
13↓1 |  Sevilla#13 | 38 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — |
14↓1 |  Alavés#14 | 38 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — |
15↑1 |  Elche#15 | 38 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — |
16↑1 | Levante#16Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 42 | — | — | — | — | 100% |
17↓2 |  Osasuna#17 | 38 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — |
18↑1 |  Mallorca#18 | 38 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — |
19↓1 | Girona#19Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 41 | — | — | — | — | 100% |
20 | Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 29 | — | — | — | — | 100% |
WinnerChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation
After Round 38: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Mallorca have been mathematically eliminated from Relegation.
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
La Liga 25/26 — Season Outlook
Champions League:
Europa League:
Conference League:
La Liga 25/26 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the La Liga 25/26?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Barcelona currently have the highest title probability at 100%. With 0 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the La Liga 25/26?
- Levante currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Girona at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate La Liga 25/26 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the La Liga 25/26 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.