La Liga 25/26 — Round 33 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% | 99.8% |
| 2 |  Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 0.2% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 3 |  Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 4 |  Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% | 99.7% |
| 5 |  Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% | 0.3% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% | 87.1% |
| 2 |  Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6% | 4.2% |
| 3 |  Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7% | 3.8% |
| 4 |  Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.3% | 3.1% |
| 5 |  Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4% | 0.9% |
| 6 |  Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 7 | Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8 |  Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 0.1% |
Probability of qualifying for the Conference League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6% | 30.6% |
| 2 | Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7% | 23.7% |
| 3 | Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.3% | 16.3% |
| 4 | Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4% | 10.4% |
| 5 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% | 9.6% |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% | 4.6% |
| 7 |  Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8% | 1.2% |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1.2% |
| 9 |  Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 10 |  Elche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1% | 0.8% |
| 11 |  Girona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9% | 0.4% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3% | 99.3% |
| 2 |  Levante#19Relegation: 66.8% | 66.8% |
| 3 |  Sevilla#18Relegation: 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 4 |  Mallorca#17Relegation: 31.9% | 31.9% |
| 5 |  Alavés#16Relegation: 21.2% | 21.2% |
| 6 | Girona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9% | 8.9% |
| 7 | Elche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 8 | Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 9 | Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 2.5% |
| 11 | Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% | 0.4% |
Round 33 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% | 33 | 85 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 87 | 30 | 57 |
2 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 33 | 74 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 |
3 | Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9% | 33 | 67 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 59 | 37 | 22 |
4 | Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% | 33 | 60 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 56 | 37 | 19 |
5 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% | 33 | 50 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 |
6 | Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7% | 33 | 44 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 34 | -6 |
7 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6% | 33 | 44 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 43 | 2 |
8 | Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.3% | 33 | 43 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 52 | 52 | 0 |
9↑1 | Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4% | 33 | 42 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 40 | -1 |
10↓1 | Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% | 33 | 41 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 36 | 48 | -12 |
11↑3 | Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8% | 33 | 39 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 |
12↓1 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 33 | 39 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 33 | 41 | -8 |
13 | Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5% | 33 | 39 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 49 | -12 |
14↑2 | Elche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1% | 33 | 38 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 44 | 50 | -6 |
15↓3 | Girona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9% | 33 | 38 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 |
16↑2 | Alavés#16Relegation: 21.2% | 33 | 36 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 |
17↓2 | Mallorca#17Relegation: 31.9% | 33 | 35 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 |
18↓1 | Sevilla#18Relegation: 57.5% | 33 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 40 | 55 | -15 |
19 | Levante#19Relegation: 66.8% | 33 | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 |
20 | Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3% | 33 | 27 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 51 | -26 |
WinnerChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6%3:00 PMElche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1%
3:00 PMElche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1%40%
34%
Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7%3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%41%
23%
Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6%3:00 PMReal Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3%
3:00 PMReal Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3%61%
18%
19%
60%
58%
19%
Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5%3:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%
3:00 PMReal Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9%35%
39%
Alavés#16Relegation: 21.2%3:00 PMAthletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4%
3:00 PMAthletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4%22%
56%
Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4%3:00 PMBarcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9%
3:00 PMBarcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9%46%
29%
Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8%3:00 PMAtlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3%
3:00 PMAtlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3%24%
54%
La Liga 25/26 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the La Liga 25/26?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Barcelona currently have the highest title probability at 100%. With 5 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the La Liga 25/26?
- Real Oviedo currently faces the highest relegation risk at 99%, followed by Levante at 67%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate La Liga 25/26 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the La Liga 25/26 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.