Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?

Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 45%. With 23 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?

Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 71%, followed by Remo at 62%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.

How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?

Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.

How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?

Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Brasileirão 2026 — Round 15 of 38

Updated at 5/11/26, 2:02 AM

Probability of winning the championship

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%	45.1%
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	28.1%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	9.2%
4	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	4.0%
5	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	3.1%
6	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	3.0%
7	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	1.1%
8	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	1.0%
9	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	1.0%
10	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	0.9%
11	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	0.8%
12	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	0.7%
13	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	0.5%
14	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	0.4%
15	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	0.4%
16	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	0.4%
17	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	0.3%
18	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	0.1%

Probability of access to Libertadores group phase

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%	87.6%
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	76.3%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	50.2%
4	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	30.8%
5	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	26.3%
6	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	25.6%
7	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	13.2%
8	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	12.6%
9	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	11.7%
10	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	11.6%
11	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	10.8%
12	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	8.9%
13	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	7.0%
14	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	6.5%
15	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	6.4%
16	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	6.3%
17	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	4.8%
18	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	2.2%
19	Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%	0.7%
20	Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%	0.4%

Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase

#	Team	%
1	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	18.1%
2	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	18.0%
3	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	17.1%
4	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	17.1%
5	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	12.0%
6	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	11.9%
7	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	11.7%
8	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	11.5%
9	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	11.4%
10	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	10.7%
11	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	9.5%
12	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	8.2%
13	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	7.9%
14	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	7.9%
15	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	7.7%
16	Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%	7.2%
17	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	6.3%
18	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	3.4%
19	Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%	1.5%
20	Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%	0.9%

Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana

#	Team	%
1	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	39.6%
2	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	39.6%
3	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	39.4%
4	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	39.0%
5	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	38.3%
6	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	38.0%
7	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	37.6%
8	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	37.3%
9	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	36.1%
10	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	35.1%
11	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	34.7%
12	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	34.6%
13	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	34.2%
14	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	31.4%
15	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	25.5%
16	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	21.6%
17	Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%	13.1%
18	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	10.8%
19	Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%	9.0%
20	Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%	5.0%

Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship

#	Team	%
1	Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%	71.4%
2	Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%	61.5%
3	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	44.9%
4	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	28.2%
5	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	23.6%
6	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	23.0%
7	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	22.9%
8	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	22.0%
9	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	18.0%
10	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	16.1%
11	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	13.7%
12	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	13.6%
13	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	13.1%
14	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	12.8%
15	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	5.2%
16	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	5.1%
17	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	3.6%
18	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	1.1%
19	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	0.1%

Round 15 of 38

Standings

#	Team	MP	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Title	Lib	LQ	Sul	Rel
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%	15	34	10	4	1	25	12	13	45%	88%	7%	5%	—
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%	14	30	9	3	2	27	12	15	28%	76%	12%	11%	0%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%	15	27	8	3	4	25	20	5	9%	50%	18%	26%	1%
4	São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%	15	24	7	3	5	21	16	5	4%	31%	18%	36%	4%
5	Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%	15	23	7	2	6	20	16	4	3%	26%	17%	38%	5%
6	Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%	14	22	6	4	4	20	18	2	3%	26%	17%	38%	5%
7	Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%	15	20	6	2	7	17	18	-1	1%	13%	12%	40%	13%
8↑4	Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%	15	20	5	5	5	21	21	0	1%	12%	12%	40%	14%
9↓1	Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%	15	20	5	5	5	18	19	-1	1%	12%	11%	39%	14%
10↑5	Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%	15	19	5	4	6	20	25	-5	1%	9%	10%	37%	18%
11↓2	Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%	14	19	5	4	5	18	20	-2	1%	13%	12%	39%	13%
12↓2	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%	14	18	5	3	6	26	27	-1	1%	11%	11%	38%	16%
13↓2	Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%	15	18	5	3	7	18	21	-3	1%	7%	8%	35%	22%
14↓1	Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%	15	18	4	6	5	16	16	0	0%	7%	8%	35%	23%
15↑1	Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%	15	18	4	6	5	21	22	-1	0%	6%	8%	35%	23%
16↑1	Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%	15	18	4	6	5	13	15	-2	0%	6%	8%	34%	24%
17↓3	Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%	15	17	4	5	6	15	17	-2	0%	5%	6%	31%	28%
18	Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%	14	13	3	4	7	16	20	-4	0%	2%	3%	22%	45%
19	Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%	15	12	2	6	7	16	25	-9	—	1%	2%	13%	62%
20	Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%	14	9	1	6	7	14	27	-13	—	0%	1%	9%	71%

WinnerLibertadoresLibertadores QualificationCopa SulamericanaRelegation

After Round 15: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?

↑Fluminense's Libertadores probability climbed from 17.2% to 50.2% (+33%).
↓Mirassol's Relegation probability dropped from 71.5% to 44.9% (-26.6%).
↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 51.6% to 25.6% (-26%).
↑Grêmio's Relegation probability climbed from 5.4% to 28.2% (+22.8%).
↓Palmeiras's Winner probability dropped from 65.8% to 45.1% (-20.7%).

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

May 16

Internacional#14Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.5%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.7%Relegation: 22.9%

9:30 PM

Vasco#8Winner: 0.9%Libertadores: 11.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.7%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 13.6%

35%

37%

Atlético-MG#13Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.0%Libertadores Qualification: 8.2%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 22.0%

9:30 PM

Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.4%Copa Sulamericana: 21.6%Relegation: 44.9%

35%

40%

Fluminense#3Winner: 9.2%Libertadores: 50.2%Libertadores Qualification: 18.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.5%Relegation: 1.1%

11:30 PM

São Paulo#4Winner: 4.0%Libertadores: 30.8%Libertadores Qualification: 18.1%Copa Sulamericana: 36.1%Relegation: 3.6%

37%

May 17

Palmeiras#1Winner: 45.1%Libertadores: 87.6%Libertadores Qualification: 7.2%Copa Sulamericana: 5.0%

12:00 AM

Cruzeiro#10Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.9%Libertadores Qualification: 9.5%Copa Sulamericana: 37.3%Relegation: 18.0%

68%

11%

Santos#15Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 7.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 23.0%

2:00 PM

Coritiba#9Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 11.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.4%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 13.7%

46%

29%

Bahia#6Winner: 3.1%Libertadores: 26.3%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 37.6%Relegation: 5.2%

7:00 PM

Grêmio#17Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 6.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.2%

45%

32%

Botafogo#12Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.8%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.0%Relegation: 16.1%

7:00 PM

Corinthians#16Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 6.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.2%Relegation: 23.6%

42%

32%

Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 0.9%Copa Sulamericana: 9.0%Relegation: 71.4%

9:30 PM

Remo#19Libertadores: 0.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.5%Copa Sulamericana: 13.1%Relegation: 61.5%

33%

43%

Bragantino#7Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 12.6%Libertadores Qualification: 11.9%Copa Sulamericana: 39.6%Relegation: 12.8%

9:30 PM

Vitória#11Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 12.0%Copa Sulamericana: 39.0%Relegation: 13.1%

63%

17%

Athletico-PR#5Winner: 3.0%Libertadores: 25.6%Libertadores Qualification: 17.1%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 5.1%

10:30 PM

Flamengo#2Winner: 28.1%Libertadores: 76.3%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 10.8%Relegation: 0.1%

60%

17%

Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook

Winner:

Palmeiras Winner Chances (45.1%)Flamengo Winner Chances (28.1%)Fluminense Winner Chances (9.2%)São Paulo Winner Chances (4.0%)Bahia Winner Chances (3.1%)Athletico-PR Winner Chances (3.0%)

Libertadores:

Palmeiras Libertadores Chances (87.6%)Flamengo Libertadores Chances (76.3%)Fluminense Libertadores Chances (50.2%)São Paulo Libertadores Chances (30.8%)Bahia Libertadores Chances (26.3%)Athletico-PR Libertadores Chances (25.6%)

Libertadores Qualification:

São Paulo Libertadores Qualification Chances (18.1%)Fluminense Libertadores Qualification Chances (18.0%)Athletico-PR Libertadores Qualification Chances (17.1%)Bahia Libertadores Qualification Chances (17.1%)Vitória Libertadores Qualification Chances (12.0%)Bragantino Libertadores Qualification Chances (11.9%)

Copa Sulamericana:

Bragantino Copa Sulamericana Chances (39.6%)Vasco Copa Sulamericana Chances (39.6%)Coritiba Copa Sulamericana Chances (39.4%)Vitória Copa Sulamericana Chances (39.0%)Athletico-PR Copa Sulamericana Chances (38.3%)Botafogo Copa Sulamericana Chances (38.0%)

Relegation:

Chapecoense Relegation Chances (71.4%)Remo Relegation Chances (61.5%)Mirassol Relegation Chances (44.9%)Grêmio Relegation Chances (28.2%)Corinthians Relegation Chances (23.6%)Santos Relegation Chances (23.0%)

Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?: Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 45%. With 23 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?: Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 71%, followed by Remo at 62%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?: Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?: Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Past editions