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Grêmio Relegation Chances 2026 — 35.9%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 21 of 38 · Rank #16 · 20 MP

Grêmio Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
0.0%
Winner
35.9%
Relegation
#16
Position
DWLLD
Last 5 matches
Grêmio are in realistic contention for Relegation at 35.9%, currently ranked 16th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Grêmio are 16th in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 20 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 35.9% chance of relegation — with 17 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, Grêmio have recorded 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Grêmio's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.0%Since 2026-07-18
  • Libertadores: 1.2%
  • Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%
  • Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%
  • Relegation: 35.9%

Brasileirão 2026 — Competition Races:

Title Race →Relegation Battle →

← View all Brasileirão 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Coritiba Copa Sulamericana ChancesVitória Copa Sulamericana ChancesSão Paulo 2026 Season OddsMirassol 2026 Season OddsInternacional 2026 Season OddsSantos Relegation ChancesVasco Relegation ChancesRemo Relegation ChancesChapecoense Relegation Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%7:00 PMSão Paulo#13Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 10.1%Copa Sulamericana: 44.7%Relegation: 11.5%
22%
55%
Atlético-MG#10Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 12.4%Libertadores Qualification: 15.2%Copa Sulamericana: 47.0%Relegation: 5.7%7:30 PMGrêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
39%
34%
Bragantino#6Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.4%Libertadores Qualification: 21.8%Copa Sulamericana: 40.1%Relegation: 1.5%7:00 PMGrêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
58%
20%
Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%3:00 PMChapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.4%Relegation: 96.6%
22%
55%
Vitória#12Libertadores: 3.6%Libertadores Qualification: 6.8%Copa Sulamericana: 39.2%Relegation: 17.5%3:00 PMGrêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
47%
23%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-07-26Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%1 - 1Fluminense#4Winner: 1.8%Libertadores: 35.7%Libertadores Qualification: 23.5%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 0.6%
2026-07-17Mirassol#14Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 4.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.1%Relegation: 26.8%2 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-05-30Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%1 - 3Corinthians#9Winner: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.3%Libertadores Qualification: 13.3%Copa Sulamericana: 47.9%Relegation: 7.0%
2026-05-23Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%3 - 2Santos#17Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 26.0%Relegation: 34.7%
2026-05-17Bahia#5Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 22.3%Libertadores Qualification: 20.6%Copa Sulamericana: 44.5%Relegation: 1.8%1 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-05-10Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%0 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-05-02Athletico-PR#3Winner: 5.9%Libertadores: 62.5%Libertadores Qualification: 19.1%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 0.1%0 - 0Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-04-26Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%1 - 0Coritiba#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 8.5%Copa Sulamericana: 44.1%Relegation: 12.6%
2026-04-18Cruzeiro#7Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 16.3%Copa Sulamericana: 48.9%Relegation: 4.0%2 - 0Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-04-11Internacional#15Libertadores: 0.6%Libertadores Qualification: 1.6%Copa Sulamericana: 19.3%Relegation: 44.6%0 - 0Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-04-05Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%0 - 0Remo#19Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 1.2%Copa Sulamericana: 14.8%Relegation: 53.0%
2026-04-02Palmeiras#1Winner: 73.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.1%Copa Sulamericana: 0.2%2 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-03-22Vasco#18Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.2%Copa Sulamericana: 21.1%Relegation: 42.3%2 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-03-19Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%2 - 0Vitória#12Libertadores: 3.6%Libertadores Qualification: 6.8%Copa Sulamericana: 39.2%Relegation: 17.5%
2026-03-16Chapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.4%Relegation: 96.6%1 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-03-12Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%1 - 1Bragantino#6Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.4%Libertadores Qualification: 21.8%Copa Sulamericana: 40.1%Relegation: 1.5%
2026-02-25Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%2 - 1Atlético-MG#10Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 12.4%Libertadores Qualification: 15.2%Copa Sulamericana: 47.0%Relegation: 5.7%
2026-02-11São Paulo#13Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 10.1%Copa Sulamericana: 44.7%Relegation: 11.5%2 - 0Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%
2026-02-04Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%5 - 3Botafogo#8Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 15.9%Libertadores Qualification: 17.2%Copa Sulamericana: 46.9%Relegation: 3.8%
2026-01-28Fluminense#4Winner: 1.8%Libertadores: 35.7%Libertadores Qualification: 23.5%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 0.6%2 - 1Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%