Brasileirão 2026 Relegation Battle
Brasileirão 2026
Every Brasileirão team ranked by their live relegation probability — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Biggest Movers This Round
Relegation Battle — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapecoense | 96.6% |
| 2 | Remo | 53.0% |
| 3 | Internacional | 44.6% |
| 4 | Vasco | 42.3% |
| 5 | Grêmio | 35.9% |
| 6 | Santos | 34.7% |
| 7 | Mirassol | 26.8% |
| 8 | Vitória | 17.5% |
| 9 | Coritiba | 12.6% |
| 10 | São Paulo | 11.5% |
| 11 | Corinthians | 7.0% |
| 12 | Atlético-MG | 5.7% |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 4.0% |
| 14 | Botafogo | 3.8% |
| 15 | Bahia | 1.8% |
| 16 | Bragantino | 1.5% |
| 17 | Fluminense | 0.6% |
| 18 | Athletico-PR | 0.1% |
| 19 | Palmeiras | 0.0% |
| 20 | Flamengo | 0.0% |
Live — updated every 10 minutes during every matchRound 21
About This Race
The bottom four teams in the Brasileirão are relegated. This live model shows which clubs are most at risk as the season unfolds.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the relegation places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.