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Vasco Relegation Chances 2026 — 34.2%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 18 of 38 · Rank #17 · 18 MP

Vasco Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
0.1%
Winner
34.2%
Relegation
#17
Position
DWLLL
Last 5 matches
Vasco are in realistic contention for Relegation at 34.2%, currently ranked 17th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Vasco are 17th in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 18 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 34.2% chance of relegation — with 20 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, Vasco have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, 3 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their relegation probability, Vasco's winner chance currently stands at 0.1%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Vasco's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.1%
  • Libertadores: 2.3%
  • Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%
  • Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%
  • Relegation: 34.2%

Brasileirão 2026 — Competition Races:

Title Race →Relegation Battle →

← View all Brasileirão 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Botafogo Copa Sulamericana ChancesVitória 2026 Season OddsInternacional 2026 Season OddsGrêmio 2026 Season OddsSantos 2026 Season OddsRemo Relegation ChancesMirassol Relegation ChancesChapecoense Relegation Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%3:00 PMVasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
59%
16%
Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%3:00 PMMirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%
37%
36%
Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%3:00 PMVasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
37%
39%
Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%3:00 PMVasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
58%
17%
Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%3:00 PMSantos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%
37%
36%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-05-31Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%0 - 1Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%
2026-05-24Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%0 - 3Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%
2026-05-16Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%4 - 1Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-05-10Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%1 - 0Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%
2026-05-03Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%2 - 2Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-04-26Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%1 - 0Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-04-18Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%2 - 1São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%
2026-04-11Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%1 - 1Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-04-04Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%1 - 2Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%
2026-04-01Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%1 - 1Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-03-22Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%2 - 1Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%
2026-03-18Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%3 - 2Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%
2026-03-15Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%3 - 3Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-03-12Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%2 - 1Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%
2026-02-26Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%2 - 1Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%
2026-02-11Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%0 - 1Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%
2026-02-05Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%1 - 1Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%
2026-01-29Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%2 - 1Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%