Brasileirão 2026 Relegation Battle
Brasileirão 2026
Every Brasileirão team ranked by their live relegation probability — our supercomputer runs up to millions of simulations updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Maiores Variações Nesta Rodada
Relegation Battle — Live Probabilities
| # | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chapecoense | 69.5% |
| 2 | Remo | 48.7% |
| 3 | Mirassol | 43.1% |
| 4 | Corinthians | 34.2% |
| 5 | Santos | 34.1% |
| 6 | Internacional | 23.4% |
| 7 | Grêmio | 22.3% |
| 8 | Vasco | 21.9% |
| 9 | Botafogo | 20.7% |
| 10 | Cruzeiro | 18.6% |
| 11 | Coritiba | 14.2% |
| 12 | Atlético-MG | 13.4% |
| 13 | Vitória | 13.4% |
| 14 | Bragantino | 9.5% |
| 15 | Bahia | 5.3% |
| 16 | Athletico-PR | 3.5% |
| 17 | São Paulo | 2.6% |
| 18 | Fluminense | 1.1% |
| 19 | Flamengo | 0.4% |
| 20 | Palmeiras | 0.0% |
Ao vivo — atualizado a cada 10 minutos durante cada partidaRound 15
Sobre Esta Disputa
The bottom four teams in the Brasileirão are relegated. This live model shows which clubs are most at risk as the season unfolds.
Como Estas Probabilidades São Calculadas
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out every remaining fixture and counts how often each team ends up in the relegation places. The percentages shown reflect those simulated outcomes, updated live every 10 minutes during every match.
Ver tabela completa de Brasileirão 2026 →
Full standings, match results, and all team probability charts.