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São Paulo Libertadores Chances 2026 — 37.1%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 13 of 38 · Rank #4 · 13 MP

São Paulo Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
5.8%
Winner
2.0%
Relegation
#4
Position
DWLLW
Last 5 matches
Explore detailed analysis below ↓

Live — Updated at

São Paulo are 4th in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 13 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 37.1% chance of libertadores — with 25 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, São Paulo have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their libertadores probability, São Paulo's winner chance currently stands at 5.8%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how São Paulo's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 5.8%
  • Libertadores: 37.1%
  • Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%
  • Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%
  • Relegation: 2.0%

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%7:00 PMBahia#6Winner: 4.7%Libertadores: 32.3%Libertadores Qualification: 18.6%Copa Sulamericana: 35.8%Relegation: 3.0%
64%
13%
Corinthians#14Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 5.2%Libertadores Qualification: 6.9%Copa Sulamericana: 34.4%Relegation: 24.2%9:30 PMSão Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
49%
23%
Fluminense#3Winner: 12.6%Libertadores: 56.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.6%Copa Sulamericana: 22.0%Relegation: 0.5%11:30 PMSão Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
38%
35%
São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%8:00 PMBotafogo#8Winner: 1.4%Libertadores: 14.6%Libertadores Qualification: 13.3%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 10.1%
64%
13%
Remo#19Libertadores: 0.4%Libertadores Qualification: 1.0%Copa Sulamericana: 10.7%Relegation: 66.4%3:00 PMSão Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
60%
19%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-04-25São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%1 - 0Mirassol#18Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 2.3%Copa Sulamericana: 18.5%Relegation: 50.8%
2026-04-18Vasco#10Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.4%Libertadores Qualification: 8.9%Copa Sulamericana: 38.2%Relegation: 18.3%2 - 1São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-04-11Vitória#13Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 8.4%Libertadores Qualification: 9.3%Copa Sulamericana: 37.9%Relegation: 18.0%2 - 0São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-04-04São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%4 - 1Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.2%Libertadores Qualification: 8.6%Copa Sulamericana: 37.9%Relegation: 18.9%
2026-04-01Internacional#16Winner: 0.2%Libertadores: 4.0%Libertadores Qualification: 5.6%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 28.8%1 - 1São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-03-21São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%0 - 1Palmeiras#1Winner: 46.3%Libertadores: 86.9%Libertadores Qualification: 7.6%Copa Sulamericana: 5.2%
2026-03-18Atlético-MG#15Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 4.3%Libertadores Qualification: 6.0%Copa Sulamericana: 32.1%Relegation: 27.6%1 - 0São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-03-15Bragantino#9Winner: 0.8%Libertadores: 10.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.9%Copa Sulamericana: 40.9%Relegation: 13.9%1 - 2São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-03-12São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%2 - 0Chapecoense#20Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 1.6%Copa Sulamericana: 14.5%Relegation: 58.7%
2026-02-25Coritiba#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 16.0%Libertadores Qualification: 14.2%Copa Sulamericana: 42.3%Relegation: 8.3%0 - 1São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-02-11São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%2 - 0Grêmio#12Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 7.4%Libertadores Qualification: 8.7%Copa Sulamericana: 38.3%Relegation: 18.3%
2026-02-04Santos#17Winner: 0.2%Libertadores: 3.9%Libertadores Qualification: 5.6%Copa Sulamericana: 31.2%Relegation: 29.0%1 - 1São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%
2026-01-28São Paulo#4Winner: 5.8%Libertadores: 37.1%Libertadores Qualification: 19.2%Copa Sulamericana: 33.5%Relegation: 2.0%2 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 64.4%Libertadores Qualification: 15.5%Copa Sulamericana: 17.4%Relegation: 0.3%