Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?

Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 63%. With 20 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?

Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 90%, followed by Mirassol at 52%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.

How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?

Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.

How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?

Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Brasileirão 2026 — Round 18 of 38

Updated at 6/1/26, 2:06 AM

Probability of winning the championship

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%	62.8%
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	18.7%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	5.5%
4	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	4.2%
5	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	3.2%
6	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	1.6%
7	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	1.0%
8	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	0.7%
9	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	0.4%
10	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	0.4%
11	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	0.4%
12	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	0.4%
13	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	0.4%
14	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	0.1%
15	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	0.1%
16	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	0.1%
17	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	0.1%

Probability of access to Libertadores group phase

#	Team	%
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%	95.4%
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	75.3%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	46.4%
4	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	40.4%
5	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	34.6%
6	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	22.4%
7	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	15.7%
8	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	12.8%
9	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	9.7%
10	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	8.7%
11	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	8.5%
12	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	8.1%
13	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	7.8%
14	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	3.2%
15	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	3.2%
16	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	3.2%
17	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	2.3%
18	Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%	1.0%
19	Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%	0.9%

Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase

#	Team	%
1	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	20.5%
2	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	20.2%
3	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	20.1%
4	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	17.7%
5	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	15.3%
6	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	13.6%
7	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	12.7%
8	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	11.5%
9	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	10.7%
10	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	10.5%
11	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	10.0%
12	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	9.6%
13	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	5.4%
14	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	5.4%
15	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	5.3%
16	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	4.1%
17	Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%	3.2%
18	Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%	2.1%
19	Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%	2.0%
20	Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%	0.1%

Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana

#	Team	%
1	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	43.9%
2	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	43.6%
3	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	42.4%
4	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	41.8%
5	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	41.4%
6	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	41.2%
7	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	40.2%
8	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	39.4%
9	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	35.1%
10	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	31.8%
11	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	31.5%
12	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	31.5%
13	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	31.4%
14	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	27.8%
15	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	27.2%
16	Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%	18.4%
17	Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%	17.1%
18	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	10.9%
19	Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%	2.1%
20	Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%	1.3%

Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship

#	Team	%
1	Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%	90.0%
2	Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%	52.0%
3	Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%	49.3%
4	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	34.2%
5	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	27.9%
6	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	27.7%
7	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	27.3%
8	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	15.8%
9	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	15.1%
10	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	13.2%
11	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	13.0%
12	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	11.6%
13	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	8.5%
14	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	6.4%
15	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	4.3%
16	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	1.7%
17	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	1.1%
18	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	0.7%
19	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	0.1%

Round 18 of 38

Standings

#	Team	MP	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Title	Lib	LQ	Sul	Rel
1	Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%	18	41	12	5	1	30	13	17	63%	95%	3%	1%	—
2	Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%	17	34	10	4	3	31	16	15	19%	75%	13%	11%	0%
3	Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%	18	31	9	4	5	28	23	5	6%	46%	20%	28%	1%
4	Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%	18	30	9	3	6	24	18	6	4%	40%	21%	32%	1%
5	Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%	18	29	9	2	7	25	19	6	3%	35%	20%	35%	2%
6	Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%	18	26	7	5	6	24	24	0	1%	16%	15%	44%	6%
7↑2	Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%	17	26	7	5	5	25	23	2	2%	22%	18%	41%	4%
8↓1	São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%	18	25	7	4	7	23	20	3	1%	13%	14%	44%	9%
9↑3	Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%	18	24	7	3	8	22	23	-1	0%	10%	12%	42%	12%
10↑5	Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%	18	24	6	6	6	18	19	-1	0%	9%	11%	42%	13%
11↓3	Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%	18	24	6	6	6	24	28	-4	0%	9%	11%	41%	13%
12↓2	Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%	17	22	6	4	7	31	31	0	0%	8%	10%	40%	15%
13↓2	Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%	17	22	6	4	7	21	25	-4	0%	8%	10%	39%	16%
14↓1	Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%	18	21	5	6	7	21	22	-1	0%	3%	5%	32%	27%
15↓1	Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%	18	21	5	6	7	20	23	-3	0%	3%	5%	31%	28%
16↑1	Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%	18	21	5	6	7	26	29	-3	0%	3%	5%	32%	28%
17↓1	Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%	18	20	5	5	8	22	29	-7	0%	2%	4%	27%	34%
18↑1	Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%	18	18	4	6	8	21	29	-8	—	1%	2%	18%	49%
19↓1	Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%	17	16	4	4	9	18	24	-6	—	1%	2%	17%	52%
20	Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%	17	9	1	6	10	17	33	-16	—	—	0%	2%	90%

WinnerLibertadoresLibertadores QualificationCopa SulamericanaRelegation

After Round 18: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?

↑Fluminense's Libertadores probability climbed from 14.7% to 46.4% (+31.7%).
↓Athletico-PR's Libertadores probability dropped from 65.5% to 40.4% (-25.1%).
↓Mirassol's Relegation probability dropped from 75.6% to 52% (-23.6%).
↑Bragantino's Libertadores probability climbed from 14% to 34.6% (+20.6%).
↓Botafogo's Relegation probability dropped from 34.6% to 15.1% (-19.5%).

Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Jul 22

Fluminense#3Winner: 5.5%Libertadores: 46.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.2%Copa Sulamericana: 27.8%Relegation: 0.7%

3:00 PM

Bragantino#5Winner: 3.2%Libertadores: 34.6%Libertadores Qualification: 20.1%Copa Sulamericana: 35.1%Relegation: 1.7%

32%

41%

Corinthians#10Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.7%Libertadores Qualification: 10.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.8%Relegation: 13.0%

3:00 PM

Remo#18Libertadores: 1.0%Libertadores Qualification: 2.1%Copa Sulamericana: 18.4%Relegation: 49.3%

49%

24%

Internacional#14Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.8%Relegation: 27.3%

3:00 PM

Cruzeiro#11Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.5%Libertadores Qualification: 10.5%Copa Sulamericana: 41.4%Relegation: 13.2%

40%

33%

Vitória#13Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 7.8%Libertadores Qualification: 9.6%Copa Sulamericana: 39.4%Relegation: 15.8%

3:00 PM

Vasco#17Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 2.3%Libertadores Qualification: 4.1%Copa Sulamericana: 27.2%Relegation: 34.2%

59%

16%

Botafogo#12Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 8.1%Libertadores Qualification: 10.0%Copa Sulamericana: 40.2%Relegation: 15.1%

3:00 PM

Santos#16Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 27.7%

27%

50%

São Paulo#8Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 12.8%Libertadores Qualification: 13.6%Copa Sulamericana: 43.6%Relegation: 8.5%

3:00 PM

Athletico-PR#4Winner: 4.2%Libertadores: 40.4%Libertadores Qualification: 20.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.5%Relegation: 1.1%

53%

22%

Mirassol#19Libertadores: 0.9%Libertadores Qualification: 2.0%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 52.0%

3:00 PM

Grêmio#15Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 3.2%Libertadores Qualification: 5.3%Copa Sulamericana: 31.4%Relegation: 27.9%

25%

50%

Atlético-MG#9Winner: 0.4%Libertadores: 9.7%Libertadores Qualification: 11.5%Copa Sulamericana: 42.4%Relegation: 11.6%

3:00 PM

Bahia#7Winner: 1.6%Libertadores: 22.4%Libertadores Qualification: 17.7%Copa Sulamericana: 41.2%Relegation: 4.3%

50%

24%

Coritiba#6Winner: 1.0%Libertadores: 15.7%Libertadores Qualification: 15.3%Copa Sulamericana: 43.9%Relegation: 6.4%

3:00 PM

Palmeiras#1Winner: 62.8%Libertadores: 95.4%Libertadores Qualification: 3.2%Copa Sulamericana: 1.3%

49%

27%

Chapecoense#20Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%Copa Sulamericana: 2.1%Relegation: 90.0%

3:00 PM

Flamengo#2Winner: 18.7%Libertadores: 75.3%Libertadores Qualification: 12.7%Copa Sulamericana: 10.9%Relegation: 0.1%

37%

39%

Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook

Winner:

Palmeiras Winner Chances (62.8%)Flamengo Winner Chances (18.7%)Fluminense Winner Chances (5.5%)Athletico-PR Winner Chances (4.2%)Bragantino Winner Chances (3.2%)Bahia Winner Chances (1.6%)

Libertadores:

Palmeiras Libertadores Chances (95.4%)Flamengo Libertadores Chances (75.3%)Fluminense Libertadores Chances (46.4%)Athletico-PR Libertadores Chances (40.4%)Bragantino Libertadores Chances (34.6%)Bahia Libertadores Chances (22.4%)

Libertadores Qualification:

Athletico-PR Libertadores Qualification Chances (20.5%)Fluminense Libertadores Qualification Chances (20.2%)Bragantino Libertadores Qualification Chances (20.1%)Bahia Libertadores Qualification Chances (17.7%)Coritiba Libertadores Qualification Chances (15.3%)São Paulo Libertadores Qualification Chances (13.6%)

Copa Sulamericana:

Coritiba Copa Sulamericana Chances (43.9%)São Paulo Copa Sulamericana Chances (43.6%)Atlético-MG Copa Sulamericana Chances (42.4%)Corinthians Copa Sulamericana Chances (41.8%)Cruzeiro Copa Sulamericana Chances (41.4%)Bahia Copa Sulamericana Chances (41.2%)

Relegation:

Chapecoense Relegation Chances (90.0%)Mirassol Relegation Chances (52.0%)Remo Relegation Chances (49.3%)Vasco Relegation Chances (34.2%)Grêmio Relegation Chances (27.9%)Santos Relegation Chances (27.7%)

Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?: Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Palmeiras currently have the highest title probability at 63%. With 20 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?: Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 90%, followed by Mirassol at 52%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?: Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?: Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.

Past editions