Brasileirão 2026 — Round 28 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 71.1% |
| 2 |  Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8% | 27.0% |
| 3 |  Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Pre-Libertadores: 24.5%Sulamericana: 6.0% | 1.2% |
| 4 |  Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 55.5%Pre-Libertadores: 32.6%Sulamericana: 11.8% | 0.5% |
| 5 |  Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 32.0%Pre-Libertadores: 41.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 0.2% |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Pre-Libertadores: 40.5%Sulamericana: 31.0% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores group phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 99.9% |
| 2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8% | 99.2% |
| 3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Pre-Libertadores: 24.5%Sulamericana: 6.0% | 69.5% |
| 4 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 55.5%Pre-Libertadores: 32.6%Sulamericana: 11.8% | 55.5% |
| 5 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 32.0%Pre-Libertadores: 41.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 32.0% |
| 6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Pre-Libertadores: 40.5%Sulamericana: 31.0% | 28.3% |
| 7 |  Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Pre-Libertadores: 23.4%Sulamericana: 63.8%Releg: 0.1% | 8.2% |
| 8 |  Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Pre-Libertadores: 12.4%Sulamericana: 72.2%Releg: 0.4% | 3.0% |
| 9 |  São Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Pre-Libertadores: 6.9%Sulamericana: 68.7%Releg: 1.7% | 1.4% |
| 10 |  Coritiba#8Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.2%Sulamericana: 71.7%Releg: 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 11 |  Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.0%Sulamericana: 69.5%Releg: 1.7% | 1.3% |
| 12 |  Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.9%Sulamericana: 51.7%Releg: 6.1% | 0.2% |
| 13 |  Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.7%Sulamericana: 34.4%Releg: 14.8% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Libertadores qualification phase
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 32.0%Pre-Libertadores: 41.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 41.0% |
| 2 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Pre-Libertadores: 40.5%Sulamericana: 31.0% | 40.5% |
| 3 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 55.5%Pre-Libertadores: 32.6%Sulamericana: 11.8% | 32.6% |
| 4 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Pre-Libertadores: 24.5%Sulamericana: 6.0% | 24.5% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Pre-Libertadores: 23.4%Sulamericana: 63.8%Releg: 0.1% | 23.4% |
| 6 | Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Pre-Libertadores: 12.4%Sulamericana: 72.2%Releg: 0.4% | 12.4% |
| 7 | Coritiba#8Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.2%Sulamericana: 71.7%Releg: 1.0% | 7.2% |
| 8 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.0%Sulamericana: 69.5%Releg: 1.7% | 7.0% |
| 9 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Pre-Libertadores: 6.9%Sulamericana: 68.7%Releg: 1.7% | 6.9% |
| 10 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.9%Sulamericana: 51.7%Releg: 6.1% | 1.9% |
| 11 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 12 | Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.7%Sulamericana: 34.4%Releg: 14.8% | 0.7% |
| 13 |  Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 28.7%Releg: 20.2% | 0.5% |
| 14 |  Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 23.6%Releg: 24.0% | 0.3% |
| 15 |  Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 26.5%Releg: 21.8% | 0.3% |
| 16 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Probability of access to Copa Sulamericana
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Pre-Libertadores: 12.4%Sulamericana: 72.2%Releg: 0.4% | 72.2% |
| 2 | Coritiba#8Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.2%Sulamericana: 71.7%Releg: 1.0% | 71.7% |
| 3 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.0%Sulamericana: 69.5%Releg: 1.7% | 69.5% |
| 4 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Pre-Libertadores: 6.9%Sulamericana: 68.7%Releg: 1.7% | 68.7% |
| 5 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Pre-Libertadores: 23.4%Sulamericana: 63.8%Releg: 0.1% | 63.8% |
| 6 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.9%Sulamericana: 51.7%Releg: 6.1% | 51.7% |
| 7 | Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.7%Sulamericana: 34.4%Releg: 14.8% | 34.4% |
| 8 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Pre-Libertadores: 40.5%Sulamericana: 31.0% | 31.0% |
| 9 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 28.7%Releg: 20.2% | 28.7% |
| 10 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 32.0%Pre-Libertadores: 41.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 26.8% |
| 11 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 26.5%Releg: 21.8% | 26.5% |
| 12 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 23.6%Releg: 24.0% | 23.6% |
| 13 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 55.5%Pre-Libertadores: 32.6%Sulamericana: 11.8% | 11.8% |
| 14 |  Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.0%Releg: 52.1% | 8.0% |
| 15 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Pre-Libertadores: 24.5%Sulamericana: 6.0% | 6.0% |
| 16 |  Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.2%Releg: 63.4% | 5.2% |
| 17 |  Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.7% | 0.3% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.0% | 99.0% |
| 2 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.7% | 93.7% |
| 3 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.2%Releg: 63.4% | 63.4% |
| 4 | Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.0%Releg: 52.1% | 52.1% |
| 5 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 23.6%Releg: 24.0% | 24.0% |
| 6 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 26.5%Releg: 21.8% | 21.8% |
| 7 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 28.7%Releg: 20.2% | 20.2% |
| 8 | Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.7%Sulamericana: 34.4%Releg: 14.8% | 14.8% |
| 9 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.9%Sulamericana: 51.7%Releg: 6.1% | 6.1% |
| 10 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Pre-Libertadores: 6.9%Sulamericana: 68.7%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 11 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.0%Sulamericana: 69.5%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 12 | Coritiba#8Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.2%Sulamericana: 71.7%Releg: 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 13 | Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Pre-Libertadores: 12.4%Sulamericana: 72.2%Releg: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 14 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Pre-Libertadores: 23.4%Sulamericana: 63.8%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 28 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Lib | LQ | Sul | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Flamengo#1Win: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Pre-Libertadores: 0.1% | 28 | 60 | 71% | 100% | 0% | — | — |
2 | Palmeiras#2Win: 27.0%Libertadores: 99.2%Pre-Libertadores: 0.8% | 28 | 57 | 27% | 99% | 1% | — | — |
3 | Athletico-PR#3Win: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Pre-Libertadores: 24.5%Sulamericana: 6.0% | 28 | 49 | 1% | 70% | 25% | 6% | — |
4↑1 | Fluminense#4Win: 0.5%Libertadores: 55.5%Pre-Libertadores: 32.6%Sulamericana: 11.8% | 28 | 48 | 1% | 56% | 33% | 12% | — |
5↓1 | Bahia#5Win: 0.2%Libertadores: 32.0%Pre-Libertadores: 41.0%Sulamericana: 26.8% | 28 | 46 | 0% | 32% | 41% | 27% | — |
6 | Cruzeiro#6Win: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Pre-Libertadores: 40.5%Sulamericana: 31.0% | 28 | 45 | 0% | 28% | 41% | 31% | — |
7 | Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Pre-Libertadores: 23.4%Sulamericana: 63.8%Releg: 0.1% | 27 | 40 | — | 8% | 23% | 64% | 0% |
8 | Coritiba#8Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.2%Sulamericana: 71.7%Releg: 1.0% | 28 | 38 | — | 1% | 7% | 72% | 1% |
9↑2 | Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Pre-Libertadores: 12.4%Sulamericana: 72.2%Releg: 0.4% | 27 | 38 | — | 3% | 12% | 72% | 0% |
10↑3 | São Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Pre-Libertadores: 6.9%Sulamericana: 68.7%Releg: 1.7% | 27 | 36 | — | 1% | 7% | 69% | 2% |
11↓2 | Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Pre-Libertadores: 7.0%Sulamericana: 69.5%Releg: 1.7% | 27 | 36 | — | 1% | 7% | 70% | 2% |
12↓2 | Botafogo#12Libertadores: 0.2%Pre-Libertadores: 1.9%Sulamericana: 51.7%Releg: 6.1% | 28 | 35 | — | 0% | 2% | 52% | 6% |
13↓1 | Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Pre-Libertadores: 0.7%Sulamericana: 34.4%Releg: 14.8% | 28 | 33 | — | 0% | 1% | 34% | 15% |
14↑1 | Mirassol#14Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 23.6%Releg: 24.0% | 28 | 32 | — | — | 0% | 24% | 24% |
15↓1 | Corinthians#15Pre-Libertadores: 0.3%Sulamericana: 26.5%Releg: 21.8% | 28 | 32 | — | — | 0% | 27% | 22% |
16 | Vasco#16Pre-Libertadores: 0.5%Sulamericana: 28.7%Releg: 20.2% | 27 | 31 | — | — | 1% | 29% | 20% |
17 | Grêmio#17Sulamericana: 8.0%Releg: 52.1% | 28 | 29 | — | — | — | 8% | 52% |
18 | Internacional#18Sulamericana: 5.2%Releg: 63.4% | 28 | 28 | — | — | — | 5% | 63% |
19 | Remo#19Sulamericana: 0.3%Releg: 93.7% | 28 | 23 | — | — | — | 0% | 94% |
20 | Chapecoense#20Releg: 99.0% | 27 | 18 | — | — | — | — | 99% |
WinLibertadoresPre-LibertadoresSulamericanaReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Atlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Libertadores Qualification: 23.4%Copa Sulamericana: 63.8%Relegation: 0.1%9:30 PMBragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.0%Copa Sulamericana: 69.5%Relegation: 1.7%
9:30 PMBragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.0%Copa Sulamericana: 69.5%Relegation: 1.7%55%
21%
Remo#19Copa Sulamericana: 0.3%Relegation: 93.7%10:30 PMGrêmio#17Copa Sulamericana: 8.0%Relegation: 52.1%
10:30 PMGrêmio#17Copa Sulamericana: 8.0%Relegation: 52.1%23%
49%
Bragantino#11Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 7.0%Copa Sulamericana: 69.5%Relegation: 1.7%10:30 PMMirassol#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 23.6%Relegation: 24.0%
10:30 PMMirassol#14Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 23.6%Relegation: 24.0%32%
41%
Internacional#18Copa Sulamericana: 5.2%Relegation: 63.4%10:30 PMCorinthians#15Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 26.5%Relegation: 21.8%
10:30 PMCorinthians#15Libertadores Qualification: 0.3%Copa Sulamericana: 26.5%Relegation: 21.8%40%
29%
Vitória#13Libertadores: 0.1%Libertadores Qualification: 0.7%Copa Sulamericana: 34.4%Relegation: 14.8%11:00 PMChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.0%
11:00 PMChapecoense#20Relegation: 99.0%39%
32%
Cruzeiro#6Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 28.3%Libertadores Qualification: 40.5%Copa Sulamericana: 31.0%12:30 AMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Libertadores Qualification: 6.9%Copa Sulamericana: 68.7%Relegation: 1.7%
12:30 AMSão Paulo#10Libertadores: 1.4%Libertadores Qualification: 6.9%Copa Sulamericana: 68.7%Relegation: 1.7%56%
18%
Santos#9Libertadores: 3.0%Libertadores Qualification: 12.4%Copa Sulamericana: 72.2%Relegation: 0.4%10:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%
10:30 PMFlamengo#1Winner: 71.1%Libertadores: 99.9%Libertadores Qualification: 0.1%43%
30%
Athletico-PR#3Winner: 1.2%Libertadores: 69.5%Libertadores Qualification: 24.5%Copa Sulamericana: 6.0%11:00 PMAtlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Libertadores Qualification: 23.4%Copa Sulamericana: 63.8%Relegation: 0.1%
11:00 PMAtlético-MG#7Libertadores: 8.2%Libertadores Qualification: 23.4%Copa Sulamericana: 63.8%Relegation: 0.1%53%
20%
After Round 28: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Coritiba's Sulamericana probability climbed from 39.6% to 71.7% (+32.1%).
- ↑Grêmio's Releg probability climbed from 35.2% to 52.1% (+16.9%).
- ↓Internacional's Releg probability dropped from 79.7% to 63.4% (-16.3%).
- ↓Vitória's Sulamericana probability dropped from 47.1% to 34.4% (-12.7%).
- ↓Cruzeiro's Sulamericana probability dropped from 42% to 31% (-11%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileirão 2026 — Season Outlook
Win:
Libertadores:
Pre-Libertadores:
Sulamericana:
Brasileirão 2026 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileirão 2026?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Flamengo currently have the highest title probability at 71%. With 10 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileirão 2026?
- Chapecoense currently faces the highest relegation risk at 99%, followed by Remo at 94%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileirão 2026 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileirão 2026 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
Past editions