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Flamengo Libertadores Chances 2026 — 81.4%

Brasileirão 2026 · Round 21 of 38 · Rank #2 · 20 MP

Flamengo Brasileirão 2026 — Key Insights
15.1%
Winner
0.0%
Relegation
#2
Position
LWWDD
Last 5 matches
Flamengo are the clear favourites for Libertadores at 81.4%, currently ranked 2nd — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Flamengo are 2nd in the Brasileirão 2026 2026 season after 20 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 81.4% chance of libertadores — with 17 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 Brasileirão 2026 matches, Flamengo have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their libertadores probability, Flamengo's winner chance currently stands at 15.1%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Brasileirão 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Flamengo's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 15.1%
  • Libertadores: 81.4%
  • Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%
  • Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
  • Relegation: 0.0%Since 2026-07-22

Brasileirão 2026 — Competition Races:

Title Race →Relegation Battle →

← View all Brasileirão 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Palmeiras Winner ChancesAthletico-PR Libertadores ChancesFluminense Libertadores ChancesBahia Libertadores Qualification ChancesBragantino Libertadores Qualification ChancesCruzeiro Copa Sulamericana Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%10:30 PMVitória#12Libertadores: 3.6%Libertadores Qualification: 6.8%Copa Sulamericana: 39.2%Relegation: 17.5%
56%
20%
Mirassol#14Libertadores: 2.2%Libertadores Qualification: 4.4%Copa Sulamericana: 31.1%Relegation: 26.8%9:30 PMFlamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
37%
34%
Cruzeiro#7Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 16.3%Copa Sulamericana: 48.9%Relegation: 4.0%11:30 PMFlamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
24%
51%
Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%3:00 PMBotafogo#8Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 15.9%Libertadores Qualification: 17.2%Copa Sulamericana: 46.9%Relegation: 3.8%
56%
20%
Remo#19Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 1.2%Copa Sulamericana: 14.8%Relegation: 53.0%3:00 PMFlamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
37%
33%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-07-29Internacional#15Libertadores: 0.6%Libertadores Qualification: 1.6%Copa Sulamericana: 19.3%Relegation: 44.6%1 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-07-26Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%1 - 1São Paulo#13Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 10.1%Copa Sulamericana: 44.7%Relegation: 11.5%
2026-07-22Chapecoense#20Copa Sulamericana: 0.4%Relegation: 96.6%0 - 4Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-05-30Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%3 - 0Coritiba#11Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 4.8%Libertadores Qualification: 8.5%Copa Sulamericana: 44.1%Relegation: 12.6%
2026-05-23Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%0 - 3Palmeiras#1Winner: 73.9%Libertadores: 98.7%Libertadores Qualification: 1.1%Copa Sulamericana: 0.2%
2026-05-17Athletico-PR#3Winner: 5.9%Libertadores: 62.5%Libertadores Qualification: 19.1%Copa Sulamericana: 17.1%Relegation: 0.1%1 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-05-10Grêmio#16Libertadores: 1.2%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 25.0%Relegation: 35.9%0 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-05-03Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%2 - 2Vasco#18Libertadores: 0.8%Libertadores Qualification: 2.2%Copa Sulamericana: 21.1%Relegation: 42.3%
2026-04-26Atlético-MG#10Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 12.4%Libertadores Qualification: 15.2%Copa Sulamericana: 47.0%Relegation: 5.7%0 - 4Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-04-19Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%2 - 0Bahia#5Winner: 0.7%Libertadores: 22.3%Libertadores Qualification: 20.6%Copa Sulamericana: 44.5%Relegation: 1.8%
2026-04-12Fluminense#4Winner: 1.8%Libertadores: 35.7%Libertadores Qualification: 23.5%Copa Sulamericana: 34.6%Relegation: 0.6%1 - 2Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-04-05Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%3 - 1Santos#17Libertadores: 1.3%Libertadores Qualification: 3.0%Copa Sulamericana: 26.0%Relegation: 34.7%
2026-04-02Bragantino#6Winner: 1.1%Libertadores: 27.4%Libertadores Qualification: 21.8%Copa Sulamericana: 40.1%Relegation: 1.5%3 - 0Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-03-22Corinthians#9Winner: 0.2%Libertadores: 9.3%Libertadores Qualification: 13.3%Copa Sulamericana: 47.9%Relegation: 7.0%1 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-03-19Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%3 - 0Remo#19Libertadores: 0.3%Libertadores Qualification: 1.2%Copa Sulamericana: 14.8%Relegation: 53.0%
2026-03-14Botafogo#8Winner: 0.5%Libertadores: 15.9%Libertadores Qualification: 17.2%Copa Sulamericana: 46.9%Relegation: 3.8%0 - 3Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-03-11Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%2 - 0Cruzeiro#7Winner: 0.3%Libertadores: 13.2%Libertadores Qualification: 16.3%Copa Sulamericana: 48.9%Relegation: 4.0%
2026-02-10Vitória#12Libertadores: 3.6%Libertadores Qualification: 6.8%Copa Sulamericana: 39.2%Relegation: 17.5%1 - 2Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%
2026-02-04Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%1 - 1Internacional#15Libertadores: 0.6%Libertadores Qualification: 1.6%Copa Sulamericana: 19.3%Relegation: 44.6%
2026-01-28São Paulo#13Winner: 0.1%Libertadores: 6.4%Libertadores Qualification: 10.1%Copa Sulamericana: 44.7%Relegation: 11.5%2 - 1Flamengo#2Winner: 15.1%Libertadores: 81.4%Libertadores Qualification: 11.2%Copa Sulamericana: 7.2%