Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 7 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4% | 12.9% |
| 2 |  São Bernardo#2Winner: 10.8%Promotion: 36.0%Relegation: 6.9% | 10.8% |
| 3 |  Sport#3Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 34.5%Relegation: 7.4% | 10.1% |
| 4 |  Vila Nova#4Winner: 10.0%Promotion: 34.2%Relegation: 7.4% | 10.0% |
| 5 |  Operário-PR#5Winner: 8.1%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 9.4% | 8.1% |
| 6 |  Criciúma#6Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 11.8% | 6.3% |
| 7 |  Juventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0% | 6.2% |
| 8 |  Náutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0% | 4.9% |
| 9 |  Ceará#9Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 15.7% | 4.5% |
| 10 |  Novorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9% | 3.6% |
| 11 |  Botafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7% | 3.6% |
| 12 |  Avaí#11Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.8% | 3.5% |
| 13 |  Athletic Club#13Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 16.7%Relegation: 19.1% | 3.5% |
| 14 |  Atlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9% | 2.7% |
| 15 |  Cuiabá#15Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 12.9%Relegation: 24.2% | 2.5% |
| 16 |  Ponte Preta#16Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.4% | 2.1% |
| 17 |  Goiás#17Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.6% | 2.1% |
| 18 |  CRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9% | 1.1% |
| 19 |  Londrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0% | 1.1% |
| 20 |  América-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4% | 0.4% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4% | 40.4% |
| 2 | São Bernardo#2Winner: 10.8%Promotion: 36.0%Relegation: 6.9% | 36.0% |
| 3 | Sport#3Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 34.5%Relegation: 7.4% | 34.5% |
| 4 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 10.0%Promotion: 34.2%Relegation: 7.4% | 34.2% |
| 5 | Operário-PR#5Winner: 8.1%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 9.4% | 29.9% |
| 6 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 11.8% | 25.4% |
| 7 | Juventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0% | 25.0% |
| 8 | Náutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0% | 21.0% |
| 9 | Ceará#9Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 15.7% | 20.1% |
| 10 | Botafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7% | 17.2% |
| 11 | Novorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9% | 17.0% |
| 12 | Avaí#11Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.8% | 17.0% |
| 13 | Athletic Club#13Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 16.7%Relegation: 19.1% | 16.7% |
| 14 | Atlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9% | 13.9% |
| 15 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 12.9%Relegation: 24.2% | 12.9% |
| 16 | Ponte Preta#16Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.4% | 11.2% |
| 17 | Goiás#17Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.6% | 11.2% |
| 18 | CRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9% | 6.8% |
| 19 | Londrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0% | 6.8% |
| 20 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4% | 3.0% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4% | 55.4% |
| 2 | Londrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0% | 38.0% |
| 3 | CRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9% | 37.9% |
| 4 | Goiás#17Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.6% | 27.6% |
| 5 | Ponte Preta#16Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.4% | 27.4% |
| 6 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 12.9%Relegation: 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 7 | Atlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9% | 22.9% |
| 8 | Athletic Club#13Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 16.7%Relegation: 19.1% | 19.1% |
| 9 | Novorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9% | 18.9% |
| 10 | Avaí#11Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.8% | 18.8% |
| 11 | Botafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7% | 18.7% |
| 12 | Ceará#9Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 15.7% | 15.7% |
| 13 | Náutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0% | 15.0% |
| 14 | Juventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0% | 12.0% |
| 15 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 11.8% | 11.8% |
| 16 | Operário-PR#5Winner: 8.1%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 9.4% | 9.4% |
| 17 | Sport#3Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 34.5%Relegation: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 18 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 10.0%Promotion: 34.2%Relegation: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 19 | São Bernardo#2Winner: 10.8%Promotion: 36.0%Relegation: 6.9% | 6.9% |
| 20 | Fortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4% | 5.4% |
Round 7 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Fortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4% | 7 | 14 | 13% | 40% | 5% |
2↑1 | São Bernardo#2Winner: 10.8%Promotion: 36.0%Relegation: 6.9% | 7 | 13 | 11% | 36% | 7% |
3↑4 | Sport#3Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 34.5%Relegation: 7.4% | 7 | 13 | 10% | 35% | 7% |
4↓3 | Vila Nova#4Winner: 10.0%Promotion: 34.2%Relegation: 7.4% | 7 | 13 | 10% | 34% | 7% |
5↑4 | Operário-PR#5Winner: 8.1%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 9.4% | 7 | 12 | 8% | 30% | 9% |
6↓2 | Criciúma#6Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 11.8% | 7 | 11 | 6% | 25% | 12% |
7↓2 | Juventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0% | 7 | 11 | 6% | 25% | 12% |
8 | Náutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0% | 7 | 10 | 5% | 21% | 15% |
9↓3 | Ceará#9Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 15.7% | 7 | 10 | 5% | 20% | 16% |
10 | Novorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9% | 7 | 9 | 4% | 17% | 19% |
11↑1 | Avaí#11Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.8% | 7 | 9 | 4% | 17% | 19% |
12↓1 | Botafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7% | 7 | 9 | 4% | 17% | 19% |
13 | Athletic Club#13Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 16.7%Relegation: 19.1% | 7 | 9 | 4% | 17% | 19% |
14 | Atlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9% | 7 | 8 | 3% | 14% | 23% |
15↑2 | Cuiabá#15Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 12.9%Relegation: 24.2% | 7 | 8 | 3% | 13% | 24% |
16↓1 | Ponte Preta#16Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.4% | 7 | 7 | 2% | 11% | 27% |
17↓1 | Goiás#17Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.6% | 7 | 7 | 2% | 11% | 28% |
18↑1 | CRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9% | 7 | 5 | 1% | 7% | 38% |
19↓1 | Londrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0% | 7 | 5 | 1% | 7% | 38% |
20 | América-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4% | 7 | 2 | 0% | 3% | 55% |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
After Round 7: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Operário-PR's Promotion probability dropped from 73.1% to 29.9% (-43.2%).
- ↓Sport's Promotion probability dropped from 66.9% to 34.5% (-32.4%).
- ↓Náutico's Relegation probability dropped from 47.3% to 15% (-32.3%).
- ↓América-MG's Relegation probability dropped from 86.1% to 55.4% (-30.7%).
- ↓CRB's Relegation probability dropped from 64.5% to 37.9% (-26.6%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Sport#3Winner: 10.1%Promotion: 34.5%Relegation: 7.4%3:00 PMCRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9%
3:00 PMCRB#18Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 37.9%62%
16%
Cuiabá#15Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 12.9%Relegation: 24.2%3:00 PMNovorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9%
3:00 PMNovorizontino#10Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.0%Relegation: 18.9%34%
31%
Athletic Club#13Winner: 3.5%Promotion: 16.7%Relegation: 19.1%3:00 PMJuventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0%
3:00 PMJuventude#7Winner: 6.2%Promotion: 25.0%Relegation: 12.0%45%
28%
Ceará#9Winner: 4.5%Promotion: 20.1%Relegation: 15.7%3:00 PMFortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4%
3:00 PMFortaleza#1Winner: 12.9%Promotion: 40.4%Relegation: 5.4%51%
24%
Criciúma#6Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 25.4%Relegation: 11.8%3:00 PMAtlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9%
3:00 PMAtlético-GO#14Winner: 2.7%Promotion: 13.9%Relegation: 22.9%41%
31%
Goiás#17Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.6%3:00 PMBotafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7%
3:00 PMBotafogo-SP#12Winner: 3.6%Promotion: 17.2%Relegation: 18.7%41%
33%
Ponte Preta#16Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 11.2%Relegation: 27.4%3:00 PMLondrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0%
3:00 PMLondrina#19Winner: 1.1%Promotion: 6.8%Relegation: 38.0%35%
32%
São Bernardo#2Winner: 10.8%Promotion: 36.0%Relegation: 6.9%3:00 PMAmérica-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4%
3:00 PMAmérica-MG#20Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 55.4%43%
30%
Operário-PR#5Winner: 8.1%Promotion: 29.9%Relegation: 9.4%3:00 PMNáutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0%
3:00 PMNáutico#8Winner: 4.9%Promotion: 21.0%Relegation: 15.0%63%
12%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Winner:
Promotion:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Fortaleza currently have the highest title probability at 13%. With 31 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 55%, followed by Londrina at 38%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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