Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 16 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4% | 18.5% |
| 2 |  Criciúma#2Winner: 17.8%Promotion: 54.5%Relegation: 0.4% | 17.8% |
| 3 |  Vila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6% | 16.3% |
| 4 |  Fortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 11.1% |
| 5 |  São Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2% | 7.5% |
| 6 |  Operário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 7 |  Juventude#5Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 29.7%Relegation: 2.4% | 6.3% |
| 8 |  Sport#8Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 4.1% |
| 9 |  Goiás#9Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 19.5%Relegation: 5.0% | 3.3% |
| 10 |  Athletic Club#11Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 7.4% | 2.5% |
| 11 |  Cuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8% | 2.0% |
| 12 |  Náutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3% | 1.2% |
| 13 |  Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 8.3%Relegation: 13.5% | 1.0% |
| 14 |  CRB#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.8%Relegation: 21.6% | 0.5% |
| 15 |  Londrina#15Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.6%Relegation: 25.7% | 0.3% |
| 16 |  Botafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1% | 0.3% |
| 17 |  Ceará#16Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.3%Relegation: 33.9% | 0.2% |
| 18 |  Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4% | 55.1% |
| 2 | Criciúma#2Winner: 17.8%Promotion: 54.5%Relegation: 0.4% | 54.5% |
| 3 | Vila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6% | 51.1% |
| 4 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 42.0% |
| 5 | São Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2% | 32.6% |
| 6 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3% | 31.4% |
| 7 | Juventude#5Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 29.7%Relegation: 2.4% | 29.7% |
| 8 | Sport#8Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 22.6% |
| 9 | Goiás#9Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 19.5%Relegation: 5.0% | 19.5% |
| 10 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 7.4% | 15.4% |
| 11 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8% | 13.8% |
| 12 | Náutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3% | 9.2% |
| 13 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 8.3%Relegation: 13.5% | 8.3% |
| 14 | CRB#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.8%Relegation: 21.6% | 4.8% |
| 15 | Londrina#15Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.6%Relegation: 25.7% | 3.6% |
| 16 | Botafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1% | 3.0% |
| 17 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.3%Relegation: 33.9% | 2.3% |
| 18 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7% | 0.9% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  América-MG#20Relegation: 91.5% | 91.5% |
| 2 |  Ponte Preta#19Relegation: 85.5% | 85.5% |
| 3 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7% | 51.7% |
| 4 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.3%Relegation: 33.9% | 33.9% |
| 5 | Botafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1% | 31.1% |
| 6 | Londrina#15Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.6%Relegation: 25.7% | 25.7% |
| 7 | CRB#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.8%Relegation: 21.6% | 21.6% |
| 8 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 8.3%Relegation: 13.5% | 13.5% |
| 9 | Náutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3% | 12.3% |
| 10 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8% | 7.8% |
| 11 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 12 | Goiás#9Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 19.5%Relegation: 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 13 | Sport#8Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 3.8% |
| 14 | Juventude#5Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 29.7%Relegation: 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 15 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 16 | São Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 17 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 18 | Vila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6% | 0.6% |
| 19 | Novorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 20 | Criciúma#2Winner: 17.8%Promotion: 54.5%Relegation: 0.4% | 0.4% |
Round 16 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1↑1 | Novorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4% | 16 | 30 | 19% | 55% | 0% |
2↑1 | Criciúma#2Winner: 17.8%Promotion: 54.5%Relegation: 0.4% | 16 | 30 | 18% | 55% | 0% |
3↓2 | Vila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6% | 15 | 28 | 16% | 51% | 1% |
4↑1 | Fortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0% | 16 | 28 | 11% | 42% | 1% |
5↑1 | Juventude#5Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 29.7%Relegation: 2.4% | 16 | 26 | 6% | 30% | 2% |
6↓2 | Operário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3% | 15 | 25 | 7% | 31% | 2% |
7 | São Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2% | 15 | 25 | 8% | 33% | 2% |
8 | Sport#8Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 3.8% | 16 | 25 | 4% | 23% | 4% |
9↑1 | Goiás#9Winner: 3.3%Promotion: 19.5%Relegation: 5.0% | 16 | 24 | 3% | 20% | 5% |
10↑3 | Cuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8% | 16 | 23 | 2% | 14% | 8% |
11↓2 | Athletic Club#11Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 7.4% | 15 | 22 | 3% | 15% | 7% |
12 | Náutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3% | 16 | 21 | 1% | 9% | 12% |
13↓2 | Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 8.3%Relegation: 13.5% | 16 | 21 | 1% | 8% | 14% |
14 | CRB#14Winner: 0.5%Promotion: 4.8%Relegation: 21.6% | 16 | 19 | 1% | 5% | 22% |
15↑2 | Londrina#15Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.6%Relegation: 25.7% | 16 | 18 | 0% | 4% | 26% |
16↓1 | Ceará#16Winner: 0.2%Promotion: 2.3%Relegation: 33.9% | 16 | 17 | 0% | 2% | 34% |
17↓1 | Botafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1% | 15 | 16 | 0% | 3% | 31% |
18 | Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7% | 15 | 13 | 0% | 1% | 52% |
19 | Ponte Preta#19Relegation: 85.5% | 16 | 8 | — | — | 86% |
20 | América-MG#20Relegation: 91.5% | 16 | 6 | — | — | 92% |
WinnerPromotionRelegation
After Round 16: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Avaí's Relegation probability dropped from 87.1% to 51.7% (-35.4%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Promotion probability dropped from 74.6% to 51.1% (-23.5%).
- ↓Fortaleza's Promotion probability dropped from 64.4% to 42% (-22.4%).
- ↑Botafogo-SP's Relegation probability climbed from 11.5% to 31.1% (+19.6%).
- ↓Operário-PR's Promotion probability dropped from 50.9% to 31.4% (-19.5%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Botafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1%10:00 PMAvaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7%
10:00 PMAvaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7%49%
23%
Vila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6%10:00 PMSão Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2%
10:00 PMSão Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2%65%
15%
Athletic Club#11Winner: 2.5%Promotion: 15.4%Relegation: 7.4%11:00 PMOperário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3%
11:00 PMOperário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3%48%
25%
25%
47%
Juventude#5Winner: 6.3%Promotion: 29.7%Relegation: 2.4%10:00 PMVila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6%
10:00 PMVila Nova#3Winner: 16.3%Promotion: 51.1%Relegation: 0.6%57%
15%
Sport#8Winner: 4.1%Promotion: 22.6%Relegation: 3.8%11:00 PMBotafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1%
11:00 PMBotafogo-SP#17Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 3.0%Relegation: 31.1%43%
30%
Operário-PR#6Winner: 7.0%Promotion: 31.4%Relegation: 2.3%2:00 PMNovorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4%
2:00 PMNovorizontino#1Winner: 18.5%Promotion: 55.1%Relegation: 0.4%63%
15%
Avaí#18Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 0.9%Relegation: 51.7%7:00 PMNáutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3%
7:00 PMNáutico#12Winner: 1.2%Promotion: 9.2%Relegation: 12.3%21%
54%
São Bernardo#7Winner: 7.5%Promotion: 32.6%Relegation: 2.2%7:00 PMCuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8%
7:00 PMCuiabá#10Winner: 2.0%Promotion: 13.8%Relegation: 7.8%40%
27%
Atlético-GO#13Winner: 1.0%Promotion: 8.3%Relegation: 13.5%9:00 PMFortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0%
9:00 PMFortaleza#4Winner: 11.1%Promotion: 42.0%Relegation: 1.0%39%
34%
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Winner:
Promotion:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Novorizontino currently have the highest title probability at 19%. With 22 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- América-MG currently faces the highest relegation risk at 92%, followed by Ponte Preta at 86%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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