Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Round 24 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Criciúma#1Win: 30.6%Promo: 77.1% | 30.6% |
| 2 |  Juventude#2Win: 28.6%Promo: 74.0% | 28.6% |
| 3 |  Vila Nova#3Win: 14.4%Promo: 57.3% | 14.4% |
| 4 |  Fortaleza#4Win: 8.7%Promo: 46.0%Releg: 0.1% | 8.7% |
| 5 |  Novorizontino#5Win: 5.9%Promo: 34.1%Releg: 0.5% | 5.9% |
| 6 |  CRB#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 26.2%Releg: 0.8% | 3.9% |
| 7 |  Sport#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 18.1%Releg: 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 8 |  Operário-PR#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 9 |  Athletic Club#9Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.6%Releg: 3.1% | 1.4% |
| 10 |  Atlético-GO#11Win: 0.9%Promo: 9.8%Releg: 4.5% | 0.9% |
| 11 |  Goiás#10Win: 0.4%Promo: 6.5%Releg: 6.5% | 0.4% |
| 12 |  Cuiabá#12Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.3%Releg: 7.4% | 0.4% |
| 13 |  Botafogo-SP#14Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.5%Releg: 8.9% | 0.4% |
| 14 |  São Bernardo#13Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.3%Releg: 9.0% | 0.3% |
| 15 |  Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 13.0% | 0.1% |
Probability of being promoted to the first division
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciúma#1Win: 30.6%Promo: 77.1% | 77.1% |
| 2 | Juventude#2Win: 28.6%Promo: 74.0% | 74.0% |
| 3 | Vila Nova#3Win: 14.4%Promo: 57.3% | 57.3% |
| 4 | Fortaleza#4Win: 8.7%Promo: 46.0%Releg: 0.1% | 46.0% |
| 5 | Novorizontino#5Win: 5.9%Promo: 34.1%Releg: 0.5% | 34.1% |
| 6 | CRB#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 26.2%Releg: 0.8% | 26.2% |
| 7 | Sport#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 18.1%Releg: 1.7% | 18.1% |
| 8 | Operário-PR#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.4% | 17.8% |
| 9 | Athletic Club#9Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.6%Releg: 3.1% | 13.6% |
| 10 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 0.9%Promo: 9.8%Releg: 4.5% | 9.8% |
| 11 | Goiás#10Win: 0.4%Promo: 6.5%Releg: 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 12 | Botafogo-SP#14Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.5%Releg: 8.9% | 5.5% |
| 13 | Cuiabá#12Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.3%Releg: 7.4% | 5.3% |
| 14 | São Bernardo#13Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.3%Releg: 9.0% | 4.3% |
| 15 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 13.0% | 2.8% |
| 16 |  Avaí#16Promo: 1.2%Releg: 23.8% | 1.2% |
| 17 |  Ceará#17Promo: 0.7%Releg: 33.5% | 0.7% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.9% | 99.9% |
| 2 |  América-MG#19Releg: 99.6% | 99.6% |
| 3 |  Londrina#18Releg: 86.1% | 86.1% |
| 4 | Ceará#17Promo: 0.7%Releg: 33.5% | 33.5% |
| 5 | Avaí#16Promo: 1.2%Releg: 23.8% | 23.8% |
| 6 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 13.0% | 13.0% |
| 7 | São Bernardo#13Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.3%Releg: 9.0% | 9.0% |
| 8 | Botafogo-SP#14Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.5%Releg: 8.9% | 8.9% |
| 9 | Cuiabá#12Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.3%Releg: 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 10 | Goiás#10Win: 0.4%Promo: 6.5%Releg: 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 11 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 0.9%Promo: 9.8%Releg: 4.5% | 4.5% |
| 12 | Athletic Club#9Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.6%Releg: 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 13 | Sport#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 18.1%Releg: 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 14 | Operário-PR#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 15 | CRB#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 26.2%Releg: 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 16 | Novorizontino#5Win: 5.9%Promo: 34.1%Releg: 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 17 | Fortaleza#4Win: 8.7%Promo: 46.0%Releg: 0.1% | 0.1% |
Round 24 of 38
Table
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | Promo | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Criciúma#1Win: 30.6%Promo: 77.1% | 24 | 44 | 31% | 77% | — |
2 | Juventude#2Win: 28.6%Promo: 74.0% | 23 | 42 | 29% | 74% | — |
3 | Vila Nova#3Win: 14.4%Promo: 57.3% | 24 | 41 | 14% | 57% | — |
4 | Fortaleza#4Win: 8.7%Promo: 46.0%Releg: 0.1% | 24 | 40 | 9% | 46% | 0% |
5 | Novorizontino#5Win: 5.9%Promo: 34.1%Releg: 0.5% | 23 | 37 | 6% | 34% | 1% |
6 | CRB#6Win: 3.9%Promo: 26.2%Releg: 0.8% | 23 | 36 | 4% | 26% | 1% |
7 | Operário-PR#7Win: 2.0%Promo: 17.8%Releg: 1.4% | 24 | 36 | 2% | 18% | 1% |
8 | Sport#8Win: 2.1%Promo: 18.1%Releg: 1.7% | 23 | 35 | 2% | 18% | 2% |
9 | Athletic Club#9Win: 1.4%Promo: 13.6%Releg: 3.1% | 23 | 34 | 1% | 14% | 3% |
10↑1 | Goiás#10Win: 0.4%Promo: 6.5%Releg: 6.5% | 24 | 33 | 0% | 7% | 7% |
11↓1 | Atlético-GO#11Win: 0.9%Promo: 9.8%Releg: 4.5% | 23 | 33 | 1% | 10% | 5% |
12 | Cuiabá#12Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.3%Releg: 7.4% | 24 | 33 | 0% | 5% | 7% |
13 | São Bernardo#13Win: 0.3%Promo: 4.3%Releg: 9.0% | 24 | 32 | 0% | 4% | 9% |
14 | Botafogo-SP#14Win: 0.4%Promo: 5.5%Releg: 8.9% | 23 | 31 | 0% | 6% | 9% |
15 | Náutico#15Win: 0.1%Promo: 2.8%Releg: 13.0% | 24 | 31 | 0% | 3% | 13% |
16 | Avaí#16Promo: 1.2%Releg: 23.8% | 24 | 29 | — | 1% | 24% |
17 | Ceará#17Promo: 0.7%Releg: 33.5% | 24 | 28 | — | 1% | 34% |
18 | Londrina#18Releg: 86.1% | 24 | 21 | — | — | 86% |
19 | América-MG#19Releg: 99.6% | 23 | 11 | — | — | 100% |
20 | Ponte Preta#20Releg: 99.9% | 24 | 10 | — | — | 100% |
WinPromoReleg
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Athletic Club#9Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.1%10:30 PMNovorizontino#5Winner: 5.9%Promotion: 34.1%Relegation: 0.5%
10:30 PMNovorizontino#5Winner: 5.9%Promotion: 34.1%Relegation: 0.5%35%
29%
35%
36%
Atlético-GO#11Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 9.8%Relegation: 4.5%10:30 PMBotafogo-SP#14Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 5.5%Relegation: 8.9%
10:30 PMBotafogo-SP#14Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 5.5%Relegation: 8.9%35%
32%
Goiás#10Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 6.5%Relegation: 6.5%10:30 PMSão Bernardo#13Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 4.3%Relegation: 9.0%
10:30 PMSão Bernardo#13Winner: 0.3%Promotion: 4.3%Relegation: 9.0%96%
1%
Novorizontino#5Winner: 5.9%Promotion: 34.1%Relegation: 0.5%11:30 PMSport#8Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 18.1%Relegation: 1.7%
11:30 PMSport#8Winner: 2.1%Promotion: 18.1%Relegation: 1.7%52%
21%
Náutico#15Winner: 0.1%Promotion: 2.8%Relegation: 13.0%11:30 PMAthletic Club#9Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.1%
11:30 PMAthletic Club#9Winner: 1.4%Promotion: 13.6%Relegation: 3.1%8%
74%
Botafogo-SP#14Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 5.5%Relegation: 8.9%9:30 PMCuiabá#12Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 5.3%Relegation: 7.4%
9:30 PMCuiabá#12Winner: 0.4%Promotion: 5.3%Relegation: 7.4%32%
38%
Avaí#16Promotion: 1.2%Relegation: 23.8%2:00 PMAtlético-GO#11Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 9.8%Relegation: 4.5%
2:00 PMAtlético-GO#11Winner: 0.9%Promotion: 9.8%Relegation: 4.5%49%
25%
After Round 24: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↓Avaí's Releg probability dropped from 53.7% to 23.8% (-29.9%).
- ↑Ceará's Releg probability climbed from 18.8% to 33.5% (+14.7%).
- ↓Criciúma's Promo probability dropped from 85.6% to 77.1% (-8.5%).
- ↓Vila Nova's Promo probability dropped from 65.1% to 57.3% (-7.8%).
- ↓Juventude's Promo probability dropped from 81.3% to 74% (-7.3%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Season Outlook
Win:
Promo:
Brasileiro 2026, Serie B — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Criciúma currently have the highest title probability at 31%. With 14 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B?
- Ponte Preta currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by América-MG at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Brasileiro 2026, Serie B probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Brasileiro 2026, Serie B predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.
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