Chapecoense Relegation Chances 2026
Brasileirão 2026
Chapecoense are the clear favourite for relegation from the Brasileirão with a 90.0% probability, and their odds are rising after the latest results.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Relegation | 90.0% |
| Copa Sulamericana | 2.1% |
| Libertadores | 0.0% |
| Title | 0.0% |
Chapecoense are currently 20th in the Brasileirão 2026 table with 17 matches played (1W 6D 10L, 9 pts).
🔍 What This Means
At 90%, Chapecoense are currently a strong contender for relegation from the Brasileirão. The model simulates every remaining Brasileirão fixture to estimate how often Chapecoense finish inside the bottom four and face the drop.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations after every round of matches. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Chapecoense achieves relegation from the Brasileirão across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 Brasileirão 2026 — relegation odds for every team
| Palmeiras | 0.0% |
| Flamengo | 0.1% |
| Fluminense | 0.7% |
| Athletico-PR | 1.1% |
| Bragantino | 1.7% |
| Coritiba | 6.4% |
| Bahia | 4.3% |
| São Paulo | 8.5% |
| Atlético-MG | 11.6% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full Brasileirão 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.