Premier League 25/26 — Round 37 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Manchester City#2Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Manchester United#3Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 |  Aston Villa#4Champions League: 88.9%Europa League: 11.1% | 88.9% |
| 5 |  Liverpool#5Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 88.9% | 11.1% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool#5Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 88.9% | 88.9% |
| 2 | Aston Villa#4Champions League: 88.9%Europa League: 11.1% | 11.1% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Burnley#19Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  West Ham#18Relegation: 88.9% | 88.9% |
| 4 |  Tottenham#17Relegation: 11.1% | 11.1% |
Round 37 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 37 | 82 | 100% | 100% | — | — |
2 | Manchester City#2Champions League: 100.0% | 37 | 78 | — | 100% | — | — |
3 | Manchester United#3Champions League: 100.0% | 37 | 68 | — | 100% | — | — |
4↑1 | Aston Villa#4Champions League: 88.9%Europa League: 11.1% | 37 | 62 | — | 89% | 11% | — |
5↓1 | Liverpool#5Champions League: 11.1%Europa League: 88.9% | 37 | 59 | — | 11% | 89% | — |
6 |  Bournemouth#6 | 37 | 56 | — | — | — | — |
7 |  Brighton#7 | 37 | 53 | — | — | — | — |
8↑1 |  Chelsea#8 | 37 | 52 | — | — | — | — |
9↓1 |  Brentford#9 | 37 | 52 | — | — | — | — |
10↑2 |  Sunderland#10 | 37 | 51 | — | — | — | — |
11↑2 |  Newcastle#11 | 37 | 49 | — | — | — | — |
12↓2 |  Everton#12 | 37 | 49 | — | — | — | — |
13↓2 |  Fulham#13 | 37 | 49 | — | — | — | — |
14 |  Leeds United#14 | 37 | 47 | — | — | — | — |
15 |  Crystal Palace#15 | 37 | 45 | — | — | — | — |
16 |  Nottingham Forest#16 | 37 | 43 | — | — | — | — |
17 | Tottenham#17Relegation: 11.1% | 37 | 38 | — | — | — | 11% |
18 | West Ham#18Relegation: 88.9% | 37 | 36 | — | — | — | 89% |
19 | Burnley#19Relegation: 100.0% | 37 | 21 | — | — | — | 100% |
20 | Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 100.0% | 37 | 19 | — | — | — | 100% |
WinnerChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
After Round 37: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Arsenal have mathematically secured Winner.
- ↓Manchester City have been mathematically eliminated from Winner.
- ↑Liverpool's Europa League probability climbed from 81.5% to 88.9% (+7.4%).
- ↓Bournemouth have been mathematically eliminated from Europa League.
- ↑Tottenham's Relegation probability climbed from 3.7% to 11.1% (+7.4%).
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
46%
29%
49%
21%
19%
54%
Manchester City#2Champions League: 100.0%3:00 PMAston Villa#4Champions League: 88.9%Europa League: 11.1%
3:00 PMAston Villa#4Champions League: 88.9%Europa League: 11.1%69%
12%
34%
41%
32%
42%
40%
36%
Premier League 25/26 — Season Outlook
Champions League:
Premier League 25/26 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Premier League 25/26?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Arsenal currently have the highest title probability at 100%. With 1 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Premier League 25/26?
- Burnley currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Wolverhampton at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Premier League 25/26 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Premier League 25/26 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.