Manchester City
Manchester City Champions League Chances 2026 — 99.9%
Premier League 25/26 · Round 34 of 38 · Rank #2 · 33 MP
Live — Updated at
Manchester City are 2nd in the Premier League 25/26 2026 season after 33 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 99.9% chance of champions league — with 4 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 5 Premier League 25/26 matches, Manchester City have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Alongside their champions league probability, Manchester City's winner chance currently stands at 28.2%.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining Premier League 25/26 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Manchester City's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 28.2%
- Champions League: 99.9%
- Europa League: 0.0%Since 2026-04-12
- Relegation: 0.0%Since 2025-11-09
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
3:00 PM
Aston Villa#5Champions League: 48.6%Europa League: 49.4%Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Burnley#19Relegation: 99.9% | 0 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-04-19 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 |  Arsenal#1Winner: 71.8%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-04-12 | Chelsea#8Europa League: 0.3% | 0 - 3 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-03-14 | West Ham#17Relegation: 31.7% | 1 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-03-04 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 2 |  Nottingham Forest#16Relegation: 2.3% |
| 2026-02-28 | Leeds United#15Relegation: 2.1% | 0 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-02-21 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 |  Newcastle#14Relegation: 0.1% |
| 2026-02-11 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 0 |  Fulham#10Europa League: 0.1% |
| 2026-02-08 | Liverpool#4Champions League: 57.6%Europa League: 41.3% | 1 - 2 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-02-01 | Tottenham#18Relegation: 63.8% | 2 - 2 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-01-24 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 0 |  Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 99.9% |
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United#3Champions League: 93.7%Europa League: 6.2% | 2 - 0 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2026-01-07 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 1 |  Brighton#6Champions League: 0.1%Europa League: 2.0% |
| 2026-01-04 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 1 | Chelsea#8Europa League: 0.3% |
| 2026-01-01 | Sunderland#12 | 0 - 0 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-12-27 | Nottingham Forest#16Relegation: 2.3% | 1 - 2 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-12-20 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 0 | West Ham#17Relegation: 31.7% |
| 2025-12-14 | Crystal Palace#13 | 0 - 3 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-12-06 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 0 | Sunderland#12 |
| 2025-12-02 | Fulham#10Europa League: 0.1% | 4 - 5 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-29 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 2 | Leeds United#15Relegation: 2.1% |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle#14Relegation: 0.1% | 2 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-09 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 0 | Liverpool#4Champions League: 57.6%Europa League: 41.3% |
| 2025-11-02 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 1 |  Bournemouth#7Europa League: 0.4% |
| 2025-10-26 | Aston Villa#5Champions League: 48.6%Europa League: 49.4% | 1 - 0 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-10-18 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 0 |  Everton#11 |
| 2025-10-05 | Brentford#9Europa League: 0.2% | 0 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-27 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 5 - 1 | Burnley#19Relegation: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-21 | Arsenal#1Winner: 71.8%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 3 - 0 | Manchester United#3Champions League: 93.7%Europa League: 6.2% |
| 2025-08-31 | Brighton#6Champions League: 0.1%Europa League: 2.0% | 2 - 1 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-08-23 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 0 - 2 | Tottenham#18Relegation: 63.8% |
| 2025-08-16 | Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 99.9% | 0 - 4 | Manchester City#2Winner: 28.2%Champions League: 99.9% |