Premier League 25/26 — Round 38 of 38
Updated at
Probability of winning the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Champions League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Manchester City#2Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Manchester United#3Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 4 |  Aston Villa#4Champions League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of qualifying for the Europa League
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Liverpool#5Europa League: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Probability of being relegated at the end of the championship
| # | Team | % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham#18Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2 |  Burnley#19Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 3 |  Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 100.0% | 100.0% |
Round 38 of 38
Standings
| # | Team | MP | P | Title | UCL | UEL | Rel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal#1Winner: 100.0%Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 85 | 100% | 100% | — | — |
2 | Manchester City#2Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 78 | — | 100% | — | — |
3 | Manchester United#3Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 71 | — | 100% | — | — |
4 | Aston Villa#4Champions League: 100.0% | 38 | 65 | — | 100% | — | — |
5 | Liverpool#5Europa League: 100.0% | 38 | 60 | — | — | 100% | — |
6 |  Bournemouth#6 | 38 | 57 | — | — | — | — |
7↑3 |  Sunderland#7 | 38 | 54 | — | — | — | — |
8↓1 |  Brighton#8 | 38 | 53 | — | — | — | — |
9 |  Brentford#9 | 38 | 53 | — | — | — | — |
10↓2 |  Chelsea#10 | 38 | 52 | — | — | — | — |
11↑2 |  Fulham#11 | 38 | 52 | — | — | — | — |
12↓1 |  Newcastle#12 | 38 | 49 | — | — | — | — |
13↓1 |  Everton#13 | 38 | 49 | — | — | — | — |
14 |  Leeds United#14 | 38 | 47 | — | — | — | — |
15 |  Crystal Palace#15 | 38 | 45 | — | — | — | — |
16 |  Nottingham Forest#16 | 38 | 44 | — | — | — | — |
17 |  Tottenham#17 | 38 | 41 | — | — | — | — |
18 | West Ham#18Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 39 | — | — | — | 100% |
19 | Burnley#19Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 22 | — | — | — | 100% |
20 | Wolverhampton#20Relegation: 100.0% | 38 | 20 | — | — | — | 100% |
WinnerChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
After Round 38: Who Improved Their Chances the Most?
- ↑Aston Villa have mathematically secured Champions League.
- ↓Liverpool have been mathematically eliminated from Champions League.
- ↓Tottenham have been mathematically eliminated from Relegation.
- ↑West Ham have mathematically secured Relegation.
Updated after every round · Monte Carlo simulation
Premier League 25/26 — Season Outlook
Champions League:
Europa League:
Premier League 25/26 — Frequently Asked Questions
- Who will win the Premier League 25/26?
- Based on our supercomputer's latest simulations, Arsenal currently have the highest title probability at 100%. With 0 rounds remaining the race is still live — CupChances re-runs up to millions of simulations every 10 minutes during every match.
- Which teams are most at risk of relegation from the Premier League 25/26?
- West Ham currently faces the highest relegation risk at 100%, followed by Burnley at 100%. These figures update every 10 minutes during every match as the season unfolds.
- How does CupChances calculate Premier League 25/26 probabilities?
- Our supercomputer runs up to millions of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season, using each team's current points, goal difference and remaining fixture list. Every simulated season produces a complete final table, and the probabilities represent how often each outcome occurs across all those simulations.
- How often are the Premier League 25/26 predictions updated?
- Probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match — as long as the game is live, the numbers keep updating. Enable push notifications on this page to receive live probability shifts directly on your device.