Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano Relegation Chances 2026 — 2.5%
La Liga 25/26 · Round 33 of 38 · Rank #12 · 33 MP
Rayo Vallecano La Liga 25/26 — Key Insights
0.0%
Winner
2.5%
Relegation
#12
Position
LWLWD
Last 5 matches
Explore detailed analysis below ↓
Live — Updated at
Rayo Vallecano are 12th in the La Liga 25/26 2026 season after 33 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 2.5% chance of relegation — with 5 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.
In their last 5 La Liga 25/26 matches, Rayo Vallecano have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.
Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining La Liga 25/26 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Rayo Vallecano's 2026 season has evolved round by round.
Current Probabilities:
- Winner: 0.0%Since 2025-11-22
- Champions League: 0.0%Since 2026-01-31
- Europa League: 0.1%
- Conference League: 1.2%
- Relegation: 2.5%
Next matches
Times in Coordinated Universal Time
Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%41%
23%
Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%3:00 PM
Girona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9%
3:00 PMGirona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9%48%
24%
Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%24%
54%
Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%3:00 PM
Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9%
3:00 PMVillarreal#3Champions League: 99.9%48%
24%
Alavés#16Relegation: 21.2%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%
3:00 PMRayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5%22%
56%
Results so far
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 3 - 3 |  Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 0 |  Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5% |
| 2026-04-12 | Mallorca#17Relegation: 31.9% | 3 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-04-03 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 0 |  Elche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1% |
| 2026-03-22 | Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% | 1 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-03-16 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 |  Levante#19Relegation: 66.8% |
| 2026-03-08 | Sevilla#18Relegation: 57.5% | 1 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-03-04 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 3 - 0 |  Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3% |
| 2026-02-28 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 |  Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% |
| 2026-02-21 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% | 1 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-02-15 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 3 - 0 |  Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% |
| 2026-02-01 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% | 2 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-01-24 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 3 |  Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4% |
| 2026-01-18 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6% | 3 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2026-01-11 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 2 - 1 | Mallorca#17Relegation: 31.9% |
| 2026-01-02 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 | Getafe#6Europa League: 3.8%Conference League: 23.7% |
| 2025-12-21 | Elche#14Conference League: 0.8%Relegation: 5.1% | 4 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-12-15 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 0 - 0 | Betis#5Champions League: 0.3%Europa League: 87.1%Conference League: 9.6% |
| 2025-12-07 | Espanyol#13Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 3.5% | 1 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-12-01 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 | Valencia#11Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.8% |
| 2025-11-23 | Real Oviedo#20Relegation: 99.3% | 0 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-11-09 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 0 - 0 | Real Madrid#2Winner: 0.2%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-11-01 | Villarreal#3Champions League: 99.9% | 4 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-10-26 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 0 | Alavés#16Relegation: 21.2% |
| 2025-10-19 | Levante#19Relegation: 66.8% | 0 - 3 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-10-05 | Real Sociedad#8Europa League: 3.1%Conference League: 16.3% | 0 - 1 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-09-28 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 0 - 1 | Sevilla#18Relegation: 57.5% |
| 2025-09-24 | Atlético de Madrid#4Champions League: 99.7%Europa League: 0.3% | 3 - 2 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-09-21 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 | Celta#7Europa League: 4.2%Conference League: 30.6% |
| 2025-09-14 | Osasuna#9Europa League: 0.9%Conference League: 10.4% | 2 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-08-31 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% | 1 - 1 | Barcelona#1Winner: 99.8%Champions League: 99.9% |
| 2025-08-25 | Athletic Bilbao#10Europa League: 0.4%Conference League: 4.6%Relegation: 0.4% | 1 - 0 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |
| 2025-08-15 | Girona#15Conference League: 0.4%Relegation: 8.9% | 1 - 3 | Rayo Vallecano#12Europa League: 0.1%Conference League: 1.2%Relegation: 2.5% |