United States Winner Chances
FIFA World Cup 2026
United States have no remaining chance of winning the title according to the model.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 0.0% |
| Final | 0.0% |
| Semifinals | 0.0% |
| Quarterfinals | 0.1% |
| Round of 16 | 1.1% |
| Knockout Stage | 11.8% |
| Group Stage Exit | 88.2% |
United States are currently 44th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 table with 0 matches played (0W 0D 0L, 0 pts).
🔍 What This Means
United States have no remaining mathematical chance of winning the title. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See United States's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page.
🤖 How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs thousands of Monte Carlo simulations after every round of matches. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often United States achieves winning the title across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 FIFA World Cup 2026 — Winner odds for every team
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full FIFA World Cup 2026 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.