FIFA World Cup 2026
K.-O.-PROGNOSE
Wahrscheinlichkeits-Snapshot über 9 Spieltage zwischen Gruppen- und K.-o.-Phase.
Ab dem Achtelfinale wird die WM 2026 zu einem K.o.-Turnier. Diese Seite verfolgt den wahrscheinlichsten Weg ins Finale für die Top-Favoriten, basierend auf Live-Simulationen, die sich mit jedem Ergebnis und jeder Gruppentabelle aktualisieren.
Erwarteter Meister
Frankreich
Meister: 12.4%
K.-o.-Bracket-Prognose
Vorhergesagtes Bracket basierend auf der FIFA-Ranglisten-Simulation.
Finale
Frankreich
1. Grp I
vs
Brasilien
1. Grp C
54%46%
Halbfinale
Frankreich
1. Grp I
vs
Belgien
1. Grp G
52%48%
Brasilien
1. Grp C
vs
Argentinien
1. Grp J
57%43%
Viertelfinale
Frankreich
1. Grp I
vs
Niederlande
1. Grp F
70%30%
Spanien
1. Grp H
vs
Belgien
1. Grp G
22%78%
Brasilien
1. Grp C
vs
England
1. Grp L
68%32%
Argentinien
1. Grp J
vs
Portugal
1. Grp K
68%32%
Achtelfinale
Deutschland
1. Grp E
vs
Frankreich
1. Grp I
43%57%
Tschechische Republik
2. Grp A
vs
Niederlande
1. Grp F
16%84%
Kolumbien
2. Grp K
vs
Spanien
1. Grp H
36%64%
Vereinigte Staaten
1. Grp D
vs
Belgien
1. Grp G
33%67%
Brasilien
1. Grp C
vs
Ecuador
2. Grp E
88%12%
Mexiko
1. Grp A
vs
England
1. Grp L
49%51%
Argentinien
1. Grp J
vs
Türkei
2. Grp D
93%7%
Schweiz
1. Grp B
vs
Portugal
1. Grp K
37%63%
Runde der letzten 32
Deutschland
1. Grp E
vs
Schottland
3rd (A/B/C/D/F)
69%31%
Frankreich
1. Grp I
vs
Neuseeland
3rd (C/D/F/G/H)
76%24%
Tschechische Republik
2. Grp A
vs
Kanada
2. Grp B
59%41%
Niederlande
1. Grp F
vs
Marokko
2. Grp C
74%26%
Kolumbien
2. Grp K
vs
Kroatien
2. Grp L
63%37%
Spanien
1. Grp H
vs
Österreich
2. Grp J
74%26%
Vereinigte Staaten
1. Grp D
vs
Curaçao
3rd (A/E/G/J/L)
75%25%
Belgien
1. Grp G
vs
Norwegen
3rd (A/E/H/I/J)
78%22%
Brasilien
1. Grp C
vs
Schweden
2. Grp F
67%33%
Ecuador
2. Grp E
vs
Senegal
2. Grp I
56%44%
Mexiko
1. Grp A
vs
Norwegen
3rd (C/E/F/H/I)
77%23%
England
1. Grp L
vs
Norwegen
3rd (B/H/I/J/K)
79%21%
Argentinien
1. Grp J
vs
Uruguay
2. Grp H
75%25%
Türkei
2. Grp D
vs
Ägypten
2. Grp G
64%36%
Schweiz
1. Grp B
vs
Norwegen
3rd (E/F/G/I/J)
71%29%
Portugal
1. Grp K
vs
Algerien
3rd (B/D/J/L)
75%25%
Die Slots spiegeln die erwarteten Gruppenergebnisse wider. Drittplatzierte zeigen die 8 wahrscheinlichsten Qualifizierten.
K.-o.-Wahrscheinlichkeitstabelle
| # | Mannschaft | K.-o.-Phase | Achtelfinale | Viertelfinale | Halbfinale | Finale | Meister |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 94.7% | 67.4% | 34.5% | 26.8% | 18.5% | 12.4% | |
| 2 | 96.5% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 30.7% | 16.1% | 11.4% | |
| 3 | 91.1% | 71.3% | 47.3% | 28.7% | 15.8% | 10.6% | |
| 4 | 96.0% | 68.7% | 39.0% | 27.5% | 16.5% | 9.2% | |
| 5 | 95.4% | 65.7% | 46.1% | 35.3% | 16.7% | 7.9% | |
| 6 | 98.2% | 62.1% | 43.6% | 27.6% | 17.1% | 5.6% | |
| 7 | 88.5% | 56.3% | 32.5% | 15.9% | 9.8% | 5.3% | |
| 8 | 92.8% | 65.2% | 33.8% | 17.8% | 10.4% | 5.1% | |
| 9 | 98.2% | 78.4% | 53.2% | 20.8% | 12.8% | 4.9% | |
| 10 | 93.1% | 68.1% | 36.1% | 17.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | |
| 11 | 94.7% | 60.3% | 25.7% | 12.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | |
| 12 | 91.7% | 61.7% | 39.9% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% | |
| 13 | 88.5% | 58.3% | 27.9% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 14 | 80.0% | 41.8% | 20.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 15 | 76.6% | 36.2% | 13.6% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | |
| 16 | 91.3% | 51.1% | 19.7% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 1.5% | |
| 17 | 87.6% | 45.5% | 16.2% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 1.4% | |
| 18 | 85.6% | 49.9% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| 19 | 64.1% | 26.8% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 60.9% | 24.5% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
| 21 | 62.1% | 37.2% | 20.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 22 | 64.7% | 24.3% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 23 | 70.0% | 21.9% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 69.4% | 27.7% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 56.3% | 16.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 80.9% | 25.0% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 64.1% | 27.2% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 28 | 71.2% | 24.0% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 66.1% | 31.3% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 66.8% | 21.7% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 57.9% | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 53.4% | 20.4% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 68.6% | 20.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 34 | 39.4% | 16.3% | 7.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 65.6% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 53.1% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 52.5% | 17.4% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 30.0% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 43.8% | 11.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 38.5% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 35.0% | 8.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 66.2% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 43 | 47.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 44 | 29.4% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 45 | 20.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 46 | 21.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 47 | 18.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 48 | 17.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |