Real Madrid Relegation Chances
La Liga 26/27
Real Madrid face long odds for relegation, with only a 1.0% probability, and their odds are rising after the latest results.
📊 Full Probability Breakdown
| Winner | 12.6% |
| Champions League | 50.3% |
| Europa League | 8.7% |
| Conference League | 7.4% |
| Relegation | 1.0% |
Real Madrid are currently 3rd in the La Liga 26/27 table with 7 matches played (5W 0D 2L, 15 pts).
Probability History
🔍 What This Means
At 1%, Real Madrid are currently a long shot for relegation. These probabilities are recalculated every 10 minutes during every match. See Real Madrid's full stats and historical probability chart on their team page. Real Madrid's probability of relegation has held steady around 1% over the last round.
How These Probabilities Are Calculated
CupChances runs 1 million Monte Carlo simulations every 10 minutes during every match. Each simulation plays out the remaining fixtures using a statistical model built on current standings, points, goal difference, and head-to-head form. The percentage shown is how often Real Madrid achieves relegation across all those simulated seasons. Probabilities update automatically — no manual intervention required.
📋 La Liga 26/27 — Relegation odds for every team
| Barcelona | 0.1% |
| Betis | 0.7% |
| Atlético de Madrid | 2.4% |
| Sevilla | 6.5% |
| Real Sociedad | 7.2% |
| Alavés | 10.6% |
| Osasuna | 12.4% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 12.0% |
| Athletic Bilbao | 8.2% |
Showing top 9 teams by league position. View full La Liga 26/27 table →
Includes historical probability chart, all fixtures, and live standings.