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Canada Knockout Chances 2026 — 62.7%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #25 · 1 MP

How far can Canada go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Canada's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

Canada FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
0.5%
Winner
37.3%
Group Stage Exit
#25
Position
D
Last 1 matches
Canada are strong contenders for Knockout at 62.7%, currently ranked 25th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Canada are 25th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 1 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 62.7% chance of knockout — with 86 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 1 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Canada have recorded 1 draw. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their knockout probability, Canada's winner chance currently stands at 0.5%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Canada's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.5%
  • Final: 1.2%
  • Semifinals: 3.5%
  • Quarterfinals: 12.7%
  • Round of 16: 27.5%
  • Knockout: 62.7%
  • Group Stage Exit: 37.3%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Japan Knockout ChancesCzech Republic Knockout ChancesScotland Knockout ChancesTunisia Knockout ChancesTurkey Knockout ChancesNorway Knockout ChancesAustralia Knockout ChancesEgypt Knockout ChancesAustria Knockout ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Knockout Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Canada#25Winner: 0.5%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 3.5%Quarterfinals: 12.7%Round of 16: 27.5%Knockout: 62.7%Group Stage Exit: 37.3%10:00 PMQatar#31Winner: 0.3%Final: 1.0%Semifinals: 2.8%Quarterfinals: 10.6%Round of 16: 24.3%Knockout: 57.9%Group Stage Exit: 42.1%
Switzerland#12Winner: 2.4%Final: 5.8%Semifinals: 13.5%Quarterfinals: 36.6%Round of 16: 59.1%Knockout: 89.9%Group Stage Exit: 10.1%7:00 PMCanada#25Winner: 0.5%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 3.5%Quarterfinals: 12.7%Round of 16: 27.5%Knockout: 62.7%Group Stage Exit: 37.3%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-06-12Canada#25Winner: 0.5%Final: 1.2%Semifinals: 3.5%Quarterfinals: 12.7%Round of 16: 27.5%Knockout: 62.7%Group Stage Exit: 37.3%1 - 1Bosnia and Herzegovina#30Winner: 0.3%Final: 0.9%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 9.6%Round of 16: 22.9%Knockout: 56.2%Group Stage Exit: 43.8%