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Canada World Cup 2026 — 100.0% Round of 16

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 104 of 94 · Rank #9 · 3 MP

How far can Canada go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track Canada's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: July 19, 2026

Canada FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
0.0%
Winner
0.0%
Group Stage Exit
#9
Position
DWLWL
Last 5 matches
Canada are the clear favourites for Round of 16 at 100.0%, currently ranked 9th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

Canada are 9th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 3 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 100.0% chance of round of 16 — with -10 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 5 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, Canada have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how Canada's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.0%Since 2026-07-04
  • Final: 0.0%Since 2026-07-04
  • Semifinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-04
  • Quarterfinals: 0.0%Since 2026-07-04
  • Round of 16: 100.0%Since 2026-07-03
  • Knockout: 100.0%Since 2026-06-18
  • Group Stage Exit: 0.0%Since 2026-06-18

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Mexico Semifinals ChancesSouth Africa Quarterfinals ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Quarterfinals ChancesQatar Quarterfinals ChancesSwitzerland Quarterfinals ChancesScotland Round of 16 ChancesMorocco Round of 16 ChancesBrazil Round of 16 ChancesHaiti Round of 16 ChancesParaguay Round of 16 Chances

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-07-04Canada#9Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%0 - 3Morocco#11Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-28South Africa#5Knockout: 100.0%0 - 1Canada#9Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-24Switzerland#8Quarterfinals: 100.0%Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%2 - 1Canada#9Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%
2026-06-18Canada#9Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%6 - 0Qatar#7Group Stage Exit: 100.0%
2026-06-12Canada#9Round of 16: 100.0%Knockout: 100.0%1 - 1Bosnia and Herzegovina#6Knockout: 100.0%