Skip to main content

South Africa logoSouth Africa

South Africa Group Stage Exit Chances 2026 — 60.6%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 6 of 94 · Rank #33 · 1 MP

How far can South Africa go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track South Africa's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 13, 2026

South Africa FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
0.2%
Winner
60.6%
Group Stage Exit
#33
Position
L
Last 1 matches
South Africa are strong contenders for Group Stage Exit at 60.6%, currently ranked 33rd — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

South Africa are 33rd in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 1 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 60.6% chance of group stage exit — with 88 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 1 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, South Africa have recorded 1 defeat. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their group stage exit probability, South Africa's winner chance currently stands at 0.2%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how South Africa's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 0.2%
  • Final: 0.5%
  • Semifinals: 1.1%
  • Quarterfinals: 7.1%
  • Round of 16: 16.3%
  • Knockout: 39.4%
  • Group Stage Exit: 60.6%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

Qatar Knockout ChancesBosnia and Herzegovina Knockout ChancesScotland Knockout ChancesAlgeria Knockout ChancesAustria Knockout ChancesCuraçao Group Stage Exit ChancesSouth Korea Group Stage Exit ChancesParaguay Group Stage Exit ChancesSaudi Arabia Group Stage Exit ChancesIraq Group Stage Exit Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

Czech Republic#20Winner: 1.0%Final: 2.5%Semifinals: 5.2%Quarterfinals: 20.0%Round of 16: 37.2%Knockout: 62.1%Group Stage Exit: 37.9%4:00 PMSouth Africa#33Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.5%Semifinals: 1.1%Quarterfinals: 7.1%Round of 16: 16.3%Knockout: 39.4%Group Stage Exit: 60.6%
South Africa#33Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.5%Semifinals: 1.1%Quarterfinals: 7.1%Round of 16: 16.3%Knockout: 39.4%Group Stage Exit: 60.6%1:00 AMSouth Korea#35Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.2%Semifinals: 0.5%Quarterfinals: 4.0%Round of 16: 10.7%Knockout: 38.5%Group Stage Exit: 61.5%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-06-11Mexico#9Winner: 4.9%Final: 12.8%Semifinals: 20.8%Quarterfinals: 53.2%Round of 16: 78.4%Knockout: 98.2%Group Stage Exit: 1.8%2 - 0South Africa#33Winner: 0.2%Final: 0.5%Semifinals: 1.1%Quarterfinals: 7.1%Round of 16: 16.3%Knockout: 39.4%Group Stage Exit: 60.6%