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United States Knockout Chances 2026 — 98.4%

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round 8 of 94 · Rank #6 · 1 MP

How far can United States go at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? CupChances simulates millions of possible tournament outcomes to track United States's live odds of advancing from the group stage, reaching the knockout rounds, and winning the title against a 48-team field.

Last updated: June 14, 2026

United States FIFA World Cup 2026 — Key Insights
6.1%
Winner
1.6%
Group Stage Exit
#6
Position
W
Last 1 matches
United States are the clear favourites for Knockout at 98.4%, currently ranked 6th — updated after every match.

Live — Updated at

United States are 6th in the FIFA World Cup 2026 2026 season after 1 matches. Our football supercomputer currently assigns them a 98.4% chance of knockout — with 86 rounds still to play, the final standings remain far from decided.

In their last 1 FIFA World Cup 2026 matches, United States have recorded 1 win. Each result directly shifts the simulation output, and a single run of games can move a team's probability by double digits.

Alongside their knockout probability, United States's winner chance currently stands at 6.1%.

Every 10 minutes during each match, our supercomputer re-runs up to millions of simulations of all remaining FIFA World Cup 2026 fixtures simultaneously — accounting for every team's form, remaining schedule and goal difference. The chart below shows how United States's 2026 season has evolved round by round.

Current Probabilities:

  • Winner: 6.1%
  • Final: 17.4%
  • Semifinals: 28.4%
  • Quarterfinals: 44.9%
  • Round of 16: 63.7%
  • Knockout: 98.4%
  • Group Stage Exit: 1.6%

← View all FIFA World Cup 2026 standings and odds

See also:

France Winner ChancesBelgium Final ChancesBrazil Semifinals ChancesGermany Semifinals ChancesArgentina Quarterfinals ChancesEngland Quarterfinals ChancesNetherlands Quarterfinals ChancesMexico Round of 16 ChancesSpain Round of 16 ChancesPortugal Round of 16 Chances

Next matches

Times in Coordinated Universal Time

United States#6Winner: 6.1%Final: 17.4%Semifinals: 28.4%Quarterfinals: 44.9%Round of 16: 63.7%Knockout: 98.4%Group Stage Exit: 1.6%7:00 PMAustralia#22Winner: 0.7%Final: 2.2%Semifinals: 4.7%Quarterfinals: 11.9%Round of 16: 24.8%Knockout: 78.3%Group Stage Exit: 21.7%
Turkey#27Winner: 0.4%Final: 1.1%Semifinals: 2.4%Quarterfinals: 6.5%Round of 16: 14.7%Knockout: 54.6%Group Stage Exit: 45.4%2:00 AMUnited States#6Winner: 6.1%Final: 17.4%Semifinals: 28.4%Quarterfinals: 44.9%Round of 16: 63.7%Knockout: 98.4%Group Stage Exit: 1.6%

Results so far

DateHomeScoreAway
2026-06-12United States#6Winner: 6.1%Final: 17.4%Semifinals: 28.4%Quarterfinals: 44.9%Round of 16: 63.7%Knockout: 98.4%Group Stage Exit: 1.6%4 - 1Paraguay#37Winner: 0.1%Final: 0.3%Semifinals: 0.6%Quarterfinals: 2.4%Round of 16: 5.9%Knockout: 28.3%Group Stage Exit: 71.7%