Skip to main content
FIFA World Cup 2026·2026-07-06·Round 94

Spain and Belgium Shine as Portugal and USA Face Elimination

By Lorena Laís Mota · · Round-up

In an intense start to the Round of 16, Spain and Belgium have made significant strides, while Portugal and the United States face a disappointing exit from their championship pursuits. Spain edged out Portugal with a 1-0 victory, a result that has boosted their chances significantly, securing their spot in the quarterfinals with a 100% probability, up from 47.2% before the match. Spain now sits comfortably in the top five of the current standings, showcasing their strength in this tournament phase.

Belgium, on the other hand, delivered a commanding performance against the United States, securing a 4-1 victory. This emphatic win not only propelled Belgium to the quarterfinals, with their chances jumping from 52.6% to a guaranteed 100%, but also highlighted their potential as serious contenders in this championship. Their semi-final probability has also seen a slight increase, now sitting at 35.4%.

For Portugal and the United States, the recent results have been a hard blow. Both teams are now out of the race for the finals and quarterfinals, with their probabilities plummeting to zero across the board. The United States' chances of making the quarterfinals were slashed drastically from 49.2%, while Portugal's dropped from 12.5%. This marks a significant setback for both nations, who had high hopes coming into this stage of the competition.

As we look ahead, the focus will be on whether Spain and Belgium can maintain their momentum in the upcoming quarterfinals. The next rounds promise to be filled with excitement and fierce competition, as the remaining teams continue to battle for a spot in the finals.

Live probability analysis

Go to the championship page to see the complete probability analysis with updated title, promotion and relegation chances.

Check full probability analysis