Champions League 2026/27
PROJECTION PHASE FINALE
Instantané des probabilités sur 13 tours entre groupes et phase finale.
Champion attendu
Bayern München
Champion: 25.8%
Tableau des phases éliminatoires
Tableau prévu d'après jusqu'à 1 000 000 de simulations Monte-Carlo.
Knockout Play-off
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Knockout Play-off
GER
FRA92%8%
ITA
AUT85%15%
ITA
83%17%
ENG
GER80%20%
GERGER96%4%
ESPITA94%6%
ITAITA95%5%
ENGENG94%6%
GER
ITA89%11%
ESP
ESP86%14%
GERENG69%31%
GER
ESP59%41%
FRA
ENG78%22%
FRA
TUR63%38%
ESP
NED57%43%
POR57%43%
ENGFRA92%8%
ENGFRA88%12%
ESPESP89%11%
ITA 89%11%
ITAENG83%17%
ENGENG60%40%
ESPITA51%49%
Final
Bayern München
Barcelona
59%41%
Semifinals
Bayern München
Man City
69%31%
Barcelona
Inter
51%49%
Quarterfinals
Bayern München
Roma
89%11%
Barcelona
Real Madrid
86%14%
Inter
Man United
83%17%
Man City
Arsenal
60%40%
Round of 16
Bayern München
1
Dortmund
96%4%
Barcelona
2
Napoli
94%6%
Inter
3
Como
95%5%
Man City
4
Aston Villa
94%6%
Arsenal
5
PSG
92%8%
Man United
6
RC Lens
88%12%
Real Madrid
7
Betis
89%11%
Roma
8
AEK Athens
89%11%
Knockout Play-off
Dortmund
9
Lille
24
92%8%
Napoli
10
LASK
23
85%15%
Como
11
Shakhtar
22
83%17%
Aston Villa
12
VfB Stuttgart
21
80%20%
PSG
13
Liverpool
20
78%22%
RC Lens
14
Fenerbahçe
19
63%38%
Betis
15
PSV Eindhoven
18
57%43%
AEK Athens
16
Sporting CP
17
57%43%
La Phase de Ligue n'est pas terminée — les confrontations de Barrage et de Huitièmes de finale affichées sont projetées à partir des chances de titre actuelles de chaque équipe, pas un vrai tirage au sort.
Tableau des probabilités de phase finale
| # | Équipe | Barrages | Huitièmes | Quarts | Demies | Finale | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 99.8% | 98.5% | 82.3% | 58.9% | 40.1% | 25.8% |
| 2 |  Barcelona | 98.9% | 95.5% | 76.1% | 50.6% | 31.5% | 18.3% |
| 3 |  Inter | 97.6% | 91.6% | 69.1% | 46.9% | 29.8% | 17.7% |
| 4 |  Man City | 98.6% | 92.8% | 67.5% | 41.1% | 23.0% | 11.8% |
| 5 |  Arsenal | 97.2% | 87.9% | 58.7% | 33.0% | 17.0% | 7.9% |
| 6 |  Man United | 95.6% | 82.0% | 47.7% | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% |
| 7 |  Real Madrid | 94.1% | 77.3% | 42.5% | 19.8% | 8.2% | 3.1% |
| 8 |  Roma | 88.0% | 68.7% | 36.0% | 17.6% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| 9 |  Dortmund | 82.7% | 57.4% | 25.4% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| 10 |  Napoli | 74.0% | 48.7% | 21.8% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 11 |  Como | 84.8% | 58.7% | 25.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 86.2% | 59.5% | 25.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| 13 |  PSG | 80.7% | 52.3% | 20.8% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 14 |  RC Lens | 85.3% | 56.6% | 22.4% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 15 |  Betis | 76.1% | 44.9% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 16 |  AEK Athens | 72.2% | 41.3% | 14.6% | 4.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 17 |  Sporting CP | 68.4% | 38.3% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 70.9% | 40.0% | 13.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 73.4% | 42.3% | 14.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 20 |  Liverpool | 78.9% | 45.4% | 15.1% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 21 |  VfB Stuttgart | 77.6% | 43.8% | 14.2% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 22 |  Shakhtar | 62.5% | 33.4% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 23 |  LASK | 57.0% | 28.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 24 |  Lille | 34.6% | 15.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 25 |  FC Porto | 44.3% | 20.7% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 41.7% | 17.9% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 27 |  Club Brugge | 49.2% | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 28 |  Galatasaray | 48.5% | 23.0% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 29 |  Slavia Praha | 43.8% | 20.2% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 30 |  Bodø/Glimt | 51.0% | 22.9% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 31 |  Viking FK | 50.1% | 23.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 32 |  Sabah FK | 32.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 33 |  Slovan Bratislava | 35.3% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 34 |  RB Leipzig | 18.9% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 35 |  Atlético Madrid | 23.2% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 36 |  Villarreal | 26.6% | 7.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Classement de la Phase de Ligue
Classement projeté de la Phase de Ligue sur les 36 clubs.
Group A
| # | Équipe | P | DB | Barrages |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 3 | 5 | 99.8% |
| 2 | Barcelona | 3 | 4 | 98.9% |
| 3 | Como | 3 | 3 | 84.8% |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 77.6% |
| ≈ | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 68.4% |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 3 | 1 | 86.2% |
| ≈ | RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 85.3% |
| ≈ | Betis | 3 | 1 | 76.1% |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 3 | 1 | 94.1% |
| ≈ | Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 78.9% |
| 11 | Arsenal | 3 | 1 | 97.2% |
| ≈ | AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 72.2% |
| 13 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 88.0% |
| ≈ | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 73.4% |
| ≈ | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 70.9% |
| 16 | Atlético de Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 23 | Club Brugge | 0 | -1 | 49.2% |
| ≈ | Slavia Praha | 0 | -1 | 43.8% |
| ≈ | Lille | 0 | -1 | 34.6% |
| ≈ | Villarreal | 0 | -1 | 26.6% |
| 27 | Inter | 0 | -1 | 97.6% |
| 28 | Napoli | 0 | -1 | 74.0% |
| ≈ | LASK | 0 | -1 | 57.0% |
| 30 | Viking FK | 0 | -2 | 50.1% |
| ≈ | Galatasaray | 0 | -2 | 48.5% |
| 32 | FC Porto | 0 | -2 | 44.3% |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 0 | -4 | 41.7% |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 0 | -4 | 32.2% |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 | -5 | 35.3% |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 0 | -5 | 51.0% |
Barrages: top 32 oddsChampion: sorted on detail page
≈ à égalité de points et de stats — classés par probabilité de simulation