Champions League 2026/27
KNOCKOUT OUTLOOK
Probability snapshot across 13 rounds of group and knockout play.
Expected champion
Bayern München
Win: 19.0%
Knockout bracket outlook
Predicted bracket based on hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations.
Knockout Play-off
Round of 16
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Final
Semifinals
Quarterfinals
Round of 16
Knockout Play-off
GER
ESP97%3%
ITA
GER96%4%
BEL
87%13%
ENG
TUR77%23%
GERGER86%14%
ITAITA88%12%
ESPBEL93%7%
ESPENG92%8%
GER
FRA81%19%
ITA
ENG78%22%
GERESP64%36%
GER
ITA53%47%
POR
ENG77%23%
ENG
AUT67%33%
ESP
GER67%33%
ITA
ESP53%47%
ENGPOR89%11%
ITAENG86%14%
ENGESP86%14%
FRAITA85%15%
ESPITA77%23%
ESPENG58%42%
ITAESP51%49%
Final
Bayern München
Inter
53%47%
Semifinals
Bayern München
Real Madrid
64%36%
Inter
Barcelona
51%49%
Quarterfinals
Bayern München
PSG
81%19%
Inter
Man City
78%22%
Barcelona
Como
77%23%
Real Madrid
Arsenal
58%42%
Round of 16
Bayern München
1
Dortmund
86%14%
Inter
2
Roma
88%12%
Barcelona
3
Club Brugge
93%7%
Real Madrid
4
Aston Villa
92%8%
Arsenal
5
Sporting CP
89%11%
Como
6
Liverpool
86%14%
Man City
7
Atlético Madrid
86%14%
PSG
8
Napoli
85%15%
Knockout Play-off
Dortmund
9
Villarreal
24
97%3%
Roma
10
RB Leipzig
23
96%4%
Club Brugge
11
Shakhtar
22
87%13%
Aston Villa
12
Galatasaray
21
77%23%
Sporting CP
13
Man United
20
77%23%
Liverpool
14
LASK
19
67%33%
Atlético Madrid
15
VfB Stuttgart
18
67%33%
Napoli
16
Betis
17
53%47%
The League Phase isn't finished yet. The Play-off and Round of 16 pairings shown are projected from each team's current title odds, not from a real draw.
Knockout probability table
| # | Team | Play-offs | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 99.9% | 96.7% | 74.0% | 48.7% | 31.0% | 19.0% |
| 2 |  Inter | 98.5% | 87.4% | 61.7% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 17.0% |
| 3 |  Barcelona | 99.9% | 95.9% | 72.4% | 46.3% | 28.3% | 16.5% |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 100.0% | 98.4% | 71.4% | 40.2% | 21.7% | 10.9% |
| 5 |  Arsenal | 100.0% | 94.4% | 62.2% | 33.0% | 16.4% | 7.8% |
| 6 |  Como | 99.7% | 85.1% | 48.1% | 24.0% | 11.3% | 5.0% |
| 7 |  Man City | 99.5% | 84.4% | 47.6% | 23.3% | 10.9% | 4.8% |
| 8 |  PSG | 100.0% | 96.4% | 57.6% | 26.8% | 11.5% | 4.6% |
| 9 |  Dortmund | 98.7% | 77.1% | 38.5% | 17.9% | 7.9% | 3.2% |
| 10 |  Roma | 78.7% | 50.5% | 21.1% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| 11 |  Club Brugge | 99.1% | 76.1% | 33.8% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 1.3% |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 99.0% | 71.8% | 29.3% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| 13 |  Sporting CP | 97.8% | 64.0% | 25.4% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 14 |  Liverpool | 98.4% | 66.7% | 25.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 15 |  Atlético Madrid | 74.7% | 38.9% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 16 |  Napoli | 51.9% | 27.8% | 11.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 17 |  Betis | 96.6% | 59.3% | 20.8% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 18 |  VfB Stuttgart | 88.8% | 47.6% | 15.7% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 19 |  LASK | 82.7% | 41.4% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 20 |  Man United | 77.9% | 35.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 21 |  Galatasaray | 81.7% | 39.9% | 12.3% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 22 |  Shakhtar | 55.2% | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 23 |  RB Leipzig | 40.3% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 24 |  Villarreal | 43.0% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 25 |  FC Porto | 40.7% | 15.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 26 |  PSV Eindhoven | 44.3% | 17.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 27 |  Bodø/Glimt | 52.3% | 18.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 28 |  Viking FK | 54.7% | 20.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 29 |  Lille | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 30 |  RC Lens | 16.2% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 31 |  Feyenoord | 32.5% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 32 |  Fenerbahçe | 43.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 33 |  AEK Athens | 18.8% | 5.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 10.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 35 |  Sabah FK | 15.2% | 3.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
League Phase standings
Projected final League Phase table across all 36 clubs.
Group A
| # | Team | P | GD | Play-offs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 12 | 6 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Como | 9 | 13 | 99.7% |
| 4 | Barcelona | 9 | 8 | 99.9% |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 9 | 6 | 99.0% |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 98.4% |
| 7 | Club Brugge | 9 | 4 | 99.1% |
| 8 | Sporting CP | 9 | 4 | 97.8% |
| 9 | Betis | 9 | 2 | 96.6% |
| 10 | Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 99.9% |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 3 | 88.8% |
| 12 | Inter | 6 | 2 | 98.5% |
| 13 | LASK | 6 | 1 | 82.7% |
| 14 | Galatasaray | 6 | -1 | 81.7% |
| 15 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | -5 | 43.8% |
| 16 | Roma | 4 | 2 | 78.7% |
| 17 | Viking FK | 4 | -1 | 54.7% |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | -1 | 44.3% |
| 19 | Bodø/Glimt | 4 | -5 | 52.3% |
| 20 | FC Porto | 3 | -1 | 40.7% |
| 21 | Napoli | 3 | -5 | 51.9% |
| 22 | Villarreal | 3 | -6 | 43.0% |
| 23 | AEK Athens | 3 | -6 | 18.8% |
| 24 | Sabah FK | 3 | -6 | 15.2% |
| 25 | Feyenoord | 3 | -7 | 32.5% |
| 26 | RC Lens | 3 | -12 | 16.2% |
| 27 | Slavia Praha | 1 | -4 | 10.7% |
| 28 | Lille | 1 | -6 | 6.6% |
| 29 | Atlético de Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| ≈ | Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 0 | -16 | 2.2% |
Play-offs: top 32 oddsWin: sorted on detail page
≈ level on points and stats, ordered by simulation probability